Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 052127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
327 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Very challenging forecast due to this being two distinct events, a
winter storm with heavy snow tonight followed by increasing winds
and blizzard conditions on Tuesday. As of right now, the sfc low
is down over eastern SD with the regional radars showing a band of
heavy snow over south central ND. Bismarck has already reported 4
inches of snow from this band. Models forecast this band of snow
to move into the Jamestown to Grand Forks corridor by 9 PM, then
into the northern Red River Valley overnight. Looking at warning
criteria snowfall in the now through 12z Tuesday time frame, with
not much wind. Added Lake of the Woods, northern Beltrami, and
northern Clearwater counties to the winter storm warning that was
issued earlier this morning. Later shifts will have to monitor the
tonight warnings and advisories and see if further expansion is

What is the difference for Tuesday...the strong northwest winds
kick in and the light snow lingers. Had a lot of discussion on
how to handle the transition from snow to wind and whether double
headlines were too confusing. However, the biggest impact from
this event will be the increasing northwest winds on Tuesday.
Want to get the word out now that people may wake up in the
morning and see the fresh snow, but little wind, and think things
are going to be fine. However, the northwest winds will kick in
through the morning and result in blizzard conditions fairly
quickly. How fast is yet to be determined, but tried to time it
into the Devils Lake region first around 12z, west of the Red
River by 15z, and east of the Red River by 18z. Think that this
blizzard warning will eventually need to be expanded further
southward during the day Tuesday, but this is a good starting
point. Otherwise, kept 00z Wednesday as the ending time for all
warnings and advisories, although it could continue into Tuesday
night as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

500mb cyclonic flow around upper low over Ontario to impact the
area with prolonged light snow chances through Wednesday and
Thursday with another 1 to 3 inches of snow possible. Max
temperatures will be in the teens on Wednesday and cooling into
the single digits by Friday as the center of the cold dome of high
pressure settles in. 500mb zonal flow develops by saturday with
temperatures rising back into the teens for weekend highs and the
return of snow chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Very difficult TAF forecasting period. Expect snow to spread over
the TAF sites this afternoon into early this evening. The most
snow will affect KDVL/KGFK/KTVF...with lesser amounts at KBJI and
KFAR. Really not expecting the wind to increase until around
12-15z Tuesday, and then only for areas along and west of the Red
River Valley. These gusty winds will take longer to reach KTVF and
KBJI. However, once the gusty winds make it into the area on
Tuesday, it will be there for the rest of the TAF period. Have
gone with vsbys on Tuesday in the 1 to 3 mile range, but may have
to drop them down a little more.


ND...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027-

     Blizzard Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ008-016-

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-

     Blizzard Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ006-007-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ038.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ002-003-

     Blizzard Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ001>004-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ017-023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ005-006-009-

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ001-004-007-



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