Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 181111
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
611 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
FA...BUT THE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.

FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY ERODE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EVEN AROUND 00Z.
THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING IN THE WEST FIRST...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE VALLEY AREAS UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AND REMAIN AND COULD
GUST TO AROUND 20KT NEAR KDVL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.