Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 140448
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EVIDENT INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT ON
CANADIAN RADAR ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO... AND THOUGH SOME OF THIS WILL DECREASE WITH NIGHTFALL
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO KEEP SCT
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

HAVE REDUCED THE POPS JUST A BIT OVER NORTHEAST ND AND THE
NORTHERN RRV FOR THE EVENING... WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
MEASURABLE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL OVER FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MN. A PRELIMINARY PRECIP BAND WILL DROP THROUGH
NORTHWEST MN FROM TVF THROUGH BJI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
SECOND BAND NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WINNIPEG THROUGH KENORA
AREA APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH A SIMILAR AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NEXT 24
HOURS AND MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE UNSEASONABLY COOL BLYR BEING ESCORTING ACROSS THE FA AS THE
NEXT VORT LOPE SWINGS DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING 500MB LOW. AS IT ENTERS THE FA THIS EVENING ISO SHOWERS
WILL ADVECT IN WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM CAA WITH 6C 925 TEMPS
CONTINUING THE BREEZY CONDITIONS MIXING DOWN THE 30KTS FROM
850MB.

BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE UNDER THE POCKET OF COLDEST 500MB AIR AS
IT TRACKS FROM NEAR LOTW SOUTH NEAR BJI. WITH THE CORE OF THE
COOLEST AIR PUSHING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT DID KEEP THE THINKING
OF THE SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. AS A RESULT MAX TEMPS NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR JULY 14. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM
NW TO SE AS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR ADVECT SOUTH AND THE 500MB
FORCING MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMER AND GRADUALLY MORE HUMID IS THE
MAIN MESSAGE THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY TO A ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE END. BUILDING RIDGE
PORTENDS INCREASING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. THE CWFA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN A BOUNDARY
PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO FRIDAY THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE. GFS REMAINS SLOWER AS DGEX/ECMWF BRING A LEAD SHORTWAVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1 FULL DAY AHEAD OF GFS. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WEST AND SOUTH FROM GFK EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS WITH INCREASING
MID LVL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY BLAYER WINDS. NORTH AND
EAST FROM GFK INTO TVF AND BJI EXPECT AREAS MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA
FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MIDMORNING. AFTER MIDMORNING EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SCT -SHRA AND BRISK NORTHERLY BLAYER WINDS.
CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...EWENS
AVIATION...GUST






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.