Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 050449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CIRRUS ADVANCING EAST MAYBE A TAD FASTER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER.
TEMPS HOLDING UP A BIT IN ERN ND AND UPDATED TO RAISE LOWS JUST A
TAD IN ERN ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW TSTMS INTO DVL REGION EARLY TO MID AFTN. SOME AS EARLY
AS 17-18Z OTHERS LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR THRU THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AND A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS THRU 16Z. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DID BRING IN VCTS TO DVL AND GFK A TAD EARLIER THAN 00Z
TAFS. BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE 18Z-23Z IN DVL AND 20Z-02Z IN
GFK...00Z-05Z IN FARGO AND THIEF RIVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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