Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 101719
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1219 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR A SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY...OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC THEN MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
BY THE PEND OF THE PERIOD. GFS WAS PERSISTENTLY THE FAT MODEL IN
THIS MODEL RUN.

PROBLEM WITH MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS TRACKING
FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE NAM ECMWF AND GEM ON SAT. THE GFS
IS THE COLDEST OF THE SET AND WILL BE THROWN OUT. COLDER AIR SHOULD
MOVE IN SAT LATE.

TEMPS GENERALLY RAISED EACH DAY EXCEPT SAT AND SAT NITE. WILL ADD
LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ON FRI IN NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE
MAY HIT CONVECTIVE TEMPS. SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. NO MAJOR PRECIP SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
EMBEDDED IMPULSES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY MID LEVEL CIGS
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT LOOK
TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE INTO ANY FORECAST SITE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST ND INTO WC MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS...AIDED BY EFFICIENT MIXING. RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 25
PERCENT RANGE ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOCALLY LOWER VALUES
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

SNOWMELT ACROSS THE AREA IS CAUSING STAGES TO RISE ON THE MAINSTEM
RED RIVER...MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.

RAPID RISES WERE OCCURRING ON THE FOREST RIVER AT MINTO
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE STAGE ABOVE FORECAST PROJECTIONS...POSSIBLY
ICE JAM RELATED. ISSUED A NEW FLOOD WARNING TAKING THE POINT INTO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. WATER WAS COVERING A PORTION OF HWY 81 NEAR
MINTO...CAUSING THE ROAD TO BE CLOSED...WITH SEVERAL CITY BLOCKS
AFFECTED IN MINTO ITSELF. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS ALSO RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE LATEST FORECAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
LATER IN THE WEEK.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BUFFALO RIVER AT HAWLEY. THE RIVER
THERE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE TO A LEVEL JUST ABOVE MINOR
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE RED RIVER...EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO ARE FORECAST TO GO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH OSLO FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
THE DEGREE OF FLOODING ON THE RED RIVER IS DEPENDENT ON TOTAL SNOW
MELT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ICE JAMS ARE COMMON AROUND OSLO AND
RIVER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY DURING ICE JAM EVENTS. EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS AT THESE FORECAST POINTS TO CREST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIVER STAGES ARE RISING ON THE SNAKE RIVER NEAR WARREN AND ALVARADO.
SOME ICE JAMMING HAS OCCURRED NEAR WARREN AND PUSHED THE STAGE ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...A CHECK OF THE RIVERS SHOW THAT WATER
IS NOW FLOWING FREELY IN THE CHANNEL...AND ICE JAMMING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE FURTHER IMPACTS. ALVARADO IS CURRENTLY RUNNING
BELOW THE FORECAST STAGE. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO FARM FIELDS NEAR THE RIVER...AND URBAN AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE IMPACTED FOR NOW.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WALSH COUNTY. AREA DITCHES
ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND ALLOW FIELD RUNOFF TO MOVE INTO AREA
WATERWAYS. AS A RESULT WATER IS APPROACHING...OVERTOPPING AND
CLOSING MANY COUNTY ROADS UPSTREAM OF MINTO AND GRAFTON. COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED THAT MANY COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP
ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
SOME TOWNS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...GRAFTON...
MINTO...PARK RIVER...ARDOCH...CONWAY...EDINBURG AND FORDVILLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI






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