


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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860 FXUS63 KFGF 131956 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of wildfire smoke will degrade air quality later this afternoon into evening in northeast North Dakota into northwest and west-central Minnesota. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms both late Monday and Tuesday. The main hazards will be gusty winds, hail, and flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...Synopsis... Surface trough axis/weak frontal boundary has pushed through the central CWA, but will wash out and redevelop further north tonight into tomorrow. Flow becomes more zonal for the start of the work week, with another shortwave pushing the frontal boundary back south Tuesday. Broad troughing over the north central CONUS will bring cooler than average temps and push most of the instability south of our region through mid to late week. Some return flow possible by next Sunday. ...Another round of Canadian wildfire smoke arriving... Satellite loop continues to show band of smoke near the Canadian border behind the weak front, with visibility down to 3-6SM for the most part although a couple of obs have been down to 2 miles. The HRRR smoke model as well as Canadian runs have this area of smoke moving down through all but our far southwestern counties this evening before shifting east overnight. EPA sensors do not seem as poor as they were yesterday on air quality, but smoke is still noticeable and will continue to mention and message. Smoke should not be as much of an issue tomorrow as front moves north and south winds return. ...Marginal risk Monday and again Tuesday... The weak front lifts north toward the Canadian border tomorrow, and strengthens with some fairly warm and moist air coming into our southern counties. Joint probabilities for CAPE over 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear over 30 kts are greater than 60 percent along and south of Highway 200. There is also a 30 to 40 percent probability of the same near the Highway 2 corridor, on account of the uncertainty with placement of the front. Most of the afternoon convection on Monday looks to fire to our west closer to the upper trough digging in, but some storms could sustain themselves eastward into Monday night as the low level jet gets going. Hail to ping pong balls and winds to 70 mph are not out of the question. By Tuesday, the frontal boundary will be moving back to the southeast, with instability mainly over far southeastern ND into west central MN. Much will depend on how Monday night plays out, but there is a chance for some isolated severe impacts in our southeast on Tuesday also. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites, but should see at least a period of MVFR at most sites due to smoke coming down later this afternoon. Conditions should improve to VFR for all but perhaps KFAR and KBJI by the end of the period. Winds that are northwest to southwest under 10 kts will shift more northwesterly with a few gusts to 20 kts this afternoon as a weak cold front comes through. Light and variable winds by this evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR