Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230923
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG





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