000
FXUS63 KFGF 300002
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
702 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

No changes to fcst. tweeked sky a bit as finger of clouds holds a
bit from INL to BJI but still showing some clearing from the south
and southeast. O/w clear tonight... some patchy fog west central
MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Upper level ridge was over the area. Water vapor loop indicated a
short wave over western WY and was moving north/northeast. Short
wave expected to stay west of the area. Sky has cleared off most
places this afternoon. Modified the sky to account for clearing.
Little change to temps for tonight and Fri...cooler in some spots
for tonight. Upper low over KY will drift slowly back north on
Fri. Will add some patchy fog in the southeast zones after
midnight. Little warmer weather for Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Friday Night - Sunday...

The slowly evolving synoptic pattern featuring broad ridging into
the central and eastern CONUS with an upper low over the Great Lakes
will remain in place through the weekend. There will be a weak upper
wave lifting northward into the northern plains from the southwest
CONUS Friday Night which should bring primarily some mid/high
clouds. Our sensible weather, though, should remain fairly quiet
with mild temps through the weekend. Will have to watch to see if
clouds associated with the slow moving upper low to the east make it
back into the area over the weekend as some model guidance suggests.
The GFS/ECWMF bring a weak surface boundary into the Dakotas on
Sunday associated with a shortwave trough up to the north over
Canada, so some potential exists for a few showers/storms by later
Sun/Sun Night, especially over northeast North Dakota.

Monday - Thursday...

The stagnant upper air pattern will finally begin to break down
next week as an upper trough begins to lift into the Plains and
southwest flow develops. However, the trend over recent days has
been to slow down the progression of the trough due to the strong
blocking ridge to the east. Because of this, confidence remains low
as to exactly how the flow pattern will evolve, especially with
regard to the timing of the trough across the area.

Generally speaking, a seasonably warm and increasingly very moist
air mass for early October is expected early next week ahead of a
developing surface low pressure area across the high plains. Showers
and storms will likely increase through the middle of the week with
the approach of the low pressure system, but confidence in amounts
is low at this time, and will depend on the ultimate track and speed
of the system through the region. Models also suggest a low-level
boundary may be oriented SW-NE ahead of the developing low early in
the week somewhere over the northern plains/southern Canada, which
could focus precip, but models differ with respect to location.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The lingering cloud area around Bemidji keeps getting a bit
smaller as it clears from the south and southeast. Until a better
trend can be gotten kept Bemidji with the clouds tonight. In area
of light winds in that area short range models show some
development of late night MVFR cigs in this area into west central
MN so went with this idea. Otherwise sky clear tonight E ND into
far NW MN (TVF) with a south-southeast wind 5 to 10 kts. Some
increase in cirrus into the DVL basin Friday with south-southeast
wind 8 to 15 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Riddle