000
FXUS63 KFGF 010825
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

REGION TO REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA TODAY. SURFACE
HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. FAR SE FA
ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY/CAPE ACROSS S/CENTRAL MN.
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES REMAIN BLO AN INCH AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
VERY WEAK ALONG WITH SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD T
HOWEVER AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THERMAL PROFILE SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT OVERALL QUIET AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT WINDS...SKC AND RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS.

SATURDAY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA. MODEST
INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL EXIST ALTHOUGH SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK AND
BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE N-NE IN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX ALSO WEAK WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S. FOR
THIS WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH CURRENT LOW END POPS. COLUMN WARMS
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVERALL WEAK AND LACK OF
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN ANY PCPN
CONTINUING MUCH AFTER SUNSET AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. WITH BOUNDARY
IN VCNTY WILL HOWEVER KEEP LOW POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH
LOW PRESSURE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SHIFT PCPN POTENTIAL TO OUR
WESTERN FA IF AT ALL AND DID LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NE FA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A
SPLIT PATTERN LATER IN THIS PERIOD. EARLY ON THERE IS FAIR MODEL
CONCENSUS WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN
A BAND OF RASH/TSRA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE CWFA. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSVERSE THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEK....BUT SHOULD FOCUS BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AT
THIS POINT THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH
WHILE THE GEM/DGEX/ECMWF PLACES MOST OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. CONCENSUS OF MODELS SUGGEST LOW END POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD CWFA THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PERSISTENCE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED CU DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...EWENS/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG