Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181549
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Cloud cover along and east of the Red River Valley will slowly
move east today, leaving most areas with mostly sunny conditions.
The main problem will be the gusty northwest winds. Combined with
temperatures in the teens, the winds are making it feel like
temperatures are in the single digits above and below zero. Not
much rise in temperature is expected today, so it will feel brisk
outside. Today`s forecast has these elements captured well, so
only made some adjustments to the cloud forecast. Also took out
any pcpn chances and went with just flurries for the rest of the
morning across northwest Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Upper air pattern remains relatively progressive with a short
wave moving through the area today and another short wave
Sat night/Sun morning. A low amplitude upper ridge will
approach the area Sun afternoon.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough along the
southwestern MAN. The short wave will move southeast and
brush the northern zones will some flurries/light snow this
morning. North-south upper level jet was on the west side of the
trough. Region was in the left exit region the upper level jet.
Weak surface low over western ND will move southeast and bring a
shot of cooler air across the Red River Valley for this morning.
Surface ridge will move over the area tonight with low level warm
advection commencing.

Another weak surface trough will move across the Red River
Valley Sun morning and produce light snow over the
northeast zones late Sat night and Sun morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Little change in the overall weather pattern from what has been
predicted by various models the upcoming week.  Will see several
low pressure systems move east across south central Canada, with
milder temps ahead of it and a sharp cooldown and northwest winds
behind them. Overall precipitation chances pretty small with no
significant amounts. One low will move ESE from the Saskatoon area
to near Winnipeg to just north of Kenora Monday. Mild ahead of it
with 30s and 40s for temperatures, then sharply colder behind it
for Tuesday. A little bit of light snow around Lake of the Woods
Monday evening.

Wednesday may see a weak short wave move southeast across the area
giving small chances for light snow.  GFS model remains the only one
to show this however with ECMWF, global GEM dry.  Dry Thanksgiving
with temperatures near or slightly above normal, then next front due
Friday with colder air by next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

VFR conditions were across the area. Satellite indicated a mostly
cloudy sky with a fair amount of holes in the clouds. Cigs may
fall to around 60 hundred ft. However a narrow trailing band of
clouds over northwest ND and into southern MAN has some MVFR cigs
around 20 hundred ft. Expect the narrow band of MVFR cigs to move
southeast across the forecast area this morning. Also MVFR cigs
will be possible over the northeast zones this afternoon.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions for today and tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JH



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