Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Issued at 949 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Temperatures will continue to be mild tonight, so little change to
what we have going. The recent high-res model runs as well as the
00Z NAM and GFS have been trending further south with tomorrow`s
precip. Pulled our low POPs just a bit further south, but kept
them in the 15-25 percent range as amounts will be very light if
we see anything at all considering a pretty stout mid level dry
layer. With the warm temps and precip mainly during daylight hours
if anything does occur it should be minimal.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The main thing that occurs in the short term is the potential for
some light mixed pcpn very late tonight into Friday morning. At
this point, it appears this will mainly be for areas north of the
highway 2 corridor. GEFS plumes and most model data show only a
few hundredths of an inch of pcpn here and there, so not
anticipating a big impact from this. Also, cloud cover should hold
through the night and keep temperatures on the mild side. The
hazardous weather outlook already mentions this possibility, and
think this will cover it just fine. If it appears that more pcpn
is possible, later shifts can adjust as need be. Other than that,
looking to make a run at 40 degrees in most areas Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Although daytime temperatures will be warm on Saturday, forecast
soundings indicate the potential for freezing drizzle late Saturday
night into Sunday morning north of the Highway Two corridor,
although overall coverage and impacts will likely be minimal.

A strong upper level low is expected to move into the central Plains
Sunday into Monday and will bring the potential for impactful
weather across the region. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across the
Southern/Central Plains Sunday morning ahead of the approach of the
upper level wave. Strong warm air advection northeast of the surface
low will allow for isentropic lift and precipitation chances along
the warm frontal zone draped somewhere from the Central Plains to
the Great Lakes region. With surface temperatures expected to be
below freezing throughout the column in the Northern Plains, snow is
the most likely precipitation type.

While most deterministic models are in good agreement with the
evolution of this system and keep the heaviest precipitation to our
south, uncertainty with the exact track of the surface low and
greatest snowfall still exists. A few GEFS ensemble members show a
more northward track of the low, with GEFS ensemble means showing a
noticeable slow down with the timing of this system over the past few

Additionally, SREF forecasts indicate the potential for an
inch or two of snowfall across much of the CWA. Given this synoptic
setup, analog guidance suggests the potential for at least some
snowfall for much of the River Valley and western Minnesota
counties. However, confidence in snowfall totals is low, especially
north of the I-94 corridor.

There is more confidence in strong winds during the Sunday afternoon
to early Monday morning timeframe. Northerly winds on the backside
of the surface low will usher in colder air with daytime highs for
Monday only reaching the mid to upper teens.

Cooler, more seasonal weather is expected for Tuesday into Wednesday
as an arctic high builds over the western Great Lakes region.
Southerly winds return for Thursday ahead of another upper level low
and precipitation chances late Thursday night into Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Extensive cirrus clouds across the area, but VFR conditions as
some lower clouds have finally moved out of the KBJI vicinity. The
VFR conditions and cirrus clouds will continue through the next 24
hours. Some light mixed precipitation is possible in the forecast
area but think it will stay north of all the TAF sites. Winds
will shift from the south/southwest to the west by tomorrow




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