Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED WESTERN EDGE OF IFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO
TO FFM AND WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER FOG
LOOP ALSO SHOWED CLOUDS WERE SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST. WILL ADD
TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS AT GFK AND FAR THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO
KEEP LOW CIGS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE SCT-BKN CIGS
AS ONE GOES FARTHER WEST OF THE RED RIVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL EXIT EASTERN
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES



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