Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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055
FXUS63 KFGF 300254
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Added a slight chance of showers in far SE ND late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. HRRR and HopWRF tipped the scales to mentioning
something down near the SD border. NAM/GFS have some FGEN in that
area...but limited CAPEs. Just enough to produce a shower or two
on the ND side.

UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A quiet evening is expected across the forecast area. The latest
HRRR model hints at showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along the
ND/SD border late tonight/early tomorrow morning. The latest NAM
also hints at this although MU-CAPE values supporting elevated
convection stay to the south and west through 12z...except in the
devils lake basin. Will continue with a dry forecast tonight for
now and consider the new NAM and HRRR runs for next update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Main forecast challenge will be severe potential for areas along
and south of the Interstate 94 corridor on Monday afternoon and
Monday evening. As for tonight, the cumulus field is already
showing signs of thinning. There are a few showers left from
Mahnomen to Detroit Lakes, but these should not last too much
longer. Drier air continues to move in from the west, with the dew
point at KDVL already at 41F. With the drier air moving in, not
expecting fog formation tonight. Monday will start out nice, but
storms will increase over the central or western Dakotas by
afternoon. SPC day 2 outlook has areas along and south of the
Interstate 94 corridor in a marginal risk, with Sargent County ND
in a slight risk. This event still a day away, so confidence not
great at the moment in timing or placement of the tstm
development. There is a lot of variation yet in the models, with
the ECMWF slower than the American models. Thinking that storms
will fire over the western or central Dakotas in the afternoon and
move eastward and affect this FA during the late afternoon or
evening. Models do show good agreement in another widespread pcpn
event, with a good one to two inches for most of the FA. Models
also agree on showing most of the pcpn rotating northward later
Monday night, with drying working into portions of far southeast
ND.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

On Tuesday the dry slot remains over southeast ND and portions of
west central MN, with the main pcpn band along and north of
highway 200. As the sfc low lifts NE Tue night into Wed, the pcpn
will slowly turn to lighter wraparound bands.

For Wed night through Sunday...Surface high will be dropping into
northern valley behind an upper ridge that should dry things out
Wed night and keep it dry on Thursday...with slightly cooler
temperatures generally in the 60s...with lower 70s in southeastern
ND. Return flow then sets up Thu night with a frontal system
moving into the area early Fri morning, bringing a chance for
showers and thunderstorms through Sat morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The main concern in the TAFs is the possibility of thunderstorms.
The likelihood is very low tonight, but not out of the question at
KDVL late in the night. The better chance comes after 21Z starting
at KDVL and moving east after 00Z at KFAR/KGFK and beyond.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms look to be a high probability
after 00Z.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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