Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LEAD SHORT WAVE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FA SO TRIMMED BACK ON POPS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. SECONDARY WAVE LIFTING THROUGH N
CENTRAL/NE ND AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOW VCNTY JMS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SPOTTY SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES OF NE ND INTO NW MN. WITH SOME CONVERGENCE FROM MODEST
LOW LEVEL JET INTO NW MN AND ABOVE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOWER END POPS THROUGH THE AM. MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
NEAR TERM OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE TWO SHORT WAVES THIS MORNING...ONE MOVING
THRU SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EAST OF IT AND
ONE ALONG THE SASK/MANITOBA/ND BORDER WITH CONTINUED SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE
INTO MANITOBA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THIS WAVE TO MOVE
EAST A BIT AND CONVECTION TO DEVELOP A BIT EAST OVER TIME THE LAST
FEW HOURS. FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA TO MOVE OUT SOON AND SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION IN NW FCST AREA NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE TO LANGDON AREA
WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE TWO THRU NE ND INTO NW MN. AS
SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DIMINISH
SLOWLY. TWEAKED POPS SOME MAINLY TO DROP SOME IN BEMIDJI AREA THIS
AFTN WHERE HAD LIKELY POPS. WENT CHC POPS AS PRECIP POTENTIAL
DOESNT LOOK HUGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

NOT UNEXPECTED SCENARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN SD/SCNTRL ND MOVING EAST MEETING WITH UP
AREA OF STORMS FORMING IN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. FOCUS OF MAIN
RAINS HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH INTO THE RICHER 850 THETA E AIRMASS.
ALSO GOT A NARROW AXIS OF RAINFALL MORE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO MANITOBA. THIS IS LIFTING NORTH. IN
BETWEEN FROM DEVILS LAKE TO HALLOCK SOUTH TO GRAND FORKS NOTHING.
SO WHAT HAPPENS TODAY PAST 12Z. NOT CLEAR CUT. WENT ALONG WITH
WFO DLH THINKING IN THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTHEAST AND MAY INCREASE AGAIN IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN IN FAR
EASTERN FCST AREA AS DEEPER 850 MB MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHD OF
WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO NEAR DETROIT LAKES BY 18Z. AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE
REST OF THE AREA MAY WELL SEE SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...ESP NORTH
AND EAST OF SFC LOW. LEAST CHC IN SW FCST AREA.

MAIN PRECIP AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND SFC LOW TO LIKELY AID IN
COOLING AREA DOWN AND ALSO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT HELP.
USED SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS AND SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MOSTLY 60S DVL
BASIN FRI TO 70S SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AFTER FRIDAY...MODELS DIVERGE WITH 00Z ECMWF BRINGING UP A LOW
PRESSURE AND CONSIDERABLE RAIN ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF ERN SD INTO
NRN MN LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER
WEST WITH THE MAIN RAINS OVER WRN ND INTO SASK/WRN MB. NAM IN
BETWEEN AND FASTER WITH SFC LOW MOVING THRU ERN ND SATURDAY EVE
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN CNTRL ND AND LESS EAST. FOR THE TIME BEING
WENT ALONG WITH HPC THOUGHTS WHICH IS A WETTER ONE FOR WCNTRL INTO
NCNTRL MN LATER SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR LATE WEEKEND...AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE POSITION OF
THE SFC LOW AND GREATEST FORCING FOR PRECIP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THEREAFTER...THE GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MID-WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE FLOW. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO RUN PRIMARILY BELOW AVERAGE...BUT DAILY TEMP TRENDS WILL
HINGE ON HOW EXACTLY THE PATTERN RESOLVES ITS SELF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE OF A LATE FALL REGIME WITH PERSISTENT LOWERED
CIGS AND VSBY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN ND
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS...WITH SPOTS WITH SCT CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING SOME SOLAR TO
PENETRATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS RAISING CIGS A BIT...BUT 925MB
AND 850MB FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THEREFORE...RAISED CIGS A BIT FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD TOWARD VFR CRITERIA. HOWEVER...LOSS OF
HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FILL IN...AND WILL DROP DOWN
TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY AGAIN. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT NOT LOOKING TO BE PREDOMINANT AT THE TAF SITES ATTM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS





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