000
FXUS63 KFGF 221801
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
101 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Skies beginning to CU up across the east and north under the
warming of full solar this morning. Based on recent CAMs any
convective activity appears to be confined to areas in NW MN this
afternoon. Best lapse rates given the full sfc heating and cold
air aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Current convection moving into the valley region will continue to
propagate east with overall weakening trend. Current timing would
have pcpn exiting the FA by mid morning but will monitor and
adjust accordingly.

Upper low will continue to propagate east along the international
border region today. Associated surface boundary currently just
west of the valley should clear the forecast area to the east
early this afternoon. Although low level forcing looks to be
lacking, any lingering outflows from current convection could
combine with respectable cold pool with upper low to produce
afternoon convection mainly over the ne FA. With low freezing
levels cannot rule out some marginally severe hailers with
stronger storms. Column begins cooling so not as warm today.
breezy conditions today mainly west of the valley.

As upper low continues to propagate east any lingering showers/T
should be confined to the far ne this evening. Stronger push of
cold advection should allow temperatures to drop off into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Surface high pressure will build into the FA Sunday for dry
conditions. With quite a bit cooler airmass in place highs in the
70s expected.

Surface high shifts east Sunday night setting up increasing return
flow and warm advection keeping temperatures from falling off too
far. Highs should recover back into the 80s Monday from valley
west.

Next wave to track across southern Canada Monday night into
Tuesday for return of rain chances as frontal boundary crosses the
fa.

Tuesday-Friday...Looks like this period will offer a nice stretch of
weather, if you enjoy daytime temperatures near 80F, mainly dry
weather, and relatively light winds. Models in decent agreement with
the large scale pattern which places the forecast area under the
control of SFC high pressure for much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

VFR today with SCT CU and NW winds gusting to 20 to 25kt. At BJI a
shower is possible this aftn and then MVFR CIG developing sometime
overnight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...TG/Voelker
AVIATION...JK