324
FXUS63 KFGF 290030
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
730 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening in west-central Minnesota and parts of
  eastern North Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Scattered severe storms are occurring in portions of southeast
ND into west-central MN. Main hazards with this would be large
hail, gusts to 70 mph, and perhaps a tornado or two. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 1 AM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...Synopsis...

We start out with weak H7 troughing today and weak cold front to our
west, with a warm front being lifted northward ahead of the cold
front. This will allow isolated to scattered severe storms this
afternoon across portions of eastern North Dakota and much of
northwest and west central Minnesota. As the cold front continues
east overnight, look for slightly drier air to work into the area on
Sunday. Isolate showers and storms are possible, mainly in northwest
Minnesota. Monday brings another chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to northwest Minnesota along a weak trough traversing
northwest flow. A strong storm or two is possible. Minimal precip
chances are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as H5 shortwave ridging
brings return flow into the area heading into Thursday and Friday.
This flow pattern will then start to flatten, bringing thunderstorms
back into the forecast late Thursday and into Friday.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible this Afternoon and Evening...

A warm front lifts slowly north this afternoon. Conditions along the
front support the development of supercells along a line stretching
from southern Richland County through southern Wadena County.
Further north, a subtle cold front is beginning to initiate storms
along a line from eastern Eddy County through eastern Pembina
County. Along the warm front, hodographs are rather straight in the
upper levels, thus supporting splitting supercells that will likely
form into hybrid clusters on the left split side. Large hail up to
the size of golf balls is possible with these storms during the mid
to late afternoon. Any right moving supercells would be capable of
producing tornadoes in addition to large hail; however, current
guidance keeps the better chances in northeast South Dakota and
southwest Minnesota. Regarding the storms along the cold front, the
most likely hazard will be large hail up to 1.25 inches as storms
congeal into clusters along the front. DCAPE values increase through
the afternoon, which could enhance wind risk later this afternoon.
Gusts to 70 mph cannot be ruled out in this environment, especially
during the mid to late afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Main potential impact to TAF sites will be thunderstorm
potential before 03Z, particularly at KFAR. Storms may be strong
to severe bringing erratic gusty winds exceeding 25kt as well as
hail.

Otherwise, winds turn variable and calm before increasing out
of the northwest to 25kt after 16Z Sunday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ