000
FXUS63 KFGF 140444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A COLD NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME WITH VERY DRY SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 10
ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES BRUSHING THE WEST LATE. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE DEGREE OF CLEARING TONIGHT AND HOW
MUCH TEMPS CAN FALL WITH STEADY WINDS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL TUE NIGHT/WED SYSTEM. AS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE
FA BUT NOT MUCH UPSTREAM WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW. CUMULUS SHOULD
FADE AWAY THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL STAY PRETTY STEADY. THE
REGION REMAINS IN A 500MB TROUGH WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH THIS
AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS POINT. WOULD NOT BE MUCH IF IT
DOES OCCUR BUT THERE IS SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED
IN SASKATCHEWAN RIGHT NOW. SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON MON MORNING WITH SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS AGAIN LOOK PRETTY CHILLY. SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE BUT CONTINUED COLD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DAY 3 WPC SNOWFALL MAP SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PCPN MAKING
TIMING THE EVENT PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT. FOR NOW WILL STICK IN THE
CHANCE RANGE FOR PCPN CHANCES AND SEE IF LATER RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL...MAINLY WITH
TEMPERATURES. GFS SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL
US THEN DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW WHICH HOLDS OVER THE FA UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOLDS TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WITH THE
GEM SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION COLUMN COLDER WITH
UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL TURNS OUT WILL SEE
SOME DEGREE OF SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL PCPN LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES POSSIBLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND
4000 FT MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD SURGE AND
DECENT MIXING...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25KT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
MONDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING AT HALLOCK AND OSLO AND MINOR
FLOODING AT ROSEAU...ALVARADO AND ON THE RED AT GRAND
FORKS...DRAYTON AND LATER THIS WEEK PEMBINA.

THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS RISEN TO MODERATE LEVELS AND
CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY ICE. ADDITIONAL RISES OF A HALF OF A
FOOT OR SO ARE EXPECTED. AT ALVARADO RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  AT ROSEAU AND
DILWORTH THE MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO RECEDE. RIVER LEVELS AT
ABOVE WARREN HAVE RISEN TO NEAR (INCONSEQUENTIAL) FLOOD STAGE.
CALLED OFFICIALS TO INVESTIGATE AND THEY FOUND NOTHING UNTOWARD.
BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE SOME WIRE WEIGHT DATA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB