Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221839
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1239 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Adjusted POPs a bit for current radar trends, but overall light
snow continues across much of northeastern ND and western MN, with
some more showery precip further south and west. Will continue
with light snow up to an inch with some mix on the southwest edge
of the precip. Any mix reaching the ground in our area will be
very light and little impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Expect the main impacts in today`s forecast to be light snow falling
on the northeast side of a clipper system rapidly moving from
western ND into eastern MN today. Light snow looks to start in the
Devils Lake basin this morning, spreading east and southeast through
the day. Higher confidence that main accumulations will be along and
north of the Highway 200 corridor, generally less than an inch, but
could see spotty light snow as far south as Interstate 94 and into
west central MN this afternoon. Additionally, cannot quite rule out
freezing drizzle along the back edge in north central MN as drier
mid level air moves in, but this looks less likely than previously
suggested.

Expect a wide range in temperatures today with highs from barely
reaching the 20s in snow covered northwest MN to the upper 30s in
the southern RRV. This will be highly dependent on cloud cover, but
with the low center passing through, winds will be lighter than
Tuesday and will gradually turn northerly behind the system.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Thanksgiving Day is now looking a bit warmer.  Warmer air is just
off to our west and latest model trends are to bring some of it
farther east.  Latest fcst temps show mostly 30s for the area with
40s along DVL-Valley City area.  Given the recent trends could see
the 40s push farther east.  No travel issues Thanksgiving Day.

Fridays system is interesting in that at first the main system
(surface low) is to our north but a 500 mb short wave will move
quickly east into eastern ND Friday morning and then into eastern
Minnesota Friday late afternoon.  As this system moves east it does
intensify a bit at 500 mb and help strengthen a surface low in
Ontario.  A fast moving area of precipitation with the short wave
likely and with quite warm temperatures aloft and at the surface
looks like any precipitation will be rain.  As low strengthens to
our northeast Friday afternoon do look for northwest winds to
increase and did up winds into the 30-45 mph range.

Dry weekend in store with near normal temps on Saturday then warmer
air moving in for Sunday.  Early next week, in particular Mon night
and Tuesday will show a 500 mb trough enter the Pac NW and northern
Rockies.  Long range models have been have issues with any storm
system coming out from this trough in terms of strength and
position.  That is not unexpected given 5-7 days out.  Will leave
blended model soln along which would be high chances of -sn over the
area Mon night into Tuesday.  Strength and amount of any snowfall
highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Light snow over the northeastern TAF sites has brought vis down at
KTVF and KBJI, mostly in the 2-5SM but at times down to 1SM. Snow
has momentarily ended at KGFK but more seems to be coming in on
radar shortly. Ceilings are down to MVFR with the heavier snow
bands but VFR otherwise. The snow will move eastward today and
should exit the forecast area this evening. VFR ceilings will
continue for much of the afternoon but think there will be some
clearing overnight before more mid and high level clouds come back
in tomorrow morning. Winds will decrease and shift around to the
northwest or west tonight as low pressure moves through. Winds
will be back to the south again by the end of the period as the
next system approaches, but under 12 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JR


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