000
FXUS63 KFGF 022121
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
321 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

PRECIP TYPE...SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHES FOR THE PERIOD.

MAIN UPPER LOW IS STILL DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY PARTIAL RAOB SAMPLING FOR THE INITIALIZATION
OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
CONTINUED TO BE POOR EVEN IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE RUNS. SNOW
BAND FROM THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TODAY HAS BROUGHT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION FROM WEST OF FARGO TO NEAR ALEX. HOWEVER...THE BAND
HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINK THAT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
MAY ONLY BE AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
SLICK ROADS AND SOME OF THE MODELS SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE MODELS SHOW THE FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WHILE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH AND DOES NOT MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL MID WEEK.
THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW. ALL START IT OFF AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MN...WITH A DECENT PRECIP BAND OVER THE CWA AND WINDS STARTING TO
PICK UP. HOWEVER...WHEN THE MODELS CLOSE THE LOW OFF AND HOW FAR
WEST REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE HEAVY SNOW BAND WITH EACH RUN...AND THE GFS AND 12Z NAM ALSO
SEEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE 18Z NAM HAS GONE BACK THE
OTHER DIRECTION. EVEN WITH THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION...THE CWA
WILL BE IN A LULL BETWEEN TODAYS LEAD SHORTWAVE AND THE NEXT VORT
MAX...SO CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE TOO BAD WHEN PEOPLE GET UP IN THE
MORNING. WITH THIS AND ALL THE UNCERTAINTY OF US EVEN GETTING 6
INCHES...WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH AND HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES FOR
NOW.

TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF INTO WI TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC
LOW DEEPENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PICKING UP AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE VERY
STRONG LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW COULD BE A PROBLEM. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN
THE WSW AND GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HIGH POPS GOING AND STRONG WINDS...AND THE WATCH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
THE ARCTIC AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT. TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND WITH WINDS
CONTINUING THE CHILL FACTOR WILL BE BRUTAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES TO KEEP A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE 12Z
ECMWF STILL HAS A PRETTY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FA WHILE
THE 12Z GFS HAS MUCH LESS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH SOME GUSTINESS LINGERING WED NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING
THINGS ON THU. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FA WITH
TEMPS HINGING ON CLOUD COVER. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS LIKE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE REALLY
COLD TEMPS AT BAY. HOWEVER DETERMINING CLOUD AMOUNTS WITH GOOD
ACCURACY THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH.

BY THU NIGHT INTO MONDAY CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE. MODELS SEEM TO LINGER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FA A LONG
TIME OR GENERALLY FROM THU NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE 850MB
TEMPS DROP WELL INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY
TO BUILD INTO THE FA BY SATURDAY BUT UNTIL THEN THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KTS. THEREFORE IT WILL BE HARD TO
REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE COLD AIR. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM
MOVES UP INTO THE FA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS
WEAKER SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THIS SYSTEM
WOULD ALSO SPREAD MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION WHICH WOULD
CONTINUE TO MODERATE THE FRIGID AIR OVER THE FA. HOWEVER COLD IS
COLD AND CLOUDS WOULD NOT MODERATE THINGS THAT MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR
WHERE IT IS AFFECTING THE KFAR AIRPORT WITH THE WORST VSBYS AND
LOWEST CEILINGS. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
WHERE IT SHOULD ALSO AFFECT KBJI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL TIME SOME
LOWER VSBYS AND CEILINGS INTO KBJI THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND
SETS UP OVER THAT WAY. FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES IT LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STAY UP
AND BE RATHER GUSTY ACROSS THE KDVL REGION THRU THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. OTHER SITES WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS STRENGTH TO THE WIND
UNTIL MAYBE TUE MORNING BUT WILL ALSO SEE THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH
DIRECTION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-
     052-053.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029-
     030-040.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON