Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1243 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Cloud cover continues to thicken across the FA early this
afternoon. It has become mostly cloudy in all areas except for
southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Went ahead and
bumped up cloud cover amounts a little more in today`s forecast.
Seeing a few echoes on radar across southwest Manitoba, but
nothing much south of the border yet. Several of the high
resolution models continue to show the potential for a few
afternoon showers, mainly north of highway 2. They will likely be
few and far between, and produce minimal pcpn amounts.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Fairly quiet day today. 500 mb low along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan
border near Flin Flon. Water vapor shows drier air moving thru srn
Manitoba and eastern ND attm behind the short wave/front which
moved thru last evening. Sfc boundary just east of the RRV and
will slowly move east this morning and basically wash out. Winds
westerly to 20 kts in E ND and south to southwest in MN 5 to 15
kts. A couple of very weak 500 mb vort maxes will move thru srn
Manitoba this aftn/eve and combined with sfc heating to 65-70 just
enough instability and moisture per soundings for some cumulus and
isolated rw-. MUCAPE quite low below 200 j/kg so no thunder
anticipated. Per coord with BIS did insert a 20 pop in the nrn
fcst area this aftn/eve.

Daily cumulus clearing this evening with winds diminishing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Next bit stronger 500 mb short wave to move thru north central
into southeastern ND Saturday aftn and into MN Saturday late
aftn/eve. Do expect a bit more instability with this with MUCAPES
in the 1000 j/kg range in NW MN into SE ND. Thus idea of a few
showers and isold T seems reasonable.

Sunday will see cooler air move southeast around the upper low and
a likely more instability driven showers esp north and east fcst
area. Activity aided by left quad of a 80 kt 300 mb jet on the
backside of the upper system.

Monday through Wednesday...The main upper trough will be over the
Great Lakes with north to northwesterly flow aloft over the Northern
Plains. Memorial Day will be cool with lingering rain showers mainly
over the eastern counties. With highs about 10 degrees below average
and breezy northwest winds the day will be rather blustery. The
ECMWF has another reinforcing shortwave coming down Tuesday, while
the GFS has a shortwave on Wednesday coming down. Given the
uncertainty with timing of minor waves will keep the blended
solution of some low POPs sporadically throughout the period. Temps
will slowly trend upward through mid week although much will depend
on cloud cover.

Thursday and Friday...Northwesterly flow gives way to an upper ridge
beginning to move into the Plains. Surface high pressure will keep
things dry and temperatures will rise to near or above seasonal


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

West winds picked up a bit more than anticipated, so added in
wind gusts through the afternoon for most TAF sites. These gusts
should slowly fade away by late afternoon and early evening. By
late evening fairly light winds are expected. The cumulus is a
little thicker than expected as well, but if ceilings form they
will still be in the VFR range.




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