Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210151
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
851 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

No significant updates planned for the late evening. Arc of low
stratus and light rain continues to wrap around the low pressure
system lifting across far southern MN...having overspread most
all of the FGF forecast area. HRRR updates show widepsread light
rain over west central MN and the MN Lakes Country transitioning
to more of a drizzle/mist/fog with embedded light rain after
midnight...which is fairly consistent with the 00z NAM12 package.


UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Widespread and very light rain with some few hundredths of an
inch accumulation has spread northward through the Grand Forks
area and will continue a slow expansion into far northwest MN,
northeast ND and at least the eastern half of the Devils lake
Basin.

Areas with a tenth of an inch or more have so far been confined
to the south of a line from Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Fosston.

Cloudy and cool conditions with periods of light rain and a
steady northeast breeze should persist throughout the evening and
overnight. The southern RRV and MN Lakes Country should continue
to receive greater overall rainfall during the evening and
overnight periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Latest runs of the HRRR have been doing pretty well in showing the
timing and north advance of the light rain shield. The light rain
will reach the far northern RRV this evening. Dry low levels will
continue to mean radar at first will be overdoing actual rain at
the ground. Latest models do take upper low more north and over
the Red River valley Sunday morning. Dry slot may work up into
west central MN tonight, while a steady light rain continues in
the RRV. Still looking like west edge of rain JMS-DVL. With this
in mind not a lot of further changes were made to the grids. Main
area of light rain will shift northeast Sunday, though lingering
patches of sprinkles/drizzle may remain behind it. Rainfall
amounts remain unchanged from prev thoughts with well under 0.10
inch DVL region to 0.25 to 0.50 GFK/FAR to a bit over 0.50
BJI/PKD/ADC region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Upper low moves remains over nrn MN Sunday night. Then a
secondary short wave will drop south thru western half of ND and
Monday helping to keep the upper low over nrn MN. Enough clearing
may occur so that some sun will lead to destabilization Monday
with heating and cause showers to form with the cold air aloft.

Upper low/trough will exit area on Tuesday with improving
conditions.

For Wednesday...surface high pressure remains in control and the
upper ridge begins to shift across the Dakotas and Minnesota. With
return flow and the shifting of the upper ridge...expect
temperatures to rebound with values in the low 70s. Otherwise by
Friday...an area of low pressure and trailing cold front begins
crossing the region...with increased chances for showers or storms.
Little temperature change is expected through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Expect widespread MVFR conditions in low clouds and light rain
across the central and southern Red River Basin...with areas of
IFR CIGS developing during the overnight...especially along and
south of a Jamestown to Fargo to Bemidji line. Across the Devils
Lake Basin and northern Red River Basin expect areas of MVFR
conditions in low clouds and very light rain. Patchy IFR
conditions in low clouds and very light rain are possible from
Grand Forks and Grafton...eastward into the Red Lakes during the
early morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Gust



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