Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Winds gradually increasing in the west with tightening pressure
gradient as SFC low pressure in SW ND pushes to the NE. A radar
returns reaching the ground in a few places with -RA at DVL and
webcams showing wet pavement in the DVL BSN. 15Z SPC HRRR run
did have a line of convection developing in south central ND and
moving along the SD/ND border this evening...will continue to
monitor to see the if that trend continues.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Main impacts in the short term will be wind and rain/T potential.
Mid level wave currently over the northern rockies will propagate
NE today. Associated surface low/boundary will reach the central
dakotas by late afternoon. High resolution short range models and
cams have backed off on rain potential in warm advection zone over
the FA from late morning into the afternoon. Nearly all guidance
limits shower potential to northern tier counties where there is
more available moisture and adjusted pops accordingly. Gradient
tightens up this afternoon as low approaches. GFS model soundings
show mixed layer to 850mb with 40 to 50kts through the layer. Do
not feel winds will be that strong but areas west of the valley
could approach advisory criteria for a couple of hours late this
afternoon. Will hold off on headlines but will need to monitor.
As clouds thicken this afternoon temperatures will not be quite as
mild but still above average.

Showers should increase in coverage tonight mainly east of the
valley as column will be more moist and lift to increase as nose
of upper jet approaches. T potential continues mainly during the
evening hours. Brunt of the pcpn should exit the east after
midnight. Temperatures will remain mild with clouds and relatively
warm column.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Next wave ejecting from west coast trough will track across the
central plains. This will put the best chance for showers across
the southern FA. Cloud cover will affect temperatures however with
overall warm start and minimal cooling through the column above
average temperatures to continue.

Cooler temperatures back towards average Tuesday as column
steadily cools. Low confidence on Pcpn chances so for now will
keep dry but this could change.

Long wave trough over the Gulf of AK weakens and moves a little east
through the period. Low amplitude ridge and trough develop over
western and eastern North America.

The ECMWF was a little faster than the GFS through the period. The
ECMWF has been trending slower and farther north and the GFS has
been trending slower and farther south. The forecast area remains in
northwest flow aloft. Short waves forecast to move across southern
Canada Wed through Sat.

Little change to high temperatures for WEd through Fri. Sat highs
were increase one to three degrees over yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

SE winds the may concern today with VCSHs and a few gusts in the
25 to 30 kt range this afternoon and evening. Convection potential
to be monitored into the evening and overnight. MVFR CIGS at BJI
possible for a brief period late tonight as moisture streams
northward before winds turn to the southwest.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.