Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A capping inversion has prevented thunderstorm development across
much of the area this afternoon, resulting in scattered showers
across the southern half of the forecast area. By early this
evening, the surface cold front will drape across approximately from
Baudette to Mahnomen to Lisbon. For areas northwest of, or
behind, the front, this will result in cooler, drier air filtering
in, leaving dry and pleasant conditions for later tonight and

Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected to fire tonight
across another boundary moving north into South Dakota and
southern Minnesota. As this boundary and the related system
continue to move north and east tonight, the potential exists for
these strong to severe level storms to move into areas along and
south of Interstate 94, in portions of the far southern Red River
Valley and west central Minnesota. The main threats expected with
these storms will be hail to an inch and a half in diameter and
wind gusts to 60 mph, but an isolated tornado is also possible.

On Wednesday, drier northwest flow develops aloft with surface high
pressure moving in from Saskatchewan. Expect more sunshine Wednesday
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and a northwest breeze.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Minimal weather impacts in the extended period with 500mb ridging
stretching well north into the Canadian rockies and prairies. As a
result a quiet weather pattern will take hold across the forecast
area with seasonal temperatures and SFC high pressure in place for
the rest of the week. A chance for rain does enter the picture some
time between Friday night or Saturday night as a weak front or
trough passes. Timing at this range difficult to nail down as is
thunderstorm coverage but there is a chance currently across the
entire area. Temperatures for the period will be at to just above
normal with plentiful sun and low to mid 80s expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

MVFR cigs in west central Minnesota will continue to lift this
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through the period, despite
some brief isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening
south of GFK/BJI. Winds will shift from south to north this
afternoon and evening as a front moves through.




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