Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Split flow continues across North America with the northern stream
over southern Canada/northern states and the southern stream over
the central and southern states. In the northern stream, water vapor
loop indicated a short wave trough from southeast SASK to MT. Only
mid and high level clouds associated with the trough along the
International border and into Canada. Trough will move across the
area this afternoon and tonight.

Upper level ridge over the Pacific northwest will move across the
area Tue with the upper level jet to the north. Low temps tonight
should be slightly higher. Precipitable water rises to over half an
inch on Tue night and Wed.

Another weak short wave will move across southern Canada on Wed.
Will add low pops over the Angle Inlet in the far northeast zones.

Upper level trough in the southern stream will be far enough south
and east to keep precip south of the area on Mon afternoon/Mon

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

500mb ridging over the northern plains on Thursday begins to slowly
shift east on Friday. 850mb temps continue to look very mild through
this time frame. Main question will be the degree of mixing, with
fairly light south winds throughout. High temps look to rise above
freezing both days and will probably be warmer over the treed area
of our MN FA. This is much like a spring melt scenario, which
results in fog overnight. How any fog burns or does not burn off
during the day then affects temps the next day.

A blocking pattern over the eastern states develops by the
Saturday/Sunday time frame. Therefore short wave energy over the
central plains on Saturday morning lifts northward and into the FA
during the afternoon. By Sunday another 500mb low forms over the
southern plains, while the northern piece continues to affect this
FA. Guidance brings in chances for light pcpn, which seems to make
sense. Models do show cooler 850mb temps both days, although
guidance does not show much change from Thursday/Friday highs. How
this turns out will mainly affect pcpn type, with the current
forecast calling for mixed pcpn.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

VFR through the period with no cigs anticipated.




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