Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 201123
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK






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