Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

No changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Showers and most clouds have exited off to the east, but a few
clouds linger over the Lake of the Woods area. Visibilities have
dropped at Cavalier, but will hold off to see if it sustains or
gets worse before including fog mention.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A few lingering rain showers near BJI, so adjusted POPs up a bit
for the next hour or so before the showers finally move out of the
area. Sat loop still shows clouds have cleared out of the west and
will push out of the eastern counties around 03Z.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A short wave continues to move east along the Canadian border late
this afternoon. This is helping to push scattered showers through
the area as well, with these showers moving east at about 35
knots. At this rate, all the remaining pcpn will be east of the FA
in another hour or so. After this exits, it will be dry until the
next wave arrives and follows about the same route, beginning in
the far northwest FA Saturday afternoon. Wind has been the other
big story today. Winds have been quite gusty since mid morning.
These winds will begin to decrease a bit after the clearing line
comes through and they shift a bit SSW. Much lighter speeds are
forecast for tonight into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The long term will be relatively quiet with a few periods of rain
showers, mainly in the mid to late4  part of next week.  For
Saturday, a zonal pattern across srn MB will bring a sfc low across
the South Dakota.  An inverted trough associated with the low will
then bring a chance for light rain showers along the international
border Saturday night. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s
for the majority of the long term period while daytime highs will
generally be in the 50s.

An amplifying ridge over the northern Rockies will ensure dry
weather and ample sunshine for Sunday and Monday.

A more SW flow pattern sets up aloft by Tuesday, with the first of
two mid-plains cyclones developing as Gulf moisture becomes more
available next Tuesday.  The best chance for precipitation will be
Tuesday night into Wednesday as warm advection showers lift into
west central Minnesota mainly Wednesday morning.  At this point,
will keep all rain showers as potential for convection decreases
significantly by late October.  There are significant differences
between ECMWF and GFS on timing and placement of precip, but GFS is
producing the majority of the POPs in the SuperBlend and yields no
CAPE for the period, hence only mentioning rain showers. Wednesday
night will be dry before the next system brings a chance for showers
across the area near the end of the week.  There are also borderline
rain-snow mix conditions for the latter part of the week...however
with the GFS being dry and the ECMWF showing above 0 C temps at H850
and H825 levels where it indicates precipitation, will remove any
mention of snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions continue across the CWA. A few sites in the
northern forecast area have low dew point depressions, but further
south it is fairly dry. Winds are from the west to southwest
across the ND side and this will shift into the MN side later
tonight as the surface trough moves east. The winds will diminish
towards morning and become light and variable. Some high res
models still put out fog east of the Red River, but the MOS
guidance keeps lower vis out. Given the west winds will keep fog
out of the TAF sites. Higher mid level clouds will move in later
in the period.




LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.