Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 162046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
246 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Temperatures and if we get any fog formation overnight are the
main challenges for the period.

Upper low currently lifting through the Central Plains will be
staying well to our south and east tonight. There could be some
high clouds from the system over the southern counties but we will
be missing out on any precip. The models are all in fairly good
agreement with high pressure to the southwest tonight. The western
counties should stay in light west winds while the east will be
more variable. With light winds and a bit of melting today in some
areas, think the eastern counties will have a chance for fog
overnight as lows drop to the single digits and low teens. The
SREF and short range blends back this up with lowered visibility
mainly along and east of the Red River. Not out of the question
that the west will see some fog also, but with more wind it does
not seem as likely.

Tomorrow, the trough over southern Canada deepens, with
southwesterly winds picking up throughout the day. With the
increasing southwest winds eventually moving into western MN think
the fog will be scoured out of the eastern counties and should not
hang around all day. With some decent mixing, along with sunshine
in the afternoon, highs should be again a few degrees warmer than
today in the 20s to low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Tuesday night through Friday... Most of the Northern Plains area
remains under the rather warm and protective bubble of an H5
shortwave ridge in an otherwise split-flow jet stream pattern which
will persist across central NOAM. During the period expect dry
conditions with unseasonably warm temperatures... leading to daytime
highs above the thaw point but nighttime lows below freezing.

Existing deep snowpack conditions and an overall low sun angle
at this time of the year will result in slow overall snowpack warming
and little significant snowpack melting. However...roadways and
walkways will experience more rapid response and a tendency for
slushy and slippery conditions during the day with a return to icy
conditions each night. Patchy nighttime fog could also start to
develop through the period.

Late Friday into Monday...a Rex Block pattern starts to resolve in
the H5 flow across the Central Plains on Friday...with H5 shortwave
trof moisture and energy more likely to arc up into the Northern
Plains. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate widespread light mixed rain
and snow during the coming weekend... with low level airmass
temperatures remaining well above long term averages through the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

All sites are VFR and will remain so for the next six hours.
Biggest question is if we will get some fog formation overnight.
Many of the model solutions, including the blends, have reductions
in visibility mainly along and east of the Red River. MOS guidance
is not nearly as bullish but some have vis going down into the
3-5SM range. Several places were down to 3-5SM BR this morning,
and with more moisture expected tonight it is possible that
visibilities will go down. Kept the mention out of KGFK and KDVL
for now as they will have northwesterly winds which are
unfavorable, but not out of the question that they could see some
decreases also. Have 2SM at the lowest at KTVF, with KFAR and KBJI
in the MVFR vis ranges. Some recovery by the end of the period.




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