Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 211455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1055 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Northern Michigan centered between Ohio Valley low pressure and a
moisture starved cold front dropping south into Lake Superior.
Region remains completely devoid of any appreciable low level
moisture...a fact made evident by local 12z sounding showing complete
dearth of moisture below h7. Some moisture well above this
layer...enough so to continue to result in patches of cirrus
traversing above the landscape. While cirrus should continue to of mid level moisture associated with that approaching
front will make a run into at least the northeast sections of the
area later today into this evening. Even had some sprinkles
reaching the ground across Ontario with this moisture axis. Per
trends and simple surface rooted deep layer dry wedge...not
expecting the same as it moves into our area.

Fire weather concerns: Temperatures will continue to warm...with
afternoon readings once again pushing well into the 70s. Mixing
heights at around 10kft will also allow rh values to plummet...resulting
in critical levels being achieved for most. Winds will remain
fairly light (at times a touch gusty)...but should fall below
critical values. specific fire headlines
needed...although no doubt will continue elevated fire danger
wording in all our hazardous weather products.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

High pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and
the Great Lakes region early this morning. Low pressure continues to
make its way eastward thru the Ohio Valley and into the
Appalachians...producing areas of showers and a few thunderstorms
from Nrn Indiana thru Ohio...West Virginia and Virginia. Nrn edge of
the thicker cirrus shield associated with this convection to our
south and east remains over all of Lwr Michigan and far Ern Upr
Michigan...helping to keep temps in the 40s to lower 50s early this

Low pressure will continue to slide east to the mid Atlantic states
today. Thick cirrus shield will follow suite. However...a weak
moisture-starved front will drop south out of Ontario and just clip
our CWA...resulting only in an increase in mid clouds this afternoon
and evening. High pressure and dry air will then be reinforced
across the Wrn Great Lakes region overnight in the wake of the
passing front. Overall sky conditions today and this evening will be
partly cloudy...with some clearing overnight. Light wind regime will
again allow for lake breeze development again by midday. High temps
will warm mainly into the mid 70s for most of our CWA...with cooler
temps near the lakeshores as is usual for this time of year. Low
temps tonight will cool back into the 40s across our entire CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

...Continued nice and warm through early next week...

Ridging at the surface and aloft reestablishes itself across the
region Sunday and holds into Monday. Not quite as warm Sunday but
Monday should be very warm once again. Elevated fire danger this
weekend due to warm afternoon and early evening temperatures and low
relative humidity (dry airmass). The wind picks up some on Monday so
fire danger could even rise to above elevated (but plenty of time to
assess this). The pattern then becomes a little more chaotic with an
initial piece of energy emerging out of the western trough ramming
into the ridge in place Tuesday. More pieces of energy then break
free of the main long wave western trough for the middle and end of
next week. This will lead to chances for showers and slight chances
for thunderstorms (we need the rain so bring it on!). There is even
a chance for strong to severe storms Thursday depending upon the
amount of daytime heating and resultant instability as a surface
warm front most likely sets up across or just to the south of the
forecast area. Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly
above average late May highs through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all Nrn Lwr Michigan TAF sites thru
Sunday morning as high pressure remains the dominant weather
feature. A weak moisture-starved front will swing thru Nrn
Michigan this afternoon and this evening...resulting only in some
additional mid clouds. Lake breezes will once again develop today
as our weak wind regime continues with high pressure centered overhead.


Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the weekend as
high pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great
Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Sunday as well.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Sullivan
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