Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 120215
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1015 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Mid level trough axis continues to rotate across the region,
providing just enough forcing and remnant moisture to continue to
generate a few light showers. Conditions look slow to change for
the remainder of the night, with still plenty of low and mid level
moisture set to rotate south across our area. Forcing remains
limited, so not expecting nothing more than a few light showers,
which look to remain widely scattered at best. Temperatures will
continue to slowly fall overnight as cold air advection continues,
with lows by morning likely dropping into the upper 50s for most.


&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms into this evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...A few thunderstorms producing heavy
rain...lightning and possibly some small hail.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface low center has pushed just east
of the Straits area this afternoon...with the associated cold front
moving thru our SE CWA attm. Upper level trough axis is following
right behind the surface low and cold front...marking the leading
edge of a more uniform OVC low cloud area thanks to wrap-around
moisture and stronger CAA. Temps have only warmed a few degrees
behind the cold front today...but have reached to almost 80 degrees
around APN and OSC just ahead of the cold front. Majority of the
thunderstorm activity and continued threat remains right around the
surface low and just ahead of the cold front...and this will remain
the case as we head into early evening. Once diurnal instability
begins to wane toward sunset...thunder chances will come to a close
but scattered shower activity will continue thru the night and into
Saturday morning thanks to lingering wrap-around moisture and deep
cyclonic flow. By Saturday morning...remaining shower activity
should be confined to NE Lower Michigan...with an overall
diminishing trend thru the day.

Temps will be on the cool side for the next 24 hours (at least). Low
temps tonight will drop into the 50s. High temps on Saturday will
warm mainly into the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...High Pressure for a Couple of Days ...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...As the sfc low moves on into Quebec, the
sfc high begins to build into the forecast area. This is expected to
clear out the skies Saturday night and remain that way through most
of Sunday. There is some fog potential each night as the winds
decouple with the sfc high over the region. The models are hinting
at some slight chances for afternoon convection on Monday as a 500
mb shortwave moves through, but the overall theme that the models
tell are that Monday should be dry.

Primary Forecast concerns...concern with the 500 mb shortwave
trough that moves across N Michigan during the afternoon, make for
a low confidence forecast. The model blends show a 10% bull`s eye in
portions of N Lower and E Upper where lake breezes could set off
some convection. The 00z ECMWF shows a chance while the GFS and NAM
do not. So something is possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...At or Above Normal High Temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms possible Thursday.

Extended (Monday night through Friday)...A 500 mb ridge builds into
the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday and moves into the region Wednesday.
This will lead to a little above normal temperatures. It looks like
it would continue to build into Thursday on the GFS, but not on the
ECMWF. So we will leave the chance of thunderstorms for now, as the
shortwave that the ECMWF shows moves into the region. The
Thursday/Friday forecasts are low confidence as the models disagree.
However, the temperatures look to remain around normal at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Plenty of low level moisture will continue to pinwheel across the
taf sites through tonight as low pressure only slowly pulls off to
the east. MVFR cigs are expected, with the potential for even
lower cigs during the early morning hours. May yet see a few light
showers impact the sites, but these should be of little
consequence. Moisture departs from west to east Saturday, bringing
gradually decreasing cloud cover during the morning, with plenty
of sun expected for the afternoon. Mostly light winds expected
through the period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria along much of
our Lake Michigan shoreline areas tonight and Saturday as NW winds
gust to 15 to 25 kts in the wake of departing low pressure.
Scattered showers will linger across the area tonight into
Saturday...with a few thunderstorms possibly thru early this
evening.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MR



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