Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260811
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
311 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NRN MICHIGAN IS STUCK BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LATTER IS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN DOUBLE JET
STRUCTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS FEEDING MOISTURE
OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE STORM. HEAVY WET SNOWS WERE STILL
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. AHEAD OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FEEDING INCREASINGLY DRIER
ARCTIC AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DESPITE A FAVORABLE NORTHERLY WIND
FOR LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS...TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A DECAY OF THE LAKE
STRATUS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED OVER LAKE
HURON THOUGH...AND AN EASTERLY TILT TO THE CLOUD BEARING WIND HAS
BROUGHT THIS STRATUS INTO SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE HURON.
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...A DRAINAGE FLOW FROM ONTARIO HAS RESULTED
IN CLEAR SKIES AND THE COLDEST OF TEMPERATURES...IN THE -10F TO
-20F RANGE. ACROSS NRN LOWER...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0F TO
-15F. WINDS WERE AVERAGING NEAR 5MPH AND RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS
AVERAGING -10F TO -20F...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE EAST COAST STORM WILL RACE NE AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...WHILE THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS SE AND EVENTUALLY
CENTERS ITSELF SMACK DAB IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE
TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ARCTIC DRY AIR INFILTRATE THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ICE GROWTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID 5F TO 15F. DESPITE A NW/N LOW LEVEL
WIND...LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD BE FINDING THEMSELVES HARD TO
PERSIST/DEVELOP TODAY...EVEN MORE SO WITH SOME DIURNAL PROCESSES
TRYING TO MIX WITH INCREDIBLY DRY AIR (PWATS LESS THAN 0.1").
BELIEVE THAT SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TODAY AFTER SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED LAKE CLOUD POTENTIAL
IN THE NW/N FLOW REGIMES. MAYBE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
COMPONENT TONIGHT...CAN SOME OF THIS CLOUD EXPAND SOMEWHAT...BUT
STILL BELIEVE THAT SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS
LESS THAN 10MPH TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE -5F
TO -15F RANGE...WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL -10F TO -20F WIND CHILL.
THIS...ATTM...WILL BE JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY NEED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT LATER THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SOME CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE COMING DAYS...WITH MATURATION OF A
MORE DEFINED SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND. GRADUAL RETREAT OF NORTHERN BRANCH WILL FORCE A DEPARTURE OF
COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
(GOOD RIDDANCE)...WHILE DEEPENING SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGHING FORCES
DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT MORE NORTH
DISPLACED BAROCLINIC AXIS. ABOVE WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO BRING
GRADUALLY MILDER (HIGH CONFIDENCE)...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT MORE
ACTIVE (SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE) WEATHER HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING STAGES OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDRESSING LATE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK SNOW CHANCES.

DETAILS: AND SO IT BEGINS...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STARTING THE UPWARD
TEMPERATURE TREND ON FRIDAY. NOW...SURE DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING CLOSE
TO NORMAL...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS WILL BE A
GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY. TACK ON A
FEW DEGREES MORE FOR SATURDAY...WHEN READINGS ACTUALLY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 20S FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE (IT`S A SAD
STATE OF AFFAIRS WHEN ONE GETS EXCITED ABOUT BREAKING 20 FOR THE
LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY). OTHERWISE...JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH COMPLETE VOID OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. SUPPOSE A
LAKE INDUCED FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...CERTAINLY
NOT WORTHY OF A DIRECT MENTION OF IT IN THE FORECAST. ANY LAKE
CLOUDS LOOK TO MIX OUT DURING THE DAY...LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MORNING SUNSHINE
SATURDAY LOOKS TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS INITIAL
STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION BEGINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING CENTRAL
PLAINS SYSTEM (MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL A COMPLICATED
SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...OWING TO
POSSIBLE STREAM INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF)...WITH ENERGY EXPECTED
TO PINWHEEL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH...ALL THE WHILE MORE ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. DEFINITELY
NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE PHASE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY KINDA
GETTING SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MID LEVEL CONFLUENT AXIS. AS
A RESULT...ANY SURFACE PRESSURE RESPONSE LOOKS MUTED AT BEST...WITH
MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAN ACTUAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT. LACK OF
STRONGER RETURN FLOW STILL LOOKS TO KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE/MOST
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES GETTING UP NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH ABOUT
ON PAR WITH NORMAL VALUES THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND MORE THAN ENOUGH
TO ENTICE A LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. PERSISTENT FORCED WAA
SHOULD COMPLETE THE MOISTENING PROCESS...WITH APPROACH OF SHEARING
SOUTHERN WAVE HELPING THE CAUSE. GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A TOUCH TOO
AGGRESSIVE COMPLETING SATURATION...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUING MUCH OF SUNDAY. SOUTH DISPLACED BAROCLINIC AXIS AND
SUGGESTION BEST LIFT REMAINING ELEVATED AND REMOVED FROM THE DGZ
SHOULD DEFINITELY NEGATE ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT.
DURATION WILL COMPENSATE SOME...AND SURE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
BETTER FLAKE PRODUCTION IN TRANSIENT POCKETS OF BETTER FORCING.
UPSHOT TO THE THE ABOVE...SUPPOSE A COUPLE INCHES IS DOABLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL BEGIN THE STEP-UP
PROCESS WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN INCREASING GUIDANCE
SUPPORT ON THE ABOVE.

BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. UNCERTAINTY IS EXTRAORDINARY HIGH...ALL OWNING TO
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND POTENTIAL STREAM INTERACTION. GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT...RANGING FROM A DEEPER/FURTHER NORTH
OUTCOME (RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO) TO ONE OF SOUTH SUPPRESSION AND LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR AREA (AND PLENTY IN-BETWEEN). GIVEN SET-UP...ALL ARE
EASILY PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES...AND HAVE A SNEAKY SUSPICION THIS ONE MAY
TAKE SEVERAL MORE DAYS UNTIL A MORE CLEAR CUT TREND IS ESTABLISHED.
WHATEVER THE SCENARIO...GULF LOOKS OPEN FOR BUSINESS...AND ANY
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. NOT HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WORTHY YET...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE REGION AS STRONG AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SRN
CANADA. WE`VE ALREADY LOST THE MVFR AT TVC DUE TO THIS DRY AIR AND
POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL ICE FORMATION...DESPITE A FAVORABLE NORTH
FLOW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME EXPANDING LOW CLOUD OUT OVER
LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO APN AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AS ICE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN MORE OPEN WATER AND ABILITY TO GENERATE
LAKE INDUCED STRATUS.

DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH...IF ANY...STRATUS AROUND DESPITE FRIGID
UNDER 10KT NW WINDS THURSDAY. ICE COVER AND DRY AIR PREVENTING
THAT. THIS LEADS INTO THURSDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD



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