Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 302002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

...PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SOUTHWEST...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. MEANWHILE...995 MB LOW PRESSURE (OUR SYSTEM FROM
YESTERDAY) WAS NOW OVER EAST CENTRAL QUEBEC. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THAT THE CLOUDS WERE FINALLY ERODING AND PUSHING OUT OF THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WERE ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...VERY TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE TRACK AND AFFECTS
OF INCOMING ALBERTA CLIPPER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THIS REGARD AND BRUSH SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SOME
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNEAKY F-GEN FORCING
NOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WOULD SPARE
THE AREA FROM ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS A BIT AS WELL AS LOWERED OVERALL QPF. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION TYPE MODELS DO VARY IN THIS REGARD WITH THE NAM STILL
HOLDING ONTO A 2500 FOOT ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL AT MANISTEE...BUT
OVERALL MOSTLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL ONLY AN INCH OR SO IS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS KINDA LOW AS TO HOW THIS
WILL ALL PLAY OUT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SLIPPERY
ROADWAYS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE. LARGE RANGE OF LOWS...FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH
TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDER POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: SNOW ENDING ON TUESDAY AND THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
MORNING

(03/31)TUESDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE AN ENERGY EXCHANGE BETWEEN THE SFC
LOW ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT FORMS IN N ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THINK THAT GFS IDEA OF
MORE PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO AFTERNOON IS A LITTLE TOO
AGGRESSIVE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT, AND THE BEST FORCING
WOULD BE WITH THE SFC LOW HEADING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
WOULD SEEM TO CREATE SOME COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE THAT SHOULD AID IN
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE GOING
FORECAST OF LOW CHANCE IN THE MORNING AND DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

(04/01)WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SFC HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BY THE EVENING IN E
UPPER. HAVE LOW CHANCE WITH THAT AS I AM NOT FULLY CONVINCED OF IT
WITH THE LOWER (850 MB AND BELOW) WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER, AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE COLD FRONT WITH IT, THE
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD FILL IN.

(04/02)THURSDAY...AROUND 12Z, THE SHOWALTER INDEX FALLS TO AROUND 0C
OR JUST BELOW 0C ON BOTH MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH 18Z, MAINLY ACROSS N LOWER. THEN AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH NE LOWER, THERE WILL BE ONLY A PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE ANY THING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

TO START THE PERIOD...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RATHER CHILLY AIR FOR THE
EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ONLY CONCERN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WEAK AND RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED
DISTURBANCE THAT TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING-SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ONLY LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES OR
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEYOND THAT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
DISORGANIZED ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION LOCALLY. OF COURSE BEING A
WEEK AWAY...STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT THIS MIGHT BRING FOR
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

IN TERMS OF THE DEGREE OF COLD...A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE APPROACH
WOULD SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR SAGINAW BAY FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES VERIFIED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ADVERTISED...BUT EITHER WAY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LOOKS
ATTAINABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY TOUGH FORECAST. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD LIFT OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT RETURN AT MBL AND TVC LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT PLN AND APN...THOUGH TEMPORARY MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIGHTEN UP TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BUT HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS
THESE GUSTS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
VEER INTO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN



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