Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 250529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH ORIGINALLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...
ARE EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM
LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

...A LITTLE RAIN ON THE WAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGED FROM
EASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.

THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A VERY DRY
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS DRY FOR A TIME BEFORE MOISTENING
UP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR IN
PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD LEAD THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER BUT WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

...RAIN FRIDAY CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT/DRY WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. HUDSON BAY HIGH SET UP
COULD BRING ABOUT SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAYS SUNDAY/MONDAY
WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW THOUGH TEMPERATURES WON`T BE CLOSE TO RED
FLAG CRITERIA.

RECENT TRENDS: COOL...COOL...COOL...2-6F BELOW AVERAGE LAST SEVEN
DAYS (COLDER AS ONE GOES NORTH) AND 3-6F BELOW AVERAGE LAST 30
DAYS.  PRECIP TRENDS HAVE DRIED OUT OVER PAST WEEK AFTER MID MONTH
WET/FLOODING SPELL...HEAVIEST CENTERED AROUND THE STRAITS (EASTER
SUNDAY RAIN BAND) WITH PRECIP 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF M-32.  LAST 30 DAYS PRECIPITATION 150-200+ PERCENT
OF NORMAL NORTHERN LOWER (HEAVIEST ALONG M-55 AND US-10 CORRIDORS
PER 30 DAY STANDARDIZED PRECIP INDEX)/100-150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL
EASTERN UPPER.  AS A RESULT SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH (ABOVE
90TH PERCENTILE EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER).  RIVERS STILL
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO RECENT RAIN...EASTERN UPPER SNOWMELT
KEEPING PINE RIVER BOUNCING AROUND ELEVATED LEVELS AS CONSIDERABLE
SNOWPACK MELTS AWAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL MEAN PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE
PLAINS STATES BACK INTO THE PACIFIC.  PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND.  AT
THIS POINT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN WILL GRIND TO A
HALT  AS THE WESTERN SHORT WAVE CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED.  LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO CLOSES OFF OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS BY SUNDAY WITH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE RIDGE PORTION OF
THIS BLOCK.  INDICATIONS ARE THAT RENEWED RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
WEST WILL "HOOK UP" WITH THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN AND
PREVENTING THE PLAINS UPPER LOW FROM ESCAPING WITH THIS ENERGY
MEANDERING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THE
IMPLICATION IS A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
WEEKEND THAT EVENTUALLY IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN PIECES OF
ENERGY...ONE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A SECOND OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES.  ELONGATED BAGGINESS TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IN RESPONSE
TO THIS...WITH LOW CENTERS OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND OKLAHOMA/KANSAS.
SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY FORECAST TO RETAIN A MORE ROBUST SURFACE
RESPONSE AS IT TRACKS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN BRANCH
WAVE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN.  THIS WEEKEND WILL FIND
MICHIGAN COMING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON BAY SURFACE
HIGH THAT WILL BRING INCREASING EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AHEAD OF
NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY): PLENTY OF RAINFALL UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST TOWARD MICHIGAN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
TRACKS EAST ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 0.75 INCH).  FORECAST TRENDS SUGGEST BAND
ITSELF MAY BE THINNING AS IT SPREADS INTO NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE
MORNING AS BETTER FOCUS LINES UP WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING INDIANA/OHIO AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.  ALSO LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUICK HITTER AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS (MAY SEE SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A
TIME)...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.  PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...
WILL DEPEND ON MAGNITUDE/DEPTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER.  WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL AS
WELL GIVEN RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  BUT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO STRUGGLING A BIT TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN HOW MARGINAL THE FORECAST THERMAL REGIME
IS...JUST CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN OR SNOW WORDING FOR EASTERN UPPER
WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR NOW.  SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE TIP OF THE
MITT COUNTIES AS WELL BUT WILL LEAVE AS RAIN SHOWERS.  WINDS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST (20-30MPH).

NORTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION...PRIMARILY TO EASTERN
UPPER BUT WILL SEE SOME THREAT SNEAK INTO FAR NORTHERN LOWER.
PRECIP TYPE AGAIN WILL BE A CONCERN...WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE
FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOWFALL EXPECTED.

MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING...MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHEAST LOWER DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT...BUT OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS.  EXPECTED TO BE A COOL AFTERNOON RELATIVE TO
LATE APRIL NORMALS...HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG/SOUTH
OF M-55).  SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED SATURDAY
NIGHT...COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S EXPECTED.

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY): HUDSON BAY SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A STRONG SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH INCREASING EASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY UNCHANGED MONDAY GIVEN INCREASINGLY BLOCKY NATURE OF THE
FLOW.  EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE MONDAY AND LOOK TO
PERSIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MIDWEEK.  HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL COME AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING
RIDGE AND CUT BENEATH IT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AROUND TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY.

DRY SUNDAY AND WARMER THAN SATURDAY THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
FALL SHORT OF NORMAL.  INCREASING DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BEAT
BACK ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION TRYING TO PUSH NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO THE FORECAST WILL ALSO TREND WITH A SLOWER PRECIPITATION
THREAT STARTING WITH DRYING OUT MONDAY`S FORECAST WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY): MORE UNSETTLED WITH VARYING RAIN
CHANCES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.  COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR DESPITE
DEVELOPING RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
DROP IN CIGS TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AS THE RAIN COMES TO A TEMPORARY END BY MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
CENTER. LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO TIGHT LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

EASTERLY WINDS SET UP TONIGHT...SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH MORE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. MAY NEED SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JPB






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