000
FXUS63 KAPX 192037
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
437 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...
PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING A FRONT
TO SAG INTO AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE 1022MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN LAKE HURON...HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS BEAUTIFUL OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH JUST FEW PASSING CIRRUS AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. FURTHER TO THE WEST...MORE CU ACTIVITY WAS
SEEN BACK OVER ILLINOIS...WISCONSIN AND POINTS
WESTWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING A
MOISTURE RETURN THERE. THE CLOSEST WEATHER MAKER TO US IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WAY TO OUR NORTH MOVING OUT OF NRN
MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE JAMES BAY. AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS SEEN WITH THIS
FEATURE...HELPING TO TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN ONTARIO WITH
EVEN A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES SEEN OVER SW ONTARIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...NOT TOO MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT FOR TONIGHT...WITH DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA. NOT LOOKING AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...AS THE RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL JUST BE GETTING UNDERWAY. VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT...WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEW POINTS. THE LOW LYING AREAS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS COULD STILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE A ROGUE SUB 40 DEGREE READING OVER PLACES
SUCH AS GOV AND THE OTHER NORMAL COLD SPOTS. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.P. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN TO NRN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LACKING OVER THE
EASTERN U.P...AND THE WEAKENING FRONTAL FORCING WILL KEEP THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THERE.

THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT STALL OUT OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. FOR THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME...AM HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
QG FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR EASTERN UPPER FOR THE DAY. FOR
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...WITH
A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL
NOTCHES FROM TODAY...ALONG WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IT WILL BRING A BIT MORE CU DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HELPING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME
TOWARD THE STRAITS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND
80...COOLER OVER THE U.P. DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY
IN THE U.P. REMAINS QUITE WEAK TOMORROW...IT MAY BECOME
REINVIGORATED LATE THIS WEEK AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK. MORE ON THAT IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

SUMMER TIME PATTERN SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
A STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER TIMING/LOCATION OF
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. ONE THING THAT YOU CAN TAKE TO THE
BANK...IT WILL TURN MUCH MORE HUMID. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH 700 MB THETA-E
RIDGE ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A BOUNDARY LIES OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THAT WAY. NOT NEARLY AS
COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...THETA-E RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...A CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOVES BY THE NORTH WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 50 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND 40
KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SO WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (POSSIBLY ON HE
STRONG SIDE). TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN QUESTION. CONTINUED TO PLAY IT ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE IN THIS REGARD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...STATUS QUO WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND THE STALLED OUT FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WISH COULD
BE MORE DETAILED BUT MODELS VARY ON INDIVIDUAL SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL AND GO WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE INCHED TEMPERATES UP A LITTLE
EACH DAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO MIDDLE 80S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH BY MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO TOP 90 DEGREES AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C...BUT
LIKE WAS SAID EARLIER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO KNOW MIXING
DEPTH. PERHAPS A BIT OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOWS AT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE 60S TO NEAR
70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FOR ALL TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZES. WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT OR CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CALM
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED WITH STABLE CONDITIONS
REMAINING. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LATE THIS WEEK...COMBINED
WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BA
SHORT TERM...NS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NS
MARINE...NS