Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250258

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1058 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Issued at 957 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Changes are occurring as mid level confluence zone and peak axis of
deep layer moisture convergence slowly drift south...a product of
passing mid level wave off to our north. Band of light to moderate
rain is doing the same, now mostly confined to areas along and south
of the M-32 corridor. Precipitation has remained largely liquid,
although have received a few reports of sleet as deep enough cooling
for such arrives on very north side of that retreating precipitation
band. Surface temperatures largely remain just above freezing,
keeping any freezing rain concerns to a minimum.

Above trends expected to continue for the remainder of the night,
with much of the higher res guidance suggesting most of the rain
becoming centered to areas along and south of M-55 by morning.
Forecast has been tweaked to this more aggressive drying scenario.
As mentioned, cold enough profiles for a wintry mix of precipitation
only arrive at very back edge of better precipitation. See no reason
for this to change, so not seeing much threat for any significant
impacts. Of course, will continue to monitor those surface
temperature trends through the overnight.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Line of precip gradually pushes south tonight into Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Chance of light mixed precip will
continue tonight into Saturday morning...mainly across far Northern
Lower Michigan.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure continues to develop to the
lee of the Rockies near the Panhandle of Oklahoma. Associated warm
front/inverted trough axis extends from this low thru Kansas...SE
Iowa into far Southern Wisconsin and Southern Lower Michigan.
Elongated area of precip continues to fire north of the trough
axis...streaming thru portions of Northern Wisconsin...Central and
Eastern Upper Michigan and the tip of the Mitt. Precip type has
varied across Eastern Upper Michigan thru much of the  day...
including freezing rain...sleet and snow. Temps have finally warmed
above freezing across this area...but some mix of wet snow and sleet
are still being reported within this area.

All short term models show this elongated area of precip will
further narrow in width as it sags slowly southward thru our CWA
during the remainder of the afternoon and this evening. By
06Z...precip chances should be mainly confined to areas along and
south of M-32 as the southern edge of a strong area of dry high
pressure over Canada pushes southward into Northern Michigan. This
will put our CWA within the squeeze play between building high
pressure into northern sections of our CWA and residual moisture and
lift north of the warm front across our southern CWA. A rather
narrow line of mixed precip will remain along the northern edge of
this precip shield where deeper moisture and lift meet the colder
air filtering in from the north along the edge of the Canadian high.
This narrow band of mixed precip should be transient thru the
night...slowly dropping south thru our CWA. Precip chances within
this narrow band should be rather low given the arrival of drier and
more stable air along the southern rim of the Canadian high. Thus...
will opt to not issue any headlines at this time...but will
certainly keep a close eye on precip type trends thru the night. Our
far southern CWA will likely remain above freezing and precip all
liquid. Precip chances...along with any mixed precip chances will
remain confined to our southern CWA on Saturday...with a resurgence
of deep moisture northward and thus increasing precip chances again
by Saturday night.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Unsettled through early next week...

Low pressure currently centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle will
ever so slowly head northeast over the next few days. Meanwhile,
strong high pressure (1033 mb) currently centered over northern
Manitoba will ooze southward. Northern Michigan will lie along the
battle ground between these two systems. This will lead to periods
of rain, possibly even some freezing rain across eastern upper and
far northern lower Michigan. The freezing rain potential is due to
low level cold air being circulated from the high to the north
(while warm air continues at mid levels). So the main forecast
concerns revolve around pops and the potential for freezing rain.

Saturday night through Monday...More of the same really with drier
and colder air continuing to press down from the north while milder
and more moist air rides up from the south. This should lead to
periods of rain through this entire period. The freezing rain
potential at night remains an extremely tough call as surface
temperatures should be marginal (bottoming out right around the
freezing mark) and models vary on the details including the timing
and placement of the moisture. Safest way to go in this scenario is
to keep the forecast general and keep our options open. As things
hopefully become a little more clear we can attempt to be more
detailed as we get closer to each forecast period. The best chance
for freezing rain will continue to be across eastern upper and
northeast lower, especially across the higher terrain. Ice
accumulations (if any) are expected to be under a tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The extended period starts out with what might be some straggling
snow Monday night/Tuesday morning, associated with wrap around
moisture behind an area of low pressure that will, by then, be
moving into New England.  But overall...Tuesday will begin a drying
trend, as moisture strips out and cooler and considerably drier air
drops down from Canada, and hangs over the great lakes into
Thursday.  The euro and GFS then diverge in their handling of the
next weather maker, which the euro has moving from OK into the Ohio
Valley (and a wetter scenario)...while the GFS keeps the low south,
moving across the gulf coast states (and thus a drier solution for
us).  So the chance pops from the blended guidance in the grids
seems prudent...and we`ll keep an eye on this in future runs.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Large area of IFR producing light rain/low clouds/mist continues
to make slow southward progress across the taf sites. This trend
should continue, with growing support for increasing cigs and
improving conditions from north to south through today. May not
clear out completely, but trends do suggest more MVFR and even VFR
conditions during the daytime hours. Low clouds and more rain
return from south to north heading into this evening and
especially during the overnight.


Issued at 1035 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Small craft advisory producing gusty northeast to east winds
expected to develop across much of northern Lake Michigan and
northern Lake Huron early Saturday, with gusty winds persisting
into Saturday night and early Sunday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for


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