Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 200228
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
928 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF HERE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE GOING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL GET TO AROUND NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 928 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS FULLY ORGANIZED LATE THIS
EVENING THANKS TO STRONG CAA...AMPLE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL W/NW WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. MULTI-BANDED STRUCTURE HAS BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED AT THIS HOUR...WITH THE STRONGEST BAND TARGETING OUR
OFFICE. VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
ATTM HERE AT APX. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR MACKINAC COUNTY
AN HOUR EARLY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BAND HAS DISSIPATED WITH SHIFTING
WINDS. ONLY EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR TWO FOR THAT COUNTY. FOCUS NOW
TURNS TO CHIPPEWA COUNTY...THE TIP OF THE MITT AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. WILL MAINTAIN ALL OTHER HEADLINES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEW SNOW TOTALS FOR THE NIGHT COULD REACH
5 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE WARNED AREAS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE
ADVISORY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER WITH PERSISTENT WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND NORTHERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WHERE ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING MAY REACH IN THE 8 TO 10 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS
ALREADY FALLEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THANKS TO A
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION...INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY EVENING WITH GREAT MOISTURE IN THE DGZ AND 925MB WINDS
STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY SNOW FARTHER INLAND THAN WHAT WOULD
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED (MONTMORENCY AND PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES)UNTIL
WINDS VEER TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY NEAR 23Z...SHIFTING HEAVIER BANDS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GAYLORD AREA. DRIER AIR USHERED IN ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PUTTING AN END
TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE DAY ALBEIT COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STILL...ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S YET
AGAIN ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (MOISTURE ONLY -5 TO -6C) AND NO SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES TO
CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW DUE TO DRY AIR ABOVE SATURATION BEING TOO
DEEP...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...THE RAIN THAT
FALLS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY COULD VERY WELL BE FREEZING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS...WITH ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN ROAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY MID AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUT AN END TO ANY CONCERNS OF RAIN FREEZING ON
THE MAIN ROADS. SECONDARY ROADS MAY BE ANOTHER STORY...WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS STAYING AT FREEZING AND MAKING FOR SOME VERY SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TJL

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): (11/23)SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW
THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM AIR MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z. RAIN IS LIKELY/DEFINITE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. (11/24)MONDAY...NOW A
DIFFERENT STORM TRACK, THE LOW MOVES TO W UPPER/N WISCONSIN BY
12Z/MON AM. GFS SHOWS SUBFREEZING 850 MB AIR UNDERCUTTING THE LOW
INTO W LOWER. ECMWF DOESN`T SHOW THIS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE A MIX IN THE MORNING AND THEN ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON.
(11/25)TUESDAY...THE COLD AIR IS INTO THE REGION AND IT LOOKS LIKE
A CHANCE OF SNOW AS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW SWINGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. (11/26)WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THE LATEST ECMWF SLOWS DOWN THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE A BIT IN THE MORNING. THE GFS BEGINS TO THREATEN LIGHT
SNOW BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH A SECOND SYSTEM. WILL GO DRY UNTIL
THE MODELS COME TO A CONSENSUS.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND GOOD MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE/HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NW LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR. GUSTY
W/NW SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 25 KTS (WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE) TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY...PRODUCING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE COASTLINE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
     019-021>023.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ349.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JSL
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...TJL/JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...TJL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.