Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 131944
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
244 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Cold and Quiet...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong arctic high
pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley this
afternoon. Lake aggregate trough extending west-east thru Upper
Michigan is weakening...giving way to strong subsidence building
into the Great Lakes region. Light lake effect snow showers continue
to stream into the typical snowbelt areas of Eastern Upper and NW
Lower Michigan...but have shown a gradual diminish in both areal
coverage and intensity throughout the day...giving way to increasing
downward vertical motion and lowering inversion heights. Surface
high center will shift east of Michigan this evening as a weak wave
and area of limited mid level moisture slides thru the region
overnight...only to be replaced with another area of strong cold
high pressure on Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Main forecast issue are chances of lake
snow showers and the potential for some enhancement from this weak
wave overnight. Low level drying takes place overnight as inversion
heights crash to near ground level. Meanwhile...a layer of mid level
moisture pushes further northward into our CWA overnight. Winds will
shift to the SW ahead of this wave...transferring focus of lake snow
showers to locations right along the Lake Michigan shoreline and
into the Straits. Increasing mid level moisture across our SW CWA
may produce some light snow showers as well overnight. Not matter
what the source of lift and moisture...all snow showers will remain
light with any new snow amounts remaining well under an inch. A few
snow showers will linger into Saturday morning...with dry wx and
increasing sunshine in the afternoon. Temps will be quite cold
tonight as winds become light/calm with the surface high center
nearby. Low temps tonight will fall into the single digits above and
below zero. Temps will begin to recover a bit on Saturday...with
afternoon highs rising into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Moderating temps with mixed precipitation possible Monday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Potentially messy mixed precipitation
arriving Monday.

Pattern Forecast: Zonal flow across the eastern two-thirds of the
country to start the period Saturday morning with expansive area of
high pressure centered atop the central/northern plains eastward
through the western Great Lakes. At the same time, upper-level
cutoff low and associated energy will be pinwheeling off the coast
of California/Baja CA, which is progged to ultimately eject into the
plains by Monday morning and be responsible for this weekend`s ice
storm across the central plains/mid-MS Valley...potentially bringing
a messy wintry mix of precipitation locally to start next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Aside from Saturday night`s low
temperature forecast, little in the way of concerns through the end
of the weekend before attention quickly turns to strengthening low
pressure across the southern plains early Monday morning. Deep layer
dry air associated with high pressure overhead should lead to
increasing sunshine across most areas Saturday afternoon/early
evening, all while our warming trend continues with high
temperatures topping out in the mid-upper 20s. Will continue the
inherited flavor of Saturday night`s low temperature forecast. With
a healthy snowpack, light winds, and a continued decreasing cloud
trend, would expect to see decent radiational cooling, especially
across the typically cooler interior spots (Pellston, Indian River,
Mio, Grayling, etc.) where lows are expected to range from 0 to 5
above. Elsewhere, upper single digits to middle teens Saturday
night. Little in the way of concern Sunday with mostly sunny skies
and high temperatures near 30 degrees.

Focus then turns to a potentially messy mix of wintry weather
arriving Monday as low pressure deepens across the central plains.
While there is plenty of time for the fine details to change,
guidance remains in fairly decent agreement of the large scale
features with low pressure passing by to our west, drawing much
warmer air aloft over Michigan on Monday. The common question, which
will be the case in this event, is how much and how quickly the
surface temperatures respond. Precip arrival Monday midday/afternoon
may potentially start as snow for some, but there remain clear
signals from a pattern recognition standpoint of a transition to
more of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain all
possible by Monday night...supported by the 13/12z GEFS plumes and
the tail end of the 13/09z SREF plumes. Worth monitoring the
evolution of this system through the weekend and will continue to
hit on the potential in our suite of hazardous weather products.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

High Impact Weather Potential: System Monday night into Tuesday
likely to bring a wintry mix, with rain once again freezing on roads
making for difficult travel.

As far as impactful weather, a system moving into the Great Lakes
Monday/Tuesday will once again bring a mix of precipitation. With
still frozen surfaces, we are once again looking at the potential
for poor travel conditions. The secondary story of this period will
be the well above normal temperatures through the remainder of the
period. Might even see some areas making a run at the 50s by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

Light lake effect snow showers will continue to fall across
portions of far Northern and NW Lower Michigan tonight into
Saturday. A weak wave arriving tonight will provide some limited
enhancement...but snowfall intensity will remain light and
coverage will stay scattered. Overall conditions will remain
VFR...briefly dropping to high MVFR within some snow showers. NW
winds AOB 10 kts this afternoon will become light/calm tonight...
shifting to the SW on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

Winds and waves will remain under SCA criteria tonight as high
pressure builds overhead and then shifts east of Michigan. Winds
will approach SCA criteria in a few nearshore areas on Saturday for
far Northern Lake Michigan nearshore areas as winds shift to the SW.
Scattered light lake effect snow showers will continue to fall
across the typical snowbelt regions tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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