Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 232355
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

...SNOW AND WIND ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  INCREASING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WAS MAINTAINING SUNNY BUT VERY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WAS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE SOUTH OF ABOUT CHARLEVOIX WHERE LAKE
CLOUDINESS AND FLURRIES PERSISTED...THOUGH THIS WAS MINOR. FOCUS
LATER TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT PRESENTLY DROPPING SE ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
SAID SURFACE FEATURE...WITH IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING THEN IMPACTING THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. UPSHOT...WINDS AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

DETAILS:  SW FLOW AND H8 WAA STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...OR
WHETHER WE DECOUPLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING - WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND LOWER TEMPS THE RESULT. FORECAST CURRENTLY REFLECTS A TEMP
DROP EARLY THIS EVENING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO /WHEN
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED/ BEFORE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. H8 TEMPS ACTUALLY MODERATE BY LATE EVENING TO THE
EXTENT THAT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OR
COME TO AN END. THEN...DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/FORCING ARRIVE FROM
NW-SE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS ERN UPPER 06-09Z...
AND ACROSS NW LOWER 09-12Z. ONLY AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK
ERN UPPER...WITH AN INCH OR LESS NW LOWER. HOWEVER...WHILE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MANAGEABLE LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING WINDS
/GUSTING 20-30 MPH/ WILL KICK UP BOTH THE FALLING SNOW AND SNOW
ALREADY ON THE GROUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE...AND TRAVEL CONCERNS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EXPECTED AREA
WIDE. HOWEVER...MAIN TRAVEL ISSUES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO US-2 /ERN UPPER/ AND NEAR THE NW LOWER COASTLINE. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND WIND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TUESDAY WITH FOCUS TURNING BACK TO COLD & POTENTIAL
WIND CHILL CONCERNS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY: LIKELY THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE WORK WEEK TO OPEN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION.  MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS NOT
SURPRISINGLY NOT VERY ROBUST...WITH PWATS LIKELY REACHING JUST SHY OF
ONE QUARTER INCH BY DAYBREAK. COMBINATION OF THIS ADDED
MOISTURE...GOOD QG SUPPORT AT MID LEVELS...AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ALONG THE LFQ OF ARRIVING 110KT JET STREAK SHOULD ALL CONSPIRE TO
BRING A BATCH OF SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO THE REGION.  TRICKIER PART OF
THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT GIVEN VERY
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BATTLING
AGAINST THE IMPACTS OF EVER-INCREASING ICE COVER.  SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW EVENT ABOUT ONE YEAR AGO LED TO THE BREAK OF A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF ICE AND VERY HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCEMENT.  SYNOPTIC SETUP IS
VERY DIFFERENT...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE ENOUGH UPSTREAM
OPEN WATER /PER MORNING VIS IMAGERY AND NATIONAL ICE CENTER
ANALYSIS/ TO ENHANCED THE SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL OPEN WATER LIKELY
BEING GENERATED BY THE WINDS /SEE BELOW/.

SNOW:  WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES PORTEND AN INTERESTING SETUP IN
TERMS OF MICROPHYSICS WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SETTING UP AS ENHANCED SNOWS WORK INLAND.  20:1 RATIOS
LOOK LIKELY..ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE WINDS /SEE BELOW/
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...RESULTING IN LESS SPLINTERING OF SNOWFLAKES.

WINDS: H9 SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REACH 40-50KTS 12Z TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS THEY VEER WESTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH ARRIVING ARCTIC
FRONT.  LOWEST LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOMENTUM TRANSFER /ALTHOUGH OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
SHOULD KEEP SOME LID ON THIS/...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME 35KT GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND 30KTS SOUTH OF
APN ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST.

IMPACTS/HEADLINES:  SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG ISSUE ALONG
THE COAST WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS LIKELY PRODUCING SOME WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.  FURTHER NORTH...ALONG THE US-
2 CORRIDOR...SNOW ON THE ICE PACK OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
LIKELY BE LOFTED...ADDING TO THE VSBY REDUCTIONS. THESE IMPACTS WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN AS ONE HEADS EAST WITH LESS SNOW/WIND EXPECTED
INLAND.  CERTAINLY ADVISORY-WORTHY FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 AND IN COORDINATION WITH GRR WILL HOIST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  MOST OF THE WORST IMPACTS
WILL BE IN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK FOR
THESE LOCATIONS...WITH WINDS/SNOWS GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND WILL MENTION GREATER IMPACTS FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IN THE ADVISORY TEXT.

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PAINTS AN INTERESTING
PICTURE AS WE REACH TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND WAVE IN ARRIVING
DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE ALOFT TRYING TO INCITE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT.  NOT SURE IF I COMPLETELY BUY THE
IDEA OF THIS MESO-LOW...BUT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EVENING TO ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF THIS.  WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR UP TO ONE MORE
INCH OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN LOWER
SOUTH OF M-32 BEFORE SNOW RAPIDLY BECOMES CONFINED WESTERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AND THE COAST OF NW LOWER WEST OF US-131.  LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN...BUT WITH T8S AGAIN FALLING BELOW
-25C...SHEER ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO FOR ALL LOCATIONS.  WITH RESIDUAL WINDS...THIS MAY VERY WELL
BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS BACK INTO THE PICTURE ONCE OUR WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES COME DOWN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: STRONG 1045 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH GRADUALLY VEERING LLEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHWESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY TO MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY.  AIRMASS IS COLD AND VERY
DRY /PWATS BELOW 0.1 INCH WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO NEAR 0.05 INCH ON
THURSDAY/ SO ANY LAKE RESPONSE WILL BE RATHER MEAGER...BUT HAVE NO
DOUBT THAT WE/LL SEE SOME TALCUM POWDER SNOWS THAT INCREASINGLY
CONFINE THEMSELVES TO THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND WESTERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY. IMPACTS GENERALLY LOOK MINOR /ALTHOUGH THIS TYPE OF
SNOW WILL CAUSE MODEST VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN WHEN ONLY FALLING
LIGHTLY/ WITH LITTLE WIND.

TEMPERATURES:  T9S IN THE -20 TO -25C RANGE SPELL SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  CLEARLY THIS SPELLS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN BETWEEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MINUS
TEENS SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE FOR OUR COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.  SEE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS SOME 10F COLDER THAN THIS IF MARGINAL
GRADIENT AND SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS DO NOT MATERIALIZE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE FORECAST TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

PRETTY QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...BUT IT WILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE EVER
EXPANDING ICE COVER. THINGS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE COULD "WARM UP" TO THE MID 20S BY
SATURDAY...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME
MOISTURE SUPPORT FOR THE WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL. BETTER SUPPORT FOR
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW IS PROGGED SOUTH OF OUR CWA CURRENTLY...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

-SN/BLSN WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. -SN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
TOWARD MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING...RESULTING IN BLSN
AS WELL FOR TUE MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUE
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SNOW BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD.

S TO SW WINDS TONIGHT...VEERING W TO NW TUE AFTERNOON. LLWS
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ016-
     017-019>022-025>027-031>033.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ


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