Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 160119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
919 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Issued at 918 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Some changes made to the forecast. Low level moisture has continued
to deepen across the region. When combined with strong low level
winds especially off the sfc, periods of wind-whipped rain and
drizzle has impacted portions of eastern upper, and mainly the
GTV Bay region and higher terrain of nrn lower. Significantly
increased chances of rain to categorical over a good chunk of
those areas. Moisture was starting to deepen from aloft as well,
out ahead of a cold front working through western Lake Superior
and NW Wisconsin. As both the lower and upper levels continue to
deepen in moisture, we will gradually erode the mid level dry air
as the front nears. Chances for seeing more bona fide showery
weather increases overnight. Most areas will see at least a period
of rain tonight. The front lays out across the SE CWA by daybreak
with continue chances for seeing showers.

To add to the dreary weather, winds will weaken as the front crosses
while low level moisture remains deep enough for low clouds and fog
into Sunday. Drier air does filter in through the day and from the
north, gradually trying to bring out some sunshine. There is at
least a chance that this drying does not reach M-55 where the front
will lay out. Maybe the clouds never quite clear there.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Southerly low level winds continue to strengthen in advance of the
approaching cold front this afternoon. Front itself remains well
upstream...still extending from Western Minnesota into the Central
Plains. Associated high cloud shield has overspread our entire CWA.
Leading edge of low clouds lifting NE thru Lower Michigan has
reached into all by far NE sections of Lower Michigan and a few
locations across far Eastern Upper Michigan attm. As
precip has developed thusfar across our CWA...with the closest
shower activity still well to our west over Central Wisconsin along
the weak instability axis and narrow 850 mb theta E ridge just ahead
of the front. Low clouds have been more effective in limiting
diurnal warming than expected...with locations under these low
clouds barely reaching 60 degrees this afternoon.

As we head into the late afternoon and evening hours...low cloud
shield will continue northeastward spreading into the rest of our
CWA over the next few hours. Showers will continue to develop along
and just ahead of the approaching cold front...making their way
eastward into western sections of our CWA by 00Z. Precip will
continue to slowly slide thru our area during the remainder of the
night and into Sunday...with just a small area of chance POPs
lingering across our far SE CWA near Saginaw Bay for Sunday
afternoon. Instability will be rather meager (MUCAPES generally less
than 250 J/kg) as the northern tip of the 850 mb theta E ridge
slides thru ahead of the front. With better instability and moisture
staying well SW of our CWA...will stick with only a slight chance of
thunder thru tonight and into Sunday. Some brief clearing should
take place behind the front on Sunday across Eastern Upper and far
Northern Lower Michigan before clouds and precip surge back
northward Sunday night as another wave develops along the front
(see detail below).

Tonight will be quite mild for mid October as temps only cool a few
degrees into the mid 50s to around 60 under thick cloud cover and
continued WAA. Front will slide thru our CWA on Sunday with overall
little change in airmass expected. Thus...expect a mild mid October
day with afternoon highs well into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Synoptic pattern: Transient Pacific dominated pattern across the
CONUS early next week, resulting in mild temperatures and several
days of unsettled weather.

Quasi-stationary front across central/southern Michigan Sunday night
will lift north as a warm front later Sunday night into Monday in
response to deepening upper low over the Plains.  PWAT`s of greater
than 1.50 inches coincident with steepening mid level lapse rates
and a developing 850mb theta-e ridge axis all point toward numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday.
Front stalls out in the vicinity of eastern upper Michigan by later
Monday into Tuesday as next upstream wave rides along it.  This will
spread additional showers and possibly some thunderstorms into the
area, particularly the northern half of the region.  Although
forecast instability is not that impressive right now with regard to
potential CAPE, shear parameters are impressive on Monday and
certainly it will bear watching as to severe potential with any

A very humid mid October airmass for Monday night into Tuesday, with
dewpoints creeping into the 60s in many areas.  This low level
moisture will prevent temperatures from falling much Monday night,
with lows int the 60s in some areas (more in line with July than for
October).   These readings would break record high minimum
temperatures for some locations.  A cold front will finally push
through later Tuesday, helping to scour out the deep layer moisture
and instability across the area. Temperatures remaining very mild
both Monday and Tuesday, with highs well into the 60s or lower 70s.

Following are some of those record high minimum temperatures for
Tuesday, October 18th:

Gaylord   59 (1965)
Traverse City   58 (2007)
Alpena   54 (1994)
Houghton Lake  55 (1994)
Sault Ste. Marie  54 (1963)


Tuesday night through Saturday...

Fairly tranquil weather is expected across the northern Great Lakes
to start the extended period with Monday-Monday night`s front well
east of the area across the Ohio Valley by Tue night. High temps on
Tuesday may approach or slightly exceed 70 degrees toward Saginaw
Bay, while others range through the 60s - some 10-15 degrees above
normal! Cooler air gradually filters into the area beyond Tuesday as
Canadian high pressure sags into the region with guidance indicating
a large spread in feasible solutions come the end of the work week.
Won`t try to nail down the specifics at this point, but if the
cooler set of guidance prevails with -6 to -4 C H8 air overhead
(ECMWF, several GEFS members), we could be talking about the
season`s first flakes for a few lake effect prone locations Friday
night. Confidence in this solution panning out is fairly low, so
will continue to refrain from using the actual "S" word for now,
both here and in the grids...



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

...IFR then improvement through Sunday...

Low level moisture has continued to increase while low level winds
remained rather strong just above the sfc. This was creating some
wind whipped drizzle/light rain with reductions in vsby. AM
expecting this activity to continue this evening. While that is
going on, moisture will be deepening from aloft as well, and more
bona fide showery weather is anticipated while vsby continues to
lower. Drier air and VFR conditions slowly work southward through
the day tomorrow behind a cold front. starting with PLN around
daybreak. There is at least a chance that MBL remains locked in
IFR/MVFR through the day.

Low level wind shear will continue for much of the night, ending
it around 09/10Z.


Issued at 335 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Conditions will continue to barely reach gale warning criteria over
Lake Michigan thru much of tonight...with the rest of our area
reaching SCA criteria thru the night along and ahead of a cold front
moving thru the region. Winds and waves will fall below all headline
criteria for Sunday and Sunday night as a wave develops along that
front and lifts it back northward thru our area. Showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms will develop from west to east as this
front sweeps thru the region tonight. Precip will gradually end on
Sunday...with renewed chances developing Sunday night as that front
waves northward again.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.



LONG TERM...Keysor/Gillen
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