Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191423

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1023 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Issued at 1020 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

High pressure continues to press in from the north. No big
changes to the forecast. Did adjust temp/cloud/wind trends and
lower max temperatures by a couple of degrees overall. Clouds
continue to progress to the south this morning. Meanwhile...high
clouds from a system to the south should increase late. No rain is
expected as abundant dry air should win out.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017


High impact weather potential...low-end fire wx concerns today.

Chilly air already very much in place, behind low pressure departing
eastern Canada. Surface temps are in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Low
clouds remain rather extensive across northern lower MI, though
skies are clearing in upper MI and points north. Cloud/temp
trends are the main issues.

Today...ongoing low clouds will continue to thin from n to s, thanks
to continued dry advection at low levels from the n to nne. That
will eventually be countered by substantial cirrus blowoff from
active convection in the plains/MS Valley. This will increase
mid/high clouds from sw to ne, especially from around midday onward.
Places north of M-68 will be the sunniest for the majority of the
day. Meanwhile, south of M-72, expect a trend back toward mostly
cloudy conditions by sunset.

Max temps in the 50s to around 60f, coolest along the beaches
(especially Superior and Huron).

Fire won`t be terribly breezy today, as areas with a
tighter pressure gradient (the south) will see more cloud cover
and less heating/mixing. But there are enough gusts to around
20mph and perhaps a touch higher to warrant elevated fire danger,
with RHs expected to plunge as low as 20 percent in some places.

Tonight...big blue `H` will continue to hang out near James Bay.
Active front stretches from the Mid-Atlantic Coast to the central
plains. Plenty of convection will be generated near and north of
this front. Most of this will be in the OH Valley and far southern
lakes. Overnight, the parent surface low in the plains will lift
northward as the vigorous upper trof pivots that way. An increasing
low level jet will impinge on the sw lakes region, and precip should
push back into southern Lake MI/far southern WI/far sw lower MI. Our
sw areas will see a thickening mid-cloud deck arrive, but Bufr
soundings at MBL indicate moisture is not deep enough for precip
just yet. So will keep pops out of the picture tonight. Mostly
cloudy skies will hold across the sw half of the forecast area, vs
partly cloudy to the ne.

Min temps mid 30s to lower 40s. Suppose a very slight possibility
for patchy frost in parts of ne lower MI, but in general we have
enough cloud cover to severely limit that threat. Gridded database
will have a few pixels of patchy frost, but not enough to warrant
a mention in the HWO.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

...Active week of weather ahead...

High impact weather potential: Chance of thunderstorms Saturday
night through Sunday morning.

Pattern Forecast: Mid-level ridge axis is progged to be sitting atop
the western Great Lakes Saturday morning with a well-defined trough
digging into the central plains. Energy rounding the base of the
trough will be the focus for surface cyclogenesis across the mid-
Mississippi Valley during the day Saturday before gradually pushing
northeastward toward the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday.
Associated wet weather will make for a rather soggy second half of
the weekend before rain chances diminish Sunday afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Forecast focus revolves around the
Saturday afternoon through Sunday timeframe and includes a myriad of
challenges including PoPs, QPF, and thunder chances.

By Saturday afternoon, surface low pressure is expected to be
centered across northeast IA/southeast MN with a warm front
extending eastward across central Michigan. Thickening/lowering
clouds will be the rule early in the day; however, as the system
continues to slowly organize while trekking northward, the
aforementioned warm front is expected to push across northern Lower
MI during the afternoon...eventually becoming hung up around the
Straits/eastern Upper. This will provide increasing chances
(greatest west of I-75) for isentropically driven showers across
portions of the CWA Saturday afternoon.

Warm front continues its northward progress into southern Ontario
Saturday evening leaving northern Michigan squarely in the warm
sector. Deep southerly flow will tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture-
rich air, aiding to increase shower coverage and intensity Saturday
night. 19/00z suite of ensemble members are in fairly decent
agreement regarding QPF...ranging between 0.25-0.50" area-wide
between Saturday afternon - Sunday. Current deterministic guidance
suggests best forcing lies across northeast Lower late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning, thus favoring those locales for the
higher end of that range. Despite not overly heavy amounts, no
matter which way you slice it, this weekend is shaping up to be the
most widespread precip we`ve seen in 10+ days (even with a few
locations receiving upwards of half an inch of rain yesterday).
Precip chances diminish from west to east midday Sunday into the
afternoon hours as much drier air is ushered in behind a trailing
cold front. Have no convincing reason to remove inherited low end
thunder chances across sections of northern Lower both Saturday
evening and again Sunday prior to cold frontal passage, but
definitely not overly enthusiastic with widespread thunder chances
as best forcing arrives overnight and limited instability ahead of
the approaching cold front (progged up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE is
heavily dependent on a few holes in Sunday morning`s cloud cover).

High temperatures Saturday from the mid-50s north to the low 60s
south of the bridge. Temps are expected to cool into the mid 40s-low
50s after sunset Saturday evening before holding steady or even
warming a couple of degrees after midnight. A touch warmer highs on
Sunday...varying from the upper 50s north to the the upper 60s to
low 70s across northern Lower.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Saturday night-Sunday`s storm system continues to shift
northeastward Sunday night into Monday, although a few
light/scattered showers may linger across eastern Upper from time to
time. Otherwise, focus revolves around the Tuesday-Thursday
timeframe as a wave drops from Saskatchewan southward into the four-
corners region before ejecting eastward toward the Great Lakes.
Rather low confidence regarding the strength, track, and timing of
any developing area of low pressure, but it`ll be worth watching the
middle of next week for another round of wet weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

MVFR cigs becoming VFR this morning.

Low cloud deck is getting steadily pushed south of the region, as
north winds bring drier air into the region. MVFR cigs will
improve to VFR as we move thru the morning. Mid/high clouds will
be increasing from the sw this afternoon and tonight, ahead of
precip chances that arrive during the day on Saturday.

N to ne winds today circa 10kt, with a few higher gusts, becoming
lighter tonight.


Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Somewhat breezy n to ne winds will continue today, especially
early, as high pressure gradually moves east across central
Canada. After a lull late today and early tonight, those ne winds
will pick up again late tonight into Saturday. A mix of small
craft advisories will be needed from time to time.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ345-346.


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