Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 011155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

...SNEAKY SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NE LOWER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLED IN ACROSS SRN
CANADA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS TRACKING
EAST. COLD AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WAS POURING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN
MICHIGAN...BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN NE FLOW
REGIMES. THE NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN MN/WI AND NOW PUSHING
INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE CLEARING MOST
AREAS...BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS RESULTING IN NEAR
TOTAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE COLD...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

DEEP MOISTURE WAS BEING INGESTED INTO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SRN CANADA
WITH AN OVERALL NORTHERLY WIND LOCKED IN ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. THIS NORTHERLY WIND...CAA AND CLOUDS KEEPING US COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY STAYING WHERE THEY ARE...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING THROUGH THE DAY TO MORE NE/ENE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW PRESSURE...BEFORE SETTLING BACK OUT OF THE
NORTH TONIGHT AFTER PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF US. THE DEEP
MOISTURE/NRN FRINGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ARE LOOKING TO AFFECT
THE M-55 CORRIDOR...AND ALSO AID IN THE SHALLOW LAKE LIGHT EFFECT
SNOW AND FLURRIES IN NE FLOW REGIMES. AM LOOKING FOR JUST A FEW
TENTHS OR SO ACROSS THE M-55 CORRIDOR (AS THAT AREA MAY BE
AFFECTED BY THE DOWNWARD BRANCH OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION
NORTH OF THE BETTER FGEN. MAYBE AS MUCH AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN NE
FLOW REGIMES SOUTH OF APN WHERE A DEEP ISOTHERMAL DGZ LAYER COULD
POSE SOME PROBLEMS. FGEN N THE VICINITY CERTAINLY ADDS TO THE
COMPLEXITY OF SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO...THE CURRENT SNOW ACROSS NE
LOWER IS RATHER FLUFFY...WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS. WOUDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR TWO THERE BY DAYBREAK.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS LATER THIS EVENING AND MAINLY OVERNIGHT
WITH SKIES GRADUALLY DECREASING IN CLOUDS...AS HIGHER PRESSURE
TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE EASTERN UPPER FALLING
INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
MAKING IT FEEL LIKE 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING LATER SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT REMAINS POSSIBLE.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: WE NOW RETURN YOU TO OUR REGULARLY
SCHEDULED MUNDANE WINTER CONDITIONS SO PREVALENT THIS WINTER.

SADLY FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS...IT APPEARS WE ARE HEADED BACK
INTO ANOTHER PERIOD OF RATHER QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERALL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID...SNOW ON
THE GROUND RIGHT NOW ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE AS WE MAINTAIN OVERALL
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WITH MEAN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN SEEN SO MUCH THIS WINTER...SHEER STRENGTH OF
THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH (ACTING AS A BIT OF A BLOCK) CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THOSE SHORTWAVES MAINLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES OR EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH. INDEED... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY TREND IN
THIS DIRECTION FOR OUR TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE...SO MUCH SO THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN MAY SEE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
AS ALL OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED (MORE LIKE FALSE ADVERTISING UP THIS
WAY) FGEN FORCING LAYS OUT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

A LITTLE MORE ON THAT BELOW...BUT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
FEATURE FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT AS THE CENTER OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING
WORKS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES FURTHER TO BELOW 875MB...FROM A THERMAL REGIME
PERSPECTIVE...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MANAGE SOME LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES AS THE FLOW BACKS MORE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME "FLUFF" TO ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE ENTIRE CLOUD DECK (SHALLOW AS IT IS) SQUARELY IN
THE DGZ...BUT WITH TRANSIENT FLOW AND LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP MEANING
ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS RIGHT ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS TEASED ABOVE...OUR NEXT SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO HAVE ONLY A GLANCING
IMPACT ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RATHER
FLAT-ISH LOOK TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW TYPICALLY MEANS A TIGHTENING OF
THE THERMAL GRADIENT THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND INDEED THAT WILL OCCUR
AS WE HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS TIMES THE PAST FEW MONTHS. HOWEVER...
FOLLOWING THE SEASONAL TREND...THAT GRADIENT LOOKS BEST DOWNSTATE
AND PERHAPS EVEN A TOUCH MORE SOUTH THAN THAT...LEAVING US INSTEAD
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
BUT INTERRUPTED BY THE TYPICAL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING SO COMMON
AROUND THESE PARTS. PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF
THAT SETUP...MOST NOTABLY THE PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL BETTER
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THAT LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING. BASED ON
CLIMO...MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS TO LAY UP TOWARD THE WHITEFISH POINT AREA...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS OUR NEXT ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION KICKS
THE MID LAKE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD LAND. FARTHER
SOUTH...NOT AS IMPRESSED BY POTENTIAL THOUGH LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ONGOING GIVEN THE SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF COLDER AIR WORKING
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. COULD BE SOME DECENT "FLUFF" ONCE AGAIN GIVEN
IDEAL CLOUD TEMPS BUT WITH WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THAT HIGH
TRIES TO PENETRATE THE AREA...NOT MUCH ROOM FOR ANY ORGANIZATION TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS AS WE MAINTAIN OVERALL UPPER
TROUGHING THROUGH LATE WEEK...BUT WITH A LIKELY TREND TOWARD RISING
HEIGHTS TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS WE RE-DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS ADVERTISED INTO
THURSDAY AS H8 TEMPS DIVE TO AS LOW AS -25C...THOUGH HONESTLY EXPECT
THOSE VALUES TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT BEFORE THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS. THE
SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLD AIR MANDATES CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST FLOW AREA...THOUGH
INCREASING ICE COVERAGE OVER BOTH LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL PLAY A ROLE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOW SHOWERS
COURTESY OF SOME QUITE DRY AIR. CONFIDENCE TAKES A DIVE TOWARD THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING HOW MUCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL
COLDER AIR WILL SPILL BACK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS TIME...CONSENSUS WOULD
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WARM ADVECTION-DRIVEN SNOW WORKING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
IDEA JUST YET GIVEN TRENDS THIS WINTER. SOMETHING TO WATCH OF
COURSE...WITH OVERALL TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH COLD DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THAT HAS SCOURED OUT ALL MVFR CIGS EXCEPT APN DUE TO SHALLOW
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPREADING THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO NRN MICHIGAN.

MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT APN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MBL AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED AT THESE AIRPORTS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO SNOW REACHING TVC...AND THE ONLY WAY PLN CAN GET IN ON THAT
WOULD BE IF WINDS CAN SHIFT MORE EAST AND GET A LITTLE LAKE HURON
SHALLOW INSTABILITY FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED.

NE WINDS AROUND 10KTS ALL DAY BACKING NORTH LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD


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