Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 031043
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
643 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

ANOTHER QUIET DAY AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY CONTINUES TO EXTEND RIDGING INTO LOWER MI...THOUGH THIS
RIDGING IS STARTING TO WEAKEN. STRONGER RETURN FLOW IS SEEN TO OUR
WEST...IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON UP INTO MN. A WARM FRONT LIES
ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT WILL SEE PRESSURE RISES AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF IT WILL RESULT IN
LESS IMPRESSIVE RETURN FLOW AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EAST. BUT
STILL...NEED TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP
APPROACHING NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY...NO CONCERNS. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IS SEEN ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MN AND FAR WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS IS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND AT THE NOSE OF THE STRONGER 1000-850MB FLOW. THIS
ACTIVITY STRUGGLES AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST...ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE RICHEST THETA-E INFLOW. THIS TREND WILL
HOLD THRU THE DAY TODAY. IN FACT...UPSTREAM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FALLS APART. SOME OF
THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE IT HERE...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NW LOWER MI.

850MB TEMPS OF 8-9C ARE ANOTHER 1-3C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THAT
WILL MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE
TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S...60S ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ORGANIZE AT ALL TONIGHT...WITH A
GENERAL 10-20KT SW 850MB WIND ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. GFS TAKES THIS
UNIMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND STILL MANAGES TO PUSH THE PRIMARY
WARM FRONT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NAM/ECMWF SEEM MUCH MORE
REASONABLE IN KEEPING THIS BOUNDARY STUCK ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
THE BIG LAKE. THIS FAVORS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO WORK INTO
EASTERN UPPER. THE NAM HAS INDEED TRENDED SUBSTANTIALLY WETTER THIS
RUN...BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH SO. THE INFUSION OF RICHER THETA-E AIR
AT AND BELOW 850MB LOOKS TOO SLOW TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS AT THIS
TIME. WILL BROADEN OUT THE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MORE OF
EASTERN UPPER...THE IMMEDIATE STRAITS AREA...AND PARTS OF EMMET CO.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ALL AREAS...THOUGH ONLY BECOMING
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN UPPER. MIN TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

(6/4)THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SLOW AT BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, AS IT IS NOW KEEPING THE FRONT LAYED UP, WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN E UPPER OR ALONG THE SHORE OF NW
LOWER. THEN AS HS BEEN EXPECTED THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT GETS STRETCHED AND SPLITS SO THAT THE MODELS
THIN OUT THE RAIN FOR LOW CHANCE POPS. WITH THE LACK OF OVERNIGHT
INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING, AND A DECENT SFC HIGH
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE PRETTY
SPOTTY WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANYTHING.

(6/4)FRIDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOMETHING ACROSS THE M-55
CORRIDOR, AND MAYBE UP TO M-72, THE LATEST NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF SAY
NOTHING HAPPENS DURING THE DAY WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE SFC HIGH
BULLDOZING ALL THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF M-55 BEFORE ANYTHING CAN GET
GOING. LOWERED THE POPS A BIT BUT THIS WILL TREND DRY, I THINK, BY
THE END OF TODAY. WITH THE HIGH STRETCHED FROM HUDSON BAY, TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE DRY AIR WILL CLEAR THE SKIES OUT BUT WITH THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C, WILL EXPECT THAT THE MID TO UPPER
40S IS WHERE THE SFC LOWS WILL DROP TO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE
TRENDING WARM OR NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND OVER THE COURSE OF
A DAY OR TWO, HAVE COMPLETELY FLIPPED THEIR IDEAS. SO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, IT STARTS DRY JUST BEFORE THE NEXT BUCKLING OF THE JET
STREAM OCCURS ON SUNDAY. THAT`S WHEN THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN, AS LONG
AS THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BAY HIGH MOVES EAST. THINK THAT THIS
IS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE TWO MODELS FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY, THERE IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE ON THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE THAT WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS. TUESDAY MAYBE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO LOWER MI FROM THE E...THOUGH
THIS WILL LOSE INFLUENCE OVER TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL STAY TO OUR W AND N THRU THIS TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...GIVING WAY TO LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH WILL BE
LIGHT. NO ADVISORIES NEEDED. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ


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