Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220308
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
908 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

A CONSOLIDATED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER
THAT...THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WEAK RADAR ECHOES ARE ALREADY INCREASING ON THE
KGJX RADAR...INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING
OVER OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES ALL NIGHT LONG...IN ANTICIPATION FOR WHAT
COULD BE A WET DAY TOMORROW. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY NOT DIE
OFF DUE TO INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB JUST ABOVE AN INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO AN INCH AND A
HALF OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WAVE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST. IF HIGHS ARE ABLE TO CLIMB IN
THE 80S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS
IF GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...IT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80
DEGREES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WITH THE TROF. PW VALUES WILL
BE CLOSE TO 1.25" SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. LATEST
MODELS HINT AT HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH. OVERALL...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS ON FRIDAY EVENING. THE TROF WILL EXIT NORTHERN COLORADO ON
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRYING AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WORKING
IN.

THE DRYING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO
COLORADO FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT THERE WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WITH GOOD DRYING FOR SUNDAY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS IF THAT.

THE NEXT BIGGER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL COME ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE DENVER AREA HAVE ENDED FOR TONIGHT. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE DENVER AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS NOON NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
AND BY 3 PM AT KDEN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MOIST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW...BUT FLOOD PRONE AREAS COULD SEE ISSUES
IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...MEIER



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