Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 271626
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1026 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE
MOISTURE EXTENDS UPSTREAM...SO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. WILL KEEP 10 POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE A
VERY BRIEF AND WEAK SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 MPH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND
NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE ONLY TWEAKS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE OVER COLORADO WITH A RIBBON OF
MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE WHOLE PATTERN IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...LEADING TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRYING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS A LITTLE GAP IN THE DEEPER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME...SO THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE EASTERN BORDER SHOULD BE DECREASING BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER THERE
IS ANOTHER LITTLE RIPPLE UP IN MONTANA THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE BAND TO FILL IN AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. WILL
HANG ONTO LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND KEEP QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS
THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION...EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED IF THERE EVEN IS ANY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE OVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT...WEAKER ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DOWNWARD MOTION THE REST OF SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALL
DOWNSLOPING FOR ALL THE CWA. THERE ARE NORTHWESTERLIES SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN A UPSLOPE SURGE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
MOISTURE...THERE IS LITTLE ON SATURDAY...THEN A BIT MORE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE WEAK TROUGH. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE DRY. THERE
IS A LITTLE CAPE PROGGED LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING. FOR
POPS...MINOR ONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT`S IT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE DOWN 3-8 C FROM SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
OVER COLORADO WITH A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS WEAK FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ZONAL AND
INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A JET MAXIMUM IS OVER COLORADO
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND EXCEPT A BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
18Z WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE WINDS COULD
TURN EAST FOR A TIME IF AN ANTICYCLONE FORMS. AFTER 00Z...WINDS
WILL TURN NORMAL SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE DIRECTION.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER


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