Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 210318
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

A VERY FEW SHOWERS EXIST ON RADAR OVER MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND
LINCOLN COUNTY. MOST OF THESE ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND...AND TREND
WILL BE FOR SHOWERS DECREASING AND ENDING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS DECREASING BY MORNING. REDUCED POPS...NO CHANGES TO REST OF
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO OVERNIGHT. FOR
THE MOST PART CEILINGS ARE ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL...BUT THERE
IS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. ADDED
IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL COME
BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS...SO I BUMPED THEM UP SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

THERE IS STILL A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON THE INCREASE FOR THE CWA. THE QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW BENIGN ENERGY FOR THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HAVE PRETTY STRONG
DOWNWARD MOTION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRETTY DECENT NORTHWESTERLIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DECENT COLD FRONT COMES IN BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE IS LACKING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES FAIRLY DEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE PLAINS HAVE SOME UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
SOME SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE FOOTHILLS FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOUNTAIN POPS WILL KEEP THEM
MOSTLY IN THE "LIKELY" CATEGORY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS ARE GOOD FOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WEST AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME
WILL GO WITH AMOUNTS UNDER HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA...BUT THIS MAY NEED
SOME INCREASE FOR THE LATER SHIFTS. THERE IS SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS VARY A
BIT FROM TIME TO TIME. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS. THE PLAINS WILL SEE
SOME FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS ARE NOT FIERCE HOWEVER. FOR TEMPERATURES...
SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S HIGHS. SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 7-10 C COLDER THAN SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY JET
MAXIMUM OVER THE CWA HAS SPEEDS PROGGED UP TO 140 KNOTS. ON
WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DECREASES A BIT. BY THURSDAY
THE ECMWF STILL HAS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO...WITH A
DECENT RIDGE ON THE GFS. THE OPERATIONAL VERSIONS OF THE TWO
MODELS ARE HANGING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF`S TROUGH ISN`T QUITE AS DEEP AND 2 OR 3 OF THE GFS`
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TRENDED TOWARDS TROUGHINESS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. WILL KEEP DECENT ALPINE POPS GOING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN DECREASE THEM. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS. BY LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PUT IN OR KEEP IN SOME MINOR BROAD
BRUSH POPS OVER THE ALL THE CWA. THE GFS HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING DRAINAGE THIS
EVENING...THEN NORTHERLY AFTER 20Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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