Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170919
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
319 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME. AS IT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...AIR WILL
BE DRYING AND DESCENDING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKER WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
VERY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BE THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE STATE HAS CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST LOWER AIRMASS
TO COOL RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING...LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING. WILL SEE SOME
SUN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S
AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON FRI AND THEN BECOME MORE WLY ON
SAT. OVERALL MOISTURE BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED HOWEVER
THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT AFTN/EARLY
EVENING TSTMS. THE GFS DOES SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN
CO ON SAT SO IF THIS FEATURE IS REAL THEN COULD SEE SOME INCREASE
IN OVERALL COVERAGE HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE. AS FOR TEMPS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 5 TO 6
DEGREES C ON FRI AND THEN ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREES C ON SAT. THUS
WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY SAT OVER NERN CO.

FOR SUN INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO COLORADO. OVERALL THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN TSTMS ON
SUN. BY MON THE MID LVLS BEGIN TO WRM AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO
DECREASE SO ACTIVITY MAY BE ISOLD AT BEST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S OVER NERN CO BOTH DAYS.

BY TUE AND WED A STG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
COLORADO WITH WK FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THUS WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW POPS WITH MOST ACTIVITY CONFINED TO MTN AREAS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WITH
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH 18Z. THERE ARE REPORTS OF
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS OF 100 FEET...SO WOULD EXPECT
THESE AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LOW TODAY...LIKELY STAYING WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE DENVER AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO A
DRIER AIRMASS...FEWER STORMS AND WEAKER STORMS. THE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WHERE
BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW TODAY.

ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER/RPK


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