Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 230251
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
851 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Thunderstorms along the Front Range are weakening as airmass gets
sufficiently turned over and stabilized. On the northeastern
plains...looks like the beginnings of a mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is underway. Good coverage in the next couple hours
east of Sterling and Akron with locally heavy rainfall and strong
winds primary threats. That complex is expected to shift eastward
in the mean flow aloft as it organizes, with most convection
exiting the far northeast plains toward midnight or shortly
thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Convection over the mountains has had limited strength this
afternoon as expected. We have had a few stronger pulses over and
just east of the foothills...though these storms appear to be
transitioning to outflow driven storms and then decaying quickly.
Lots of cloud cover developing upstream so it will be another
mostly cloudy and warm night with the weak convection gradually
fading. We could set a record high minimum temperature for today
as it only got down to 70 this morning and the record for today is
69...and 70 for tomorrow. Saturday looks slightly drier again,
though the result may not be that different. Biggest change will
be the wind shift over the plains bringing drier low level air
into the northeast corner, making this area more likely to be
capped entirely. Bumped temperatures up a degree or two and
adjusted the thunderstorm timing a little.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

An elongated upper level ridge of high pressure stretching across
the southern United States will dominate weather across the Rocky
Mountain Region over the next several days. Some subtropical
moisture trapped beneath the ridge...combined with daytime
heating...will produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day. PW`s are expected to remain
around an inch through early next week...therefore a few of the
storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for
heavy rain appears to be on Sunday due to an easterly low level
flow and slow storm movement. Soundings on Monday show capes above
1000j/k with some shear....which if this verifies could lead to a
few stronger storms from the Front Range Urban Corridor and Palmer
Divide eastward across the plains. A few strong storms will also
be possible across the far northeastern plains on Tuesday as the
tail end of an upper level disturbance brushes the forecast area.
By the middle of next week...the upper ridge shifts northwest over
the Intermountain West...with a dry west to northwest flow setting
up over Colorado. This pattern pushes the subtropical moisture
south into New Mexico. This should lead to drier weather across
much of north central and northeastern Colorado on Wednesday.
Models show upper level disturbances in the northwest flow aloft
and associated weak cool fronts moving across the region late in
the work week. This could result in slightly cooler temperatures
and slightly better precipitation chances...especially across the
far northeastern plains. Temperatures should remain at above
normal values through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 851 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

VFR through Saturday. Storms on the western side of the Denver
metro area around KBJC northward through KFNL and GXY area are
weakening rapidly as airmass gets worked over. Variable winds due
to the thunderstorms will also be settling down to around 10 knots
and turning to normal southwesterlies 04Z-06Z. Still enough
heating and instability for a low threat of thunderstorms again on
Saturday with gusty winds and light rain...mainly after 22z-23Z.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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