Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
921 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Issued at 915 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Since the last AFD update we had a weak surge back into the
Denver area about 2 hours ago. This caused winds across the
eastern 2/3rds of the metro area to go northeasterly at 8-14kts.
This boundary has yet to reach the Rampart Range south of the
metro area and so winds on the southwest side of the metro area
are still southwesterly. In the next hour or so, should see winds
across the entire metro area shift to their typical mid-evening
south-southeast component at speeds generally under 12 kts. Next,
mid-level clouds tracking southeastward over the eastern half of
the CWA should thin out over the next few hours. Otherwise,
overnight temp forecast appears to be on track.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

No updates planned for the near-term forecast. At this time it
looks like the cool front will enter Colorado from WY/NE around
sunrise, then reach Denver metro area by noon. Trend of cooler
temps continues in the high-res models behind the front and the
current forecast for Saturday reflects that trend.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue overnight ahead of
a cold front that will push across Colorado Saturday afternoon.
The wind speeds will diminish in most areas this evening, though
the high mountains and east slopes may see stronger winds as the
flow at mountain top level increases a bit. Some mid and high
level moisture will be streaming over, along with a thicker wave
cloud that should persist just east of the Front Range. The wind
and clouds will help keep temperatures up. All of this was already
in the forecast though I did increase the clouds and winds a bit

Saturday will begin warm, dry, and breezy like this morning. The
front should push across during the afternoon, with cooler
temperatures and more moisture behind the front. There is a slight
chance of some thunderstorms right behind the front, but it looks
like the incoming air should be cool enough to be more stable. If
there are storms with the moisture right behind the front, they
could be strong but should not be long lived. The main threat
would likely be strong winds enhancing the existing frontal surge.
Models are trending toward a bit earlier timing and a bit more
cold advection, so I lowered Saturday`s highs a couple of degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Airmass to remain relatively moist Saturday evening. Expect
isolated showers and thunderstorms to linger through the evening
and end around midnight. Surface high behind the cold front will
move across the region Sunday. This will bring dry conditions. A
strong subsidence inversion will cap convection. Temperatures will
be coolish compared to recent highs with readings around 80
degrees over northeast Colorado.

For next week, a warming trend begins as an upper level ridge builds
over the Desert Southwest. Over Colorado, flow aloft will be west-
northwest. By Tuesday, high temperatures across northeast Colorado
will climb into the 90s. Not much change in the weather pattern for
next week. Expect highs to remain in the 90s through Thursday. The
ECMWF shows a cold front pushing through late Thursday and bringing
cooler temperatures for Friday. As far as precipitation chances
go, it looks dry. The GFS and ECMWF show spotty QPF Wednesday
through Friday. Warm air aloft and limited moisture will make it
difficult for convection to form. If any showers and storms form
Wednesday through Friday, they are expected to be spotty and weak.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 915 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The wind boundary presently moving southwestward through western
portions of the Denver metro area will cause winds at KBJC and
KAPA to shift to 040-060 deg direction in the next 10 mins or so.
Wind at KDEN shifted with its passage about 90 mins ago. Since
then wind at KDEN has already shifted to a sly component and
should remain there for the remainder of the night at a speed
mainly under 12 kts. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail the next
12 hours.




LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Baker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.