Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 181539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
939 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Issued at 939 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

12Z Denver sounding shows a very warm airmass in place and suggest
highs will push 80F over the plains this afternoon. Near record
warmth in the forecast is on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Dry wly flow aloft will be over the area today and tonight with
little cloud cover expected.  850-700 mb temps rise around 5 c by
aftn so expect highs will be around 10 degrees warmer than Fri
across nern CO.  Record high at Denver is 82 so will get close to
that level.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Models have upper ridging over the CWA Sunday through Monday
night. Winds aloft are mainly zonal at speeds of 40 to 70 knots at
jet level. The QG Omega fields have benign synoptic scale energy
for the CWA all four periods. The boundary layers winds look to be
downsloping on Sunday with the higher winds speeds over the
northern half of the CWA. Weak drainage is progged Sunday night.
Weak east and southeasterlies are progged on Monday well into
Monday night. For moisture, it is pretty dry Sunday into mid day
Monday with just some upper level cloudiness. Moisture increases
and deepens Monday afternoon and night. The QPF fields show
limited measurable precipitation late Monday afternoon and Monday
night. For pops, will go with 10-40%s in the mountains and
northern boarder plains Monday afternoon and night. For
temperatures, Sunday`s highs will be close to this afternoon`s
and will be near record highs. Monday`s highs will be 1-4 C
colder than Sunday`s. For the later day`s, Tuesday through Friday,
models keep upper ridging over the CWA on Tuesday, then
southwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday into early Thursday. An
upper trough moves in and across late Thursday into Friday
morning. There is upper ridging later Friday through Saturday.
There is some moisture late day Tuesday. There is better moisture
late Wednesday into early Friday. Temperatures will be above
seasonal normals through Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 939 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Winds will most likely transition to southeasterly flow 18Z-00Z.
There is a chance of west/northwest winds spreading off the
foothills into KBJC and possibly KAPA and KDEN late this afternoon
during peak mixing. Then winds will transition back to normal
south/southwest winds 03Z-06Z tonight. VFR conditions persist.


Issued at 327 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Fire danger will be elevated today due to warm temps and low
humidity levels across the plains and foothills. However winds
will be relatively light and not meet Red Flag criteria.

Very warm and very dry conditions are expected over the plains
and foothills on Sunday. Wind speeds are strong enough over the
northern CWA to warrant a Red Flag Warning. Will keep the Watch
going to the south of this area for now.


Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Sunday for COZ215-238-242-

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for COZ239-240-243>245-249.



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