Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 221058
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
458 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015

THERE HAS BEEN SOME DRYING ALOFT BEHIND YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND THERE IS STILL A
LITTLE RIBBON OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NW COLORADO ARE
EVIDENCE OF THIS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED PRETTY WELL ALLOWING A POCKET
OF FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF DENVER. EXPECT FOG/STRATUS
TO ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST BUT WITH SOME WIND OUT THERE IT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE AS THICK...BUT IN A LONGMONT/FORT COLLINS/FORT
MORGAN TRIANGLE THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM AREA OF LIFT MOVES IN. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING OUT OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE...THERE IS
ENOUGH LEFT PLUS THE FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS...MORE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE EARLIER
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS DRIES MORE SUBSTANTIALLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SWLY THU INTO FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO TEXAS.  THU LOOKS DRY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHERE DEEPER LOW
LVL MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONG A WK CONVERGENCE ZN.  THUS CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN STORMS IN THIS AREA.  ON FRI THE ECMWF
BRINGS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ERN CO WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
MOST OF IT OVER SERN CO.  OVERALL WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE
NERN PLAINS FOR THE AFTN HOURS WHERE A WK BNDRY WILL EXIST.  AS FOR
HIGHS READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS NERN CO BOTH
DAYS.

FOR THE WEEKEND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS EXPAND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WESTWARD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO.
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
AFFECT NRN CO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE OVER SRN CO BOTH DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT MOVING
NORTH INTO NRN CO ON SUN. LAST NIGHT THE MODELS WERE COMPLETELY
OPPOSITE SO WILL JUST KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST BOTH DAYS. OVERALL
850-700 MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH EITHER DAY SO READINGS ACROSS
NERN CO WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE FM THE SRN
ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SO WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS ON MON.  APPEARS HIGHS WILL STAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS NERN CO.  BY TUE A CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE
INTO NERN CO WHICH MAY DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME FOG NORTH OF THE DENVER AREA
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE
DENVER TERMINAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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