Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241615
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

12Z DENVER SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FROM 780 MB TO AROUND 700 MB. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING CLOSE TO 90F OR MORE ON THE PLAINS. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A POCKET OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EVEN THEN...ONLY
LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST
WEST OF COLORADO. MUCH OF COLORADO IS UNDER A DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INCREASE AND 700MB TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 15+C ALONG WITH
BETTER MIXING UP TO 500MB. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN LESS SMOKE
AND HAZY CONDITIONS WITH THE MIXING AND TRAJECTORIES A BIT MORE
WESTERLY. THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY. LOOKS TOO DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

BY TUESDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM NORTH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. BY
AFTERNOON MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE PRODUCT OF STG
SOLAR HEATING...SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. COULD ALSO SEE
A FEW HIGH BASED STORM DRIFT OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE NEARBY
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. THOUGH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST
OF THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT STORMS TO LITTLE MORE THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN ARIZONA AND 4-CORNERS AREA TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE
PACKING QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE...MAINLY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS
THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE NEARS THE AREA...SHOULD SEE T-STORM
CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE FIRST IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WILL BE LIGHT
SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN W-SWLY/DOWNSLOPE/
DURING MOST OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER 20-30 PCT POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH 06Z/THU...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL NEED
POPS IN THE 40-60 PCT RANGE. WEST SLOPE AREAS WILL BE IN THE BEST
POSITION TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODELS SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVING OUT ON
THURSDAY SO WILL HOLD ONTO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. POST-TROUGH FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY AND BRING AN END TO MOST
PRECIPITATION BY EVENING. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID DRYING AND
CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REGAINS ITS STRENGTH OVER UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE STATE
AND IN DOING SO THE FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO SWLY COMPONENT. THIS FLOW
APPEARS TO ADVECT UP INTO THE AREA SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WITH
STG DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-
STORMS MAINLY IN THE MTNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. LESS
SMOKE/HAZE TODAY WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING. HOWEVER...ILS
APPROACHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT KDEN DUE TO LIMITED SLANT
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING EASTERLY
BUT SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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