Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 050226
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
826 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

THERE ARE A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING COMPARED TO
LAST. THERE WAS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EARLIER...WITH A FEW REMAINS STILL AROUND RIGHT NOW. THERE IS
ALSO A BIT OF CIRRUS COMING UP AND OVER THE UPPER RIDGE THOSE AXIS
IS CENTERED...NORTH-SOUTH OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS ON TRACK TO
BECOME NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO. LITTLE TO
CHANGE ON GFE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
FOR ANOTHER DAY. TEMPERATURES AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE
WARMEST HIGHS OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

...UNSETTLED AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT MAIN INCREASE SEEMS TO OCCUR BEHIND A WEAK FRONT
SLIPPING ACROSS THE WYOMING BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO GROW ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...REACHING UP TO 1000 J/KG WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
FARTHER NORTH BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE I-76 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS FURTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WHICH MAY
STALL OUT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CAPES MAY REACH 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WOULD ALSO BE A TORNADO THREAT WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ITS STILL HARD TO TELL WHERE THIS FRONT MAY STALL OUT
THIS FAR AHEAD OF TIME...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL THE FRONT COULD
SLIP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TAKING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH IT. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SEVERAL
TOP ANALOG DAYS SHOWING NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OVERALL SHEAR WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE AND
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL DECREASE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT BUT AIRMASS IS STILL UNSTABLE SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY ABOVE 8500-9000
FEET. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ONLY BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND
7500-8000 FEET...SO PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ON THE PLAINS AND EVEN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE WITH
POTENTIAL OF WEAK SHORT WAVES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SO WILL
GO WITH A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND FROM DUE EASTERLY NOW TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AT DIA BY 04Z.  NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK


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