Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 132148
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
248 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

MID TO HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE HELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY.

A MARITIME PACIFIC TROUGH WAS WORKING WAS MOVING THROUGH UTAH TODAY
THEN WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OVER NE NM BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRACKING INTO SW KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS USUAL WITH WINTER STORMS
IN NE COLORADO THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE
RAIN/SNOW UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE PARK RANGE EVENTUALLY WORKING
INTO SUMMIT COUNTY AND THE FRONT RANGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON 4-12 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES.

ON THE PLAINS LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND DROPS SOUTH. A COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
BRINGING BRISK NW WINDS BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DEEPENS TO OUR SOUTHEAST SOME SHOWERS WILL
FILL IN OVER THE PLAINS. A DEEP MOISTURE BAND IS EXPECTED IN FAR NE
COLORADO. THE RAIN SNOW LINE STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN FOR THE PLAINS.
BUT FOR NOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND EAST OF STERLING-AKRON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

SNOW PERSISTS IN THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS KS WITH A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETTING UP
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS BAND CLIPS EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY HIGH POPS HERE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED FOR SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES AND 1-3 INCHES IN WASHINGTON COUNTY. COULD
ALSO BE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WIND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
BLOWING SNOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHT HERE. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES MOVING AWAY...BUT THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS WY/NE CO
IN BEHIND IT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES ASHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EJECTING LEAD
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MTN SNOW WEDNESDAY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE CHANCE OF MTN SNOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH FORECAST TO PASSES. MODEL
DIFFERENCES GROW AFTER TUESDAY THROUGH...SO WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
ON MTN POPS FOR NOW AND KEEP THE PLAINS MOSTLY DRY. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY.  AGAIN GOOD
AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2014

LIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE LATE TODAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TURNS WINDS TO NORTH.
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AT DIA LOOKS AROUND 09Z. UPSLOPE FLOW AND
LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR THEN
TO IFR OR BELOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ033-034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT



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