Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 052107
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FOOTHILLS CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ALSO
SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW SHORT LIVED
SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE FOOTHILLS CONVERGENCE THERE
HAS BEEN NO PERSISTENCE OF ANYTHING...JUST QUICK LITTLE PULSES.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHER POPS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE FRONT RANGE AND LESS ELSEWHERE. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
UNDER 10 PERCENT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE PLAINS. I LEFT OUR
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE ABOUT ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER ON SUNDAY WHICH
WAS PREDICATED ON SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
NOW LOOKING LIKE NOT MUCH...AND WE MAY HAVE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE WARMER INSTEAD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO
THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING THE AMS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GET
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED
HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NERN PLAINS MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FOLLOWING FROPA. THE
AMS WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAIN. BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK STORM MOTIONS AND
HIGHER PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT THE WEAK STORM MOTIONS AND PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF COLORADO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THIS WILL HELP THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO CO WRN
CO TO SPREAD EAST WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME VERY ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF
DENVER MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. COVERAGE IS LOW...BUT THEY COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT MOVING THROUGH THE KDEN TRAFFIC PATTERN OR BRIEFLY
MOVING PAST THE AIRPORT. THREAT OF THUNDER AT THE AIRPORT STILL
LOOKS LIKE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THESE SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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