Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

FXUS65 KBOU 172143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
343 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Strong zonal flow this evening with the upper level jet lifting
to the north and east. Downward mid and upper level qg descent
this aftn and evening allowing for the showers in the mountains
to gradually diminish overnight. showers will linger longest
along the higher west facing slopes. No mountain wave
amplification overnight...but gusty winds will linger later in
the evening. Across the northeast plains...strongest winds have
occurred over Weld County with northerly downslope off the
Cheyenne Ridge. Gusty winds will continue through the
evening...and will gradually taper off this evening. Persistent
gusty winds and low relative humidities through early this will keep the fire weather highlights in place...see
discussion below. Cooler temperatures and less wind on Tuesday.
The flow aloft will be more southwesterly ahead of an upper level
trough which will move into northwestern CO late in the day. More
rain and snow developing in the mountains...but scattered coverage
in the afternoon with no accumulations anticipated. Dry over the
northeast plains with just a slight chance of rain
showers...especially to the north of Denver.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the state tomorrow
night as a short wave trough passes. Upper level jet winds are
forecast to be in the 100-120 knot range. As the weather
disturbance passes over, light snow is expected in the mountains
and the northern plains will have a chance of rain showers as
well. snowfall accumulations up to a few inches will be possible,
primarily north of the i-70 corridor. rainfall amounts on the
plains will be less than a quarter of an inch.

On Wednesday...shower activity will taper off as upper level
ridging builds over the Great Basin and a strong surface high
builds over the northern Rockies. Cold air advection out of
Wyoming will keep gusty winds going over the northeast Colorado
plains. As the winds taper off Wednesday night, the cool and dry
airmass in place over the region will allow morning lows on
Thursday to probably fall into the upper 20s.

Dry and gradually warmer weather are then expected through the end
of the week and over the weekend as the western U.S. upper ridge
dominates the weather picture. Pressure gradients should be
relaxed, so less wind should result.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

east/northeast winds this aftn will transition to more of a
northerly wind this evening. The wind will decrease after 05z and
will slowly try to shift back to drainage overnight...but later
than usual. South/southwest winds late tngt...become more sely
Tuesday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions with no restrictions.


Issued at 248 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Gusty winds and lower relative humidities will gradually improve
this evening...but much slower than usual. Will continue with the
Red Flag Warning for the area until 9 pm mdt this evening. Cooler
with less wind on Tuesday with higher relative humidities in the


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ213>216-



LONG TERM...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...Cooper is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.