Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 202113
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
313 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOOON.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED WITH A COUPLE
OF THE CELLS. THEY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER NORTHWEST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST WYOMING WHICH COULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING A
LITTLE LATER. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WYOMING ALREADY AND THIS SHOULD DROP ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING. THIS TOO COULD KEEP ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT IS RATHER LIMITED BUT COULD STILL SEE A HIGH STRATUS
DECK DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT...ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...ANY HIGH STRATUS DECK WOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE AND AIRMASS IS STILL
UNSTABLE ENOUGH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. ON THE PLAINS...AIRMASS
LOOKS MAINLY CAPPED WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND
TONIGHTS FRONT...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TWO PERIODS OF TROUGHINESS. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AT
LOWER LEVELS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOME OF WHICH MAY COME INTO
FAR EASTERN COLORADO. A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SETTING UP A BIT OF A DRYLINE TO THE EAST OF
FORT MORGAN AND LIMON. EACH AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS DUE TO THE MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EACH OF THE MODELS
SHOW A PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK RIDGING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A
STRONG...DIGGING TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THE ECMWF HAD BEEN SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND
TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS TIL AROUND 03Z/04Z PER UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...BUT OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD BE STABILIZING THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25-30 KTS NEAR SHOWERS THIS EVENING. BEHIND FRONT...THERE
MAY A HIGH STRATUS DECK OF 4000-6000 FT AGL BUT AIRMASS IS RATHER
DRY BEHIND FRONT SO NOT TOTALLY SURE OF ITS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE
VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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