Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260210
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
810 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONVECTION IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST FEW DAYS...BUT THERE IS
SOME AROUND. THERE IS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TOO. THE
STORMS/CELLS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...THAT IS A NOVELTY IN
ITSELF AS OF LATE. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F OVER
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MODELS HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
CWA...MOSTLY ZONAL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS TO
MOVE ACROSS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS NEUTRAL FOR THE CWA ON
THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE LIKELY FOR THE CWA THE NEXT TWO PERIODS.
WE SHOULD HAVE SOME NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT. FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT PROGGED FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S F TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS THIS EVENING...THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MINOR AMOUNTS. THERE IS A BIT MORE
CAPE PROGGED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
COMPARED TO THE CURRENT SITUATION. WILL KEEP "CHANCES" GOING THIS
EVENING BASED ON REAL DATA...AND THEN 10-40%S FOR LATE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-5 C WARMER THAN
TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRIER
IT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST CAPES AROUND
700-900 J/KG...WITH THE DRIER AIR AOB 750 MB AT DENVER. HIGHER
CAPES IN THE 1600-1800 J/KG RANGE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG. THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. NAM12/GFS SHOW THE BEST CAPES OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...THE NAM12 PUSHES THE INSTABILITY FURTHER WEST INTO THE
FRONT RANGE. IN ANY EVENT...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
THE MAIN TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THAT
TIME WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE FRIDAY
AFTN/EVNG...SO BETTER TSTM COVERAGE THERE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS TSTM COVERAGE IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL END AROUND 03Z
WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY 06Z. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT THE
AREA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE ABOVE 6000 FEET. FOR MONDAY...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITH THE MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CURRENT COVERAGE...A
STORM OVER ANY GIVEN AREA COULD PRODUCE AT MOST 0.25 INCH. A FEW
PLACES COULD GET TWO OR THREE OF THESE BEFORE THE CONVECTION STOPS
LATER THIS EVENING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON`S CELLS SHOULD PRODUCE EVEN
LESS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON THE PLAINS.

CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CACHE LA POUDRE IN
WELD COUNTY AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS THROUGH WELD..MORGAN AND LOGAN
COUNTIES.

BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN/TSTMS MAY RETURN FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE MOVE INTO
THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...RJK/COOPER


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