Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240334
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
934 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR. STILL A FEW
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CLOUD
OR WIND TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. UPDATING TO DROP LOWS TONIGHT A
COUPLE DEGREES ON THE PLAINS AND 3-5 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARK COUNTY.
ONLY RISK OF A STORM INTO EARLY EVENING WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF OUR MOUNTAIN FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
LAST NIGHTS AUTUMN-LIKE LOWS.

FOR MONDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMING ON THE PLAINS WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AND PUSH 90F OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED.
PLAINS LOCATIONS WILL STILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
CONVECTION. OVERALL...MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE DENVER CYCLONE SHOULD BE THINNING MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GRADUAL DISPERSION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THE
MDLS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO BY LATE IN THE AFTN SO WL KEEP THE MENTION OF
POPS IN THE GRIDS. SMOKE ISSUES WILL HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH BY THAT TIME. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND GET
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THERE WILL BE
SOME MENTION OF POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA...PROBABLY JUST SOME
LIGHT PCPN. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. SOME WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE AFTN. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER REGION ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
STILL SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...FOR A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN/EVNG. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
UP TO NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR THROUGH MONDAY. STILL SOME SMOKE POOLED UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 10 MILES...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISPERSE AND BE LESS OF A FACTOR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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