Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 130328
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
928 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Made adjustments to the wind tonight behind the front, with more
northwesterly direction second half this evening along the urban
corridor, then light and variable and turning easterly by morning.
This easterly flow will bring in slightly more moisture, enough
for some low clouds. Models were bringing in broken to overcast
skies around 2000 ft AGL, however they had more moisture over the
Nebraska panhandle than what is actually occurring. With less
moisture expected, the more widespread clouds should stay more
along the South Platte River valley and not come in much to the
urban corridor. A slight chance of patchy fog as well there, as
well as down near Limon - but not enough coverage to add into the
grids/forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A weak trough over eastern Montana/Wyoming will continue to move
off to the east today. A cold front associated with this system
will push through the area tonight. At the upper levels of the
atmosphere, a west-southwest flow aloft will keep the airmass dry
across the area. Expect overnight temperatures to be cooler
tonight due the cold front passage. Only the NAM model, shows low
clouds over the eastern plains late tonight and early Friday
morning. Added a little cloud cover tonight, but will keep skies
partly cloudy to mostly clear. Temperatures will fall close to
normal Friday with highs in the 60s while dry conditions persist.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A strong southwesterly flow aloft will be over the region on
Friday night, ahead of an upper level trough over central Idaho at
that time. The upper level disturbance will pass across Wyoming
and brush northern Colorado on Saturday. Weak mid level qg ascent
will pass across the cwa Saturday morning, with moderate qg
descent in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will
develop in the mountains and foothills north of Interstate 70 on
Saturday. Across the northeast plains, too dry for showers but
gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures still on tap
following the passage of a cold front that will move across the
area Saturday morning. By the afternoon, gusts of 30-40 mph will
be possible north and east of Denver, strongest near the Nebraska
and Kansas borders. The wind will decrease by Saturday evening.
The rest of the weekend into next week will be dry with
temperatures climbing back to around 70. The flow aloft will be
northwesterly Sunday through Tuesday, moderate on Sunday then
weakening into Tuesday. By the middle of the week, the ridge axis
slips to the east, the flow aloft will increase with a west to
southwesterly flow over the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 927 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday with high
clouds at times. Northwesterly winds behind this evenings front
will slow to light and variable likely by 06z, then more easterly
after 10z. In reviewing the latest models, seems like less low
level moisture is expected to move in after 10z on the easterly
flow, so will keep few/sct at 1500 to 2000 feet for the slight
chance of low clouds. The more widespread cloud cover should
remain in the South Platte River valley. Winds will increase out
of the east by 18Z Friday.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Kriederman



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