Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 222147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
247 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

The weather challenge for the period is the timing of snow over
the region. Light snow is moving into western Colorado with the
increasing moisture from an upper level trough over the West. The
increasing moisture ahead of the system will stretch over the
Great Basin and into Colorado with the help of an upper level jet.
This will bring snow to the mountains starting this afternoon and
continue through Thursday evening. A cold front will drop south
out of Wyoming Thursday afternoon but progress will be impeded by
a surface low over the SE portions of the CWA. Various models
indicate this low keeping precipitation to the North closer to the
Wyoming border through most of the day with light snow making it
into Denver and south of I-70 around 6 pm Thursday evening.
Amounts will be higher in the mountains with areas of Rabbit Ears
Pass seeing the highest amounts at 14 inches with lesser amounts
over the divide. For the plains the higher amounts of 2 to 4
inches will be closer to the Wyoming border with trace to 2 inches
elsewhere. Temperatures will drop overnight with lows below
freezing and mid to upper 30s on Thursday. Further south the front
is expected to wash out keeping areas in southern Lincoln county
warmer with highs in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

Upper level low will be centered over the Nebraska panhandle
Thursday evening. It will track east across Nebraska Thursday night
and into Iowa Friday. For north central and northeast Colorado, a
north to northwest flow aloft will prevail. Light snow is expected
across northeast Colorado behind the exiting trough. Over mountains,
orographic lift will produce snow. For Friday, gusty northerly
winds are expected over the eastern plains as a surface high drops
south into Wyoming. Along the Front Range winds turn
northeasterly. This upslope flow may produce light snow in and
near the foothills. Temperatures will be cold Friday with highs
mainly in the 20s. Light snow will be possible in the mountains
due to orographic lift. In general, snowfall amounts are expected
to be light, though roads may become snow covered in places at

For the weekend, westerly flow aloft will prevail. A fast moving
short wave trough will race across the four corners and Southern
Rockies Saturday night and Sunday. This could bring snow to the
mountains along and south of Interstate 70, otherwise dry
conditions are expected. Temperatures will be cool Saturday with
readings in the 30s across northeast Colorado. On Sunday,
temperatures are expected to be near normal.

An upper level trough will move onto the California coast Monday.
Southwest flow ahead of it will bring mild and dry conditions. As
this trough approaches, the chance for snow will increase over
the mountains Monday night. The trough is expected to push across
the Central Rockies Tuesday. The best chance for snow will be
over the mountains. Temperatures will cool to near normal. On
Wednesday, a cool and dry northwest flow aloft will prevail
across Colorado.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 240 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
remain from the east through 02z before switching SE then veering
around to NNW with frontal passage around 08z. A mid level cloud
deck will move in by the early morning hours but will stay VFR.
Light snow will be possible over the area by the late afternoon on
Thursday with a mid level BKN deck and increasing push from the
north with some gusting between 20 and 25 kts possible.


Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ241-246-247.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST
Friday for COZ031-033.



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