Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS BRIEFLY WENT NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...BUT NOW TRENDING MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS A BIT
GUSTY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL AS ALONG
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WEB CAMS STILL INDICATING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. MAY ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
AIRMASS COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
SPREADS INTO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WILL ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WHEN MID LEVEL ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. LATEST
MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH
FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER.
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PARK COUNTY AND
PALMER DIVIDE WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. WILL
KEEP THE LOW POPS FOR THE DENVER AREA NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE EVENING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH DENVER AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE QG
DESCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...THE QPF GENERATED BY MUCH OF THE MDLS IS
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. BEST CHC OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN ZONES
36...37 AND 41. DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH WARM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT HAS PASSED AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
NORTHERLY WINDS. LATEST RAP AND HRRR INDICATING WINDS TO REMAIN A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH 21Z BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY. WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
TAFS SEEM REASONABLE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 21Z...MAINLY AT KAPA AND
KBJC. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH. CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000
FEET AGL FOR A SHORT TIME...MAINLY AT KAPA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...D-L


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