Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 251611
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

STILL SEE SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
HANGING AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT CUMULUS
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH HIRES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY NEAR
THE MOSQUITO RANGE NEAR PARK COUNTY...WILL ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARK COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN SUMMIT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

HARD TO FIND A CLOUD OVER THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THE NORMAL DRAINAGE
WIND PATTERNS OVER THE PLAINS HAVE A TAD OF EASTERLY-NESS TO THEM.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY OVER THE CWA FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
BIT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S F TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.40 TO 0.70 INCH
RANGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. THERE IS A LITTLE CAPE PROGGED LATER
TODAY...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. IT IS PRETTY WEAK. THERE IS
A TINY BIT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON
SOME OF THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT
FOR NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY`S HIGH`S LOOK TO BE 0-1.5 C
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

ON FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING A DRY AND MILD DAY TO COLORADO.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO IN THE 80S.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A STRONG CUT OFF LOW CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND BE LOCATED
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WEST OF
COLORADO SATURDAY. THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND THEN START TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF
COLORADO. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THOUGH BY LATE SUNDAY
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY
AS THE MAIN LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL HAVE SCATTERED POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL GO SO WILL GO WITH LOW POPS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 906 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRAINAGE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEASTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 21Z BEFORE VEERING AROUND BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND DRAINAGE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN


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