Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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966
FXUS65 KBOU 020336
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
836 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

UPPER LOW OVER CENTER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY
OF TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS EVIDENCED BY THE WATER
VAPOR STLT...WITH THE STRONGEST 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. LATEST RAP13 KEEPS MODERATE QG ASCENT IN THE
MID LEVELS...WITH STRONGER QG ASCENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FM THE
WATER FAVOR WIND PROFILE SHOWING A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS
ENHANCED THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
THE WIND PROFILE WL BECOME MORE NNELY LATE TNGT...ONCE THAT OCCURS
THEN THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE SRN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WINDS GUSTING 25-30KTS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH REPORTS OF SNOW DRIFTS TO 4FT DEEP NEAR
STERLING RESULTING IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES AS WELL. BY LATE
TNGT/TUESDAY MORNING...THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF CO. WL KEEP THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS LIKE THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH
OF DENVER MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD BY AN INCH OR
TWO...AND THE GUSTY WINDS COULD PRODUCE DRIFTS IN EXCESS OF 3 FT
SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER AS WELL. DRIER AND WEAKER NORTHERLY FLOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...SO SHOULD SEE A STEADY
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER THAT TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW TO PERSIST INTO TUE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

COLORADO ALWAYS FINDS A WAY TO MAKE THESE FORECASTS DIFFICULT AND
TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION. SNOW HAS CERTAINLY EXPANDED AND BECOME
HEAVIER ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FLOW
HAS REALLY TAKEN ITS TIME TURNING MORE EASTERLY PER THE LATEST
PLATTEVILLE AND KFTG WIND PROFILERS. PERHAPS THIS COULD BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THE SLOWING OF THE STORM AS INDICATED ON THE
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A DENVER CYCLONE HAD
DEVELOPED AND WAS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE FAR
EASTERN SIDE OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. THIS IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK WESTWARD AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH STRENGTHENING
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A
RESULT...THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD FINALLY BE ABLE TO WORK BACK INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AT LEAST THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. SNOWFALL RATES
WERE RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN THIS AREA WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR
RATES...SO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. WE
HAVE REDUCED STORM TOTALS BY AN INCH OR TWO BASED ON THE LACK OF
SNOW EARLIER IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
SNOWFALL MAY ACTUALLY BE HEAVIER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED TO HELP
MAKE UP FOR THE LOSS...AS THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY
IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS STORM.
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COLORADO SPRINGS HAD ALREADY RECEIVED
ABOUT 8 INCHES OF SNOW SO INTENSITY IS THERE...JUST A MATTER OF
GETTING THE WINDS TO COME AROUND. OVERALL...STILL EXPECTING A 6 TO
12 INCH STORM TOTAL ON THE PLAINS...HEAVIEST LEADING TOWARD THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH LIMON ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS MAY ALSO EXTEND NORTHEAST
TOWARD AKRON AND HOLYOKE WHERE SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP AS LOW PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. FOOTHILL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN TAKEN DOWN BY SEVERAL INCHES AS TODAYS SNOWFALL HAS REALLY
UNDERPERFORMED THERE.

WITH REGARD TO WINDS ON THE PLAINS...EAST WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
AROUND 30 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THEY WILL
TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GUSTS...WITH 15 TO
25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND DRIER SNOW LATER IN THE EVENT...SHOULD SEE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...MAINLY
FROM EASTERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES INTO WASHINGTON AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. WINDS
ARE MARGINAL SO NO BLIZZARD WARNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN STATEMENTS.

THE SYSTEM IS DEEP AND SLOW ENOUGH TO BRING A NORTH/NORTHEAST
COMPONENT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SO SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE
IN THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR TWO FROM DENVER AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TRAVEL TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW COVERED
ROADS. SOME ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...AND THE DEPTH OF NEWLY FALLEN SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRY THINGS OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK WHEN A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PASSES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR ON THE
PLAINS...BUT MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED
BY THE TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE
TO THE FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT THAT
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT IS GOING TO BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS EACH OF THE MODELS WANT TO DROP THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION SOUTHWARD OVER UTAH AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE PLAINS WILL BE LEFT UNDER A WEAK...SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AS THE RISING MOTIONS MOVE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THIS
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...TAKING ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IT PRODUCES WITH IT. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVER COLORADO BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LATTER SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS IT MOVES INTO THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING IN A
PRETTY GOOD PUSH OF COLDER CANADIAN AIR...POINTING TO A COOL WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 803 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
AVERAGE AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...WITH PEAK RATES AROUND 1
INCH PER HOUR IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 7 TO 10 INCH RANGE AT MOST
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
IFR/MVFR 15Z-18Z TUESDAY AS SNOW DECREASES. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
UNTIL 05-06Z...THEN THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
UNTIL 10-12Z THEN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISUAL
LANDING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 21Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ033>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...COOPER



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