Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250026
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
826 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE SFC LOW OVER ND THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRACK E OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR W CWA.

HEALTHY WAA AND PLENTY OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO JUMP
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING CU IN THE MVFR CATEGORY OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO BE FUNNELED UP
IN THE S-SE FLOW. MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION WILL BE TO OUR W...LOOKING
AT SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORM TO NEAR FAR W
CWA LATE THIS EVENING. RIPE CONDITIONS FOR TS DEVELOPMENT ARE
CURRENTLY OVER SW AND S CENTRAL MN...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
/PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES NEARING 2IN/. THIS AREA HAS 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG.
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING E
TOWARD W LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE IWD AREA. FCST MODELS INDICATE A
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF STORMS OVER N WI AROUND 3-6Z.
DIMINISHED INSTABILITY OVER UPPER MI SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND TS TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH E OF IWD. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A LLJ OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS OVER THE FAR W
BRIEFLY. STRONG STORMS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR W IF STORMS ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE
INSTABILITY BEGINS DIMINISHING.

AS FOR MONDAY...LOOK FOR RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS W TO E...WITH
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING CENTRAL AND E...CLOSER TO THE EXITING COLD
FRONT/TROUGH AND FARTHER FROM THE NEARING HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS.
QUICKENED THE EXIT OF THE TS ACTIVITY A BIT FASTER. HIGH TEMPS WILL
STILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE W HALF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND MAINLY DRIER PATTERN WL BE IN STORE
THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A LOWER AMPLITUDE/MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHETHER THERE WOULD BE
SOME INTERACTION BTWN THIS NRN BRANCH FLOW AND A WEAKER SRN STREAM
IN THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE TREND THRU MID WEEK IS FOR A MORE ROBUST
AND DRIER NRN STREAM FLOW...LONGER TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

MON NGT...THE CWA WL BE UNDER A SLOWLY VEERING WSW FLOW ALF TO THE S
OF VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING EWD THRU FAR NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT OVER THE SE CWA WL BE WEAKENING...GUIDANCE HINTS
A SECOND COLD FNT PUSHED ALONG BY A TRAILING UPR DISTURBANCE THAT IS
EMBEDDED IN THE VEERING FLOW ALF AND STREAKING ACRS NRN LK SUP/
ADJOINING ONTARIO WILL SURGE ACRS THE CWA. COMBO OF DRY AIR ALF AND
DIURNAL COOLING WL LIMIT PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY
COLD FROPA...BUT WL INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF
OF THE CWA CLOSER TO TRACK OF TRAILING SHRTWV AND/OR WEAKENING
PRIMARY FNT/LINGERING HIER H85 DEWPTS NEAR 12-14C UNDER AREA OF
DEEP...ALBEIT RATHER WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND SHRTWV. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LLVL COOLING
BEHIND THE FROPA...SHOWING H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS 5C OVER THE
FAR NW BY 12Z TUE. SO MIN TEMPS WL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN
TNGT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA.

TUE...HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR WITH PWAT FALLING AS LO AS 0.50 TO
1.00 INCH OVER THE S WL ARRIVE ACRS UPR MI. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME MID/HI CLDS OVER MAINLY THE SRN TIER ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN
STREAM WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU THE LOWER LKS...GUIDANCE HINTS
THE AIRMASS BLO H7 WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN SO FAR N OF SFC BNDRY
IN THE LOWER LKS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WHICH
INDICATED THE DEEPER MSTR TO THE S WOULD RETURN FARTHER N AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND BRING SOME PCPN
TO THE SE CWA...BUT THE 12Z VERSION HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS WETTER
SCENARIO. H85 TEMPS VARYING FM ARND 8C OVER THE NW TO ARND 13C OVER
THE SCNTRL WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS FM THE 60S NEAR LK SUP TO NEAR 80
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY.

TUE NGT/WED...BULK OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE A MORE WNW
CONFLUENT FLOW ALF AHEAD OF SHRTWV RDG EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER WL BRING HI PRES/DRY AIR TO THE UPR LKS AND
SUPPRESS DEEPER MSTR TO THE S. THE 12Z CNDN MODEL DOES HINT AT SOME
MID/HI CLDS LINGERING INTO WED ON THE NRN EDGE OF SHRTWV PASSING TO
THE S IN THE SRN STREAM...BUT ITS FCST LLVLS ARE TOO DRY FOR PCPN.
TUE NGT WL BE PLEASANTLY COOL AS H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE ARND
8C/PWAT 0.50-0.75 INCH. WITH DRY AIR AND H85 TEMPS IN THE 8-10C
RANGE ON WED...EXPECT MOSUNNY CONDITIONS AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION.

WED NGT/THU...DRY HI PRES SHIFTING TO OVER SE ONTARIO IS FCST TO
DOMINATE AND BRING CONTINUED DRY WX TO UPR MI. AFTER ANOTHER COOL
NGT...TEMPS ON THU SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN ON WED AS H85
TEMPS REBOUND TO 10-12C IN LGT RETURN SSW FLOW ARND DEPARTING SFC HI
PRES.

EXTENDED...SHRTWV/DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH FLOW IS
FCST TO AT LEAST SKIRT THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA IN THE THU NGT TO FRI
NGT TIME PERIOD BEFORE A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV MOVING
THRU THE WNW NRN BRANCH FLOW CROSSES UPR MI ON SAT AND DRIVES THIS
MSTR TO THE S. GIVEN SOME TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES ON VARIOUS
SHRTWVS...WL CARRY NO MORE THAN THE CONSENSUS LO CHC POPS. DRY WX
SHOULD BE THE RULE NEXT SUN WITH HI PRES FOLLOWING THE SAT FROPA.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME ARE LIKELY TO RUN AOB NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL BRING
SCT SHRA/TSRA TOWARD UPPER MI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF ANY TS...ONLY MENTION OF
VCTS INCLUDED AT IWD AND NO TS AT CMX OR SAW AT THIS TIME.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO SAW LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS W TO E ON MONDAY AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON GIVEN
THE HUMID AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT MON WILL THEN WORK TO CLEAR OUT ANY FOG FROM W TO E
AS DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...E
TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY/TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15-25KT SHOULD
BE OBSERVED AT SOME OF THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WSW WINDS OF 15-25KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF THE
LAKE ON MON. HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TUE THRU THU...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON





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