000
FXUS63 KMQT 160853
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER UPR LAKES BTWN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND BROAD RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO IS BUILDING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES.
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...STILL PRETTY MILD
TOO OVR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH TEMPS IN MID-UPR 50S SOUTH CENTRAL
FROM ESC TO MNM. SECONDARY SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING WHICH HAS TURNED WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BAND
OF MID CLOUDS ALONG AXIS OF H8-H7 FRONTOGENESIS/FN VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS NOW MAINLY AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN WI INTO MENOMINEE
COUNTY. RADAR SHOWING NARROW AND BROKEN BAND OF HIGHER ECHOES.
COUPLE SPOTS IN NORTHERN WI REPORTED LGT RAIN EARLIER...SO HAVE PUT
A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY THROUGH SUNRISE.

REST OF THE DAY...QUIET AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. AREA OF STRATUS SINKING INTO FAR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR MAY TRY
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN CWA. DISTANCE TIMING TOOL INDICATES ARRIVAL
OF BULK OF MOISTURE BY MIDDAY OVER EASTERN CWA. COULD EVEN BE
EARLIER AS SOMETIMES THE MOISTURE WILL ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR. THINK THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE TERM HEATING MAY BE A STRETCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN CWA IN THE NORTH AS NORTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW ONLY GETS ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE OVER
NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA. SINCE WATER TEMPS ARE STILL ONLY AROUND 40
DEGREES IN NEARSHORE AREAS...READINGS RIGHT NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YDY...GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 40S. MEANWHILE...
MIXING TO H85 SUPPORTS READINGS BACK ABOVE 70 DEGREES TOWARD WI
BORDER AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME MIXING AWAY FROM MARINE
COOLED AIR INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR OUT WILL ALLOW DWPNTS/RH VALUES
TO LOWER CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTN AGAIN. MIN RH VALUES COULD FALL BLO
25 PCT WEST HALF. STRONGEST WINDS THOUGH...GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH INTO
EARLY AFTN...WILL BE OVER THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER/MORE
MOIST. THINK WE WILL BE OKAY WITHOUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT.
DAYSHIFT CAN LOOK AT WIND TRENDS AND ISSUE IF NEEDED LATER THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHILE PWATS DROP BLO 50
PCT OF NORMAL EAST HALF. MID-HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE INCREASING LATE
ALONG WI BORDER AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME FORMS ON THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. FARTHER EAST...WHERE SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR...PREFER
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WENT WITH LOWS MID-UPR 20S IN THE
FAVORED COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST HALF AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED AT 12Z FRI WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH FRI. THE 00Z/16 GFS AND NAM SHOW
A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA LATE FRI...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY OVERDONE BY THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN WAY OVERDOING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATELY. WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE GEM/ECMWF FOR POPS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRI ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND.

A FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO MOVE N ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
HAVE LIMITED POPS GIVEN SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS AND LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRI.

SUN LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INCREASING SLY FLOW AND
MOVING THE FRONTAL ZONE N OF THE CWA. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE 70S INLAND. PRECIP CHANCES ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN STARTING AROUND THIS TIME AS MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS
HANDLING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT/PRECIP. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE OVER THE W AND N CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEING OVER FAR ERN UPPER
MI.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE GOING INTO MON...BUT SO DOES
UNCERTAINTY...AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA. AGAIN...MODELS
HAVE POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH THE TRICKY
NATURE OF CONVECTION...MAKING FOR MUCH REDUCED CONFIDENCE MON INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MON WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN
SUNDAY FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH DECREASING TEMPS TUE AND WED. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT N-E WINDS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI
PRES DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR BLO 25 KTS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXPECT MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA