Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 100528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1228 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EST SAT DEC 9 2017

LES will continue to gradually weaken through this evening while
shifting N due to winds becoming more westerly. A more dominant LES
band will develop across the Keweenaw and into NE Upper MI as a
shortwave and SFC trough advance toward the area. This heavy snow
band will shift onshore as the SFC trough moves onshore, likely
resulting in a short burst of very heavy snow along the lakeshore
Sun morning. Behind the trough, moderate LES in NNW wind snowbelts
will result. Snowfall tonight and Sunday will be greatest near the
base of the Keweenaw and E of Munising with 6-8" (possibly as high
as 10") forecast. Elsewhere near Lake Superior, totals will
generally be in the 2-5" range. Night shift may need to add an
Advisory for Marquette County for late tonight and Sun, but didn`t
want to do so now since we have an advisory currently in effect.
Otherwise, headlines should work as they stand now.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM EST SAT DEC 9 2017

The continued northwest flow will persist through much of the
extended periods, as the 500mb trough carved over the Great Lakes
region will slowly begin to weaken. Upstream amplified ridging will
begin to weaken; however, the ridging remains and will continue to
send weak lobes of vorticity southeast towards the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region.

Sun ngt thru Tue will feature a clipper moving south across Central
Wisconsin, which will allow winds to turn easterly/northeasterly.
This will likely setup ideal conditions for LES bands to push inland
towards Marquette County during the day Mon. Guidance differs on how
much QPF will accompany the system; however, it does appear SLR will
be hovering in the 25:1 to 30:1 range. Have nudged QPF down to
around .25 to .50" from 00Z Sun thru 00Z Wed, with the bulk falling
midday Mon thru late Mon ngt. Snowfall totals could exceed 6" for
portions of Marquette County, mainly closer to Lake Superior and
Alger County. As the clipper slides southeast, winds will turn
northerly and then northwesterly. Weak surface ridging is progged to
push into the upper midwest Tue; however, it does not arrive over
the Upper Peninsula. Which indicates we will continue a northwest
flow and likely periodic LES.

Temps Mon/Tue will be well below normal, with highs likely
struggling to warm beyond the low/mid-teens.

Another shortwave will dive southeast Wed/Thur, with increased
chances for periodic snow showers and continued temps in the 20s
with overnight lows in the single digits above zero.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1228 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2017

Lake effect snow will ramp back up later tonight mainly at KCMX
in a convergent westerly wind flow resulting in IFR conditions. As
a lake-induced trough moves onshore late tonight and Sun morning
winds will shift to a northwest to north direction bringing lake
effect snow showers into KIWD and KSAW with a period of MVFR to
IFR conditions. Lake effect snow showers should diminish or end
Sun afternoon with improving conditions at the TAF sites as high
pressure builds in from north of Lake Superior.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 327 PM EST SAT DEC 9 2017

Northeasterly winds will gust to 20 to 30 knots tonight and into
early Sunday with light freezing spray possible, especially across
the eastern half of Lake Superior. Late Sunday, winds will weaken to
below 20 knots but then increase Monday afternoon and evening with
gale force gusts to 35 knots and heavy freezing spray possible. A
few gale force gusts to 40 knots are possible across the eastern
half of Lake Superior late Monday. Winds will then weaken to 20 to
30 knots on Tuesday and below 20 knots on Wednesday.

Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ006-

  Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for

  Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this
     afternoon for MIZ005.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Beachler
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