Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 160821
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
321 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 408 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated an amplified pattern with a
ridge from srn CA to central Canada and a trough from Quebec into
the northeast CONUS resulting in nrly mid/upper level flow through
the wrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge from nw Ontario through
ern MN was slowly building to the east as nnw flow LES continued
across Lake Superior.

Tonight, as the ridge builds into the area and the winds diminish,
the higher res models suggest that lake induced troughing and
land breezes will focus the LES bands into the n cntrl cwa and
along the shoreline near Marquette by late tonight. With -16C
temps at the top of the 3k ft inversion, expect mainly light snow
showers but with high SLR values aoa 30/1 with the shallow
convective cloud in the DGZ.

Thursday, expect any remaining LES to diminish during the morning as
the ridge builds into the ern cwa and winds become offshore.
Otherwise, mainly cloudy conditions will prevail with low level
moisture remaining below the lowering inversion. Highs will range
from the lower 20s east to lower 30s west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the upper Great
Lakes 12z Fri with a shortwave moving into the area Fri night
through Sat morning. Behind this shortwave...ridging builds back
into the area. Quiet, dry and warm weather will continue through
this forecast period.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the central
U.S. 12z Sun. This ridge amplifies as it moves into the upper Great
Lakes 12z Mon. A shortwave moves through the area 12z Tue with more
troughing for Wed. The warm air associated with the ridge gets
pushed further south with time as colder air makes a return to the
area on Thu. We are on the southern edge of the colder airmass as a
cold front moves through on Wed. Much above normal temperatures will
cool to slightly above normal by Thu. Looks warm enough that most
pcpn will be rain. Late Tue night and early Wed morning, looks like
there could be a little freezing rain possibility with temperatures
slightly below freezing.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1223 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

Lake effect snow showers are showing a diminishing trend tonight and
have generally only affected KSAW earlier this evening with light
snow. Look for MVFR conditions at all the TAF sites to improve to
VFR overnight into Thu morning as drier air continues to diminish
lingering les and erode lower cloud cover.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 408 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017

With high pressure building into the region, winds to around 25
knots over the ern lake will continue to diminish tonight. Winds
through the weekend will remain at or less than 25 knots as the
pressure gradient remains week across the area in the absence of any
major pressure systems.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JLB



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