Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 190802
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
402 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over Pennsylvania
this morning and a ridge across the plains which moves into the
upper Great Lakes today. Nam brings in some deeper moisture and 850-
500 mb q-vector convergence into the west late this afternoon and
the deeper moisture moves through quickly tonight. Still looks warm
enough for pcpn to be all rain tonight and kept it that way. The
freezing drizzle and light snow over the upslope areas of Marquette
County will end this morning as drier air slowly moves in. Overall,
did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017

After a warm day Mon (highs in the 40s to around 50), an upper
trough will bring much colder air into the region. By 12Z Tue, 850mb
temps will be down to -10C to -18C, with a slug of -18C air dropping
through the CWA Tue afternoon into Tue night. Even with cold air, N
to NW wind LES will be quite minor due to incoming dry air and
increasingly anticyclonic flow ahead of a 1030+mb SFC high that will
move through on Wed.

Precip returns to the forecast late in the week, with potential for
a shortwave and SFC low to move somewhere through the region. Quite
uncertain as model solutions vary significantly from run to run and
model to model. No specifics to give right now, but there is
potential for rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet, depending on
many factors that won`t be sorted out for a few days.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 118 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017

At IWD, expect VFR conditions through the rest of the forecast
period. Southerly winds will become gusty as a trough approaches
Sunday.

At CMX, cigs will remain around 010 through tonight with lingering
moist layer trapped below subsidence inversion and since winds stay
off of Lk Superior. Low cigs should scatter out Sun morning with
broken mid clouds moving across.

For SAW, NW-N winds off Lk Superior will also keep cigs near 1k ft
through tonight. Low clouds should finally break out Sun morning
though with S-SE winds developing off Lk Michigan the low clouds may
be slower to depart.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 319 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017

Winds through the period look to stay 30 kts or less. Strongest
winds will be Mon night into Tue evening as cold air moves back
across Lk Superior. At this time, no gales or heavy freezing spray
is expected into next week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.