Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 171558
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1058 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2017

12z surface/composite analysis shows a 1006mb surface low over far
southern Lake Michigan...tracking east-northeast toward a 3-4mb/3h
pressure fall center over far southern Lake Huron.  Water vapor
imagery shows a pair of short wave troughs in the vicinity...one
moving across southern Lower Michigan and another upstream over far
southeast Minnesota.  Bulk of the precipitation across the upper
Lakes associated with the Lower Michigan wave...with a generally
broken area of light radar returns across the Upper Peninsula.
Precipitation has thus far been falling mostly as light snow...
though likely some liquid precipitation across Menominee County
where temperatures are marginally near freezing.  12z APX/GRB
soundings both exhibiting elevated warm layers ~4k feet in depth
(nearly 4C magnitude warm layer at GRB).

Precipitation is expected to continue to thin during the afternoon
as forcing with Lower Michigan short wave trough peels away...while
Minnesota short wave trough slides to the southeast and away from
the forecast area.  So will allow the current Winter Weather
Advisory for Menominee/Delta Counties to drop at 16z...though there
will still be a bit of wintry mix around (and maybe a bit of drizzle
this afternoon). Meanwhile...think some sun will break out across
western Upper as the afternoon progresses. Temperatures expected
to climb into the mid 30s most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 436 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2017

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a still well-defined
shortwave near Chicago tracking ENE. Another shortwave trof was over
MN. Pcpn associated with the former shortwave has managed to lift
into S central Upper MI as expected. As of 09z, the northern edge
extended from near Iron River e to Escanaba and then across far
northern Lake MI. Not alot of ground truth on ptype is avbl, but it
appears pcpn in Menominee County has been mostly if not all FZRA.
Obs in N central WI show some -SN at times and with the column
slighly colder to the w of Menominee County, would expect pcpn
moving into the Iron Mtn and especially Iron River area to be more
-SN than -FZRA. Pcpn in the Escanaba area is probably a mix of
-FZRA/-SN.

Not expecting much more northward push of pcpn over the next few hrs
with shortwave now due S of the fcst area and moving ENE. Otherwise,
models are in good agreement showing a few more hrs with pcpn area
remaining organized before a rapid diminishing trend gets underway.
Advy for Menominee/Delta Counties will remain in place this morning,
but would not be surprised if the advy can be cancelled early given
the rapid diminishing of pcpn fcst after 12z. As lingering pcpn ends
early this aftn, expect decreasing clouds from the w. With an
increase in sunshine over the w, temps over the w should rise into
at least the upper 30s. Coolest readings, low/mid 30s, will be over
the e where clouds will be thicker longer.

With a dry air mass over the area tonight, pcpn is of no concern.
Although SW flow will begin to increase as a deep low tracks E to
Hudson Bay, some patchy shallow fog could develop due to input of
some moisture into the near sfc layer from pcpn that has fallen over
the S central and some melting of snow elsewhere. Better potential
of fog would be over the S central where winds will be lighest thru
the night. That said, have left mention out as vis probably won`t be
too restricted if some fog does develop.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 421 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2017

Well above normal temperatures expected through the extended
forecast time period.

Broad upper-level ridging will build across much of the central part
of the U.S. through the end of the work week. At the surface, much of
the U.P will be influenced by the northern edge of a broad surface
ridge. As the ridge slides eastward through Friday, winds will become
southerly, helping to edge temperatures into the above normal range
through the upcoming weekend. Most locations will remain in the mid
to upper 30s to around 40 for high temperatures through the extended
forecast. Overnight lows will be well above normal with most
locations expected to see lows drop only into the 20s and low 30s,
which in many cases will be above the normal high temperatures across
the area. Models continue to advertise a low pressure system moving
through the area late Monday into Tuesday, but there is very little
model to model and run to run agreement on timing and placement of
the system; therefore, will stick with a consensus of the models
through this time period. This would keep mainly dry conditions in
place through the weekend before bringing a rain/snow mix to the U.P.
Monday into Tuesday. Again, confidence is very low with the details
of this system.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2017

Overall, a dry air mass will linger across western and northern
Upper MI, likely allowing VFR conditions to prevail at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru the fcst period. However, melting snow today
will add some low-level moisture which could allow for some fog
development tonight. With low confidence in development, fog was not
included in fcst, but if it does occur, it would probably be more
likley to occur at KSAW. Increasing winds above nocturnal inversion
late in the night could also result in LLWS near the end of the fcst
period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 436 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2017

Expect light winds, mostly under 15kt, across Lake Superior today.
SW winds will then increase to upwards of 20-30kt by Wed morning as
deep low pres tracks e to Hudson Bay. As the low continues eastward
and the pres gradient weakens, winds will diminish Wed aftn/night.
For the remainder of the week, expect winds under 20kt as conditions
become unseasonably warm over the Upper Lakes with no significant
weather features impacting the area.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson


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