Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 080000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

BASED ON THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LINGERING DRY AIR ALF TO THE E OF
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SINCE SFC WBLB TEMPS ARE
STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH WBLB ZERO HGT FCST TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HI OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF AND NEAR
LK SUP...ADDED A MIX WITH SOME RAIN INTO THE FCST FOR THOSE PLACES AS
WELL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOIST AND UPSLOPE E FLOW WL BRING LIFR/EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TO
CMX THIS EVNG. AS A MOIST...CYC NNW FLOW DVLPS OVER WRN UPR MI
DURING THE EVNG/EARLY MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SFC LO PRES...A
STEADY -SN WL DVLP FIRST AT IWD AND THEN AT CMX JUST AFTER MIDNGT...
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD UNDER LINGERING DEEP MSTR/A COLD NNW FLOW THAT
RESULTS IN PERSISTENT LES. AT SAW...EXPECT MVFR WX TO TRANSITION TO
IFR BY LATE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FOR A TIME
ON MON MRNG DURING A PERIOD OF STEADY -SN. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN AS THE DEEPER MSTR/STEADY SN EXITS FOR A
TIME...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.