Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 200845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
445 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 443 AM EDT THU APR 20 2017

Moisture streaming into the area ahead of a shortwave and SFC low SW
of the area has brought rain (heavy at times in the south-central)
into the area. Some small hail fell near KSAW for a short time as
higher reflectivities, but otherwise all precip seems to be rain at
this time. As the shortwave moves into the area this morning and
afternoon, rain will mix with or change to snow over mainly the NW
third to half of Upper MI. Best accumulations will be over the
Keweenaw where generally 2-5 inches is forecast through today, with
lesser amounts of 1-3 inches for the higher terrain of the north-
central. With northerly upslope flow and wrap around
moisture/forcing tonight, expect most precip to change over the snow
except for right along the Lake Superior shores and over the east.
Could see another 1-2 inches of snow in the higher terrain N wind
favored areas of the north-central and Keweenaw. Did not make any
changes to headlines (Winter Wx Adv for the Keweenaw and an SPS for
the north-central).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT THU APR 20 2017

Models suggest that a progressive split flow pattern will prevail
into the middle of next week with temperatures generally remaining
below average.

Friday through Saturday, High pressure building into the northern
Great Lakes in the wake of Thu`s departing low will bring a drying
trend to the cwa Fri, with gradual clearing as the low level flow
becomes more anticyclonic. Expect some lingering -shsn/shra and
fzdz/dz from Marquette eastward in the morning where cyclonic nnw
flow will persist a bit longer. Lingering clouds and northerly winds
off of Lake Superior will limit max temps to the lower to mid 40s
near the lake and upper 40s to lower 50s well inland. The
combination of light winds and clearing with PWAT values falling
under 0.25 inch will allow temps to fall into low to mid 20s inland
west near the lower end of guidance. A good deal of sunshine and 850
mb temps rebounding to around 4C on Saturday will allow max temps to
rebound as high as the low 60s over the western interior.

Sunday, A nrn stream shortwave trough is expected to move through nw
Ontario and drag a cold front across the nrn Great Lakes from
Saturday night into Sun morning. With only moderate fgen forcing and
limited available moisture, only chance pops for rain showers mixed
with snow were mentioned for mainly the north before the dynamics
weaken. Even if there is a return of at least some sunshine with
trailing high pres on Sun, a north wind off Lk Superior and h85
temps falling as low as -5 to -6C will result in below average temps
ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s north to upper 40s to near 50f
south central.

Mon-Wed, a developing WAA pattern ahead of the next significant
shortwave moving out of the Central Plains may bring some light rain
to the west as early as Sun night. However, the models were in
reasonable agreement with the timing of higher pcpn chances from
Monday night into early Tuesday as the shortwave and associated sfc
low move through the region.  Although there is still some
uncertaintly with the track, a northerly trend with the path of the
system will favor mainly rain.  Cold advection in the wake of the
system will lead to diminishing pcpn changing over to a mix of snow
and rain for Tue night into Wed.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT THU APR 20 2017

Approaching disturbance will spread pcpn and deteriorating
conditions into Upper MI overnight. Expect conditions at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW to fall to IFR overnight and then to LIFR this
morning. The rain may mix with or change to snow at times with snow
probably more likely to become the predominant ptype at KCMX. May
not be until this evening that pcpn becomes all snow at KIWD/KSAW.
LLWS is possible at KIWD overnight. Meanwhile, easterly winds should
become gusty to 25-30kt at KCMX late overnight thru at least mid


East-northeast gales of 35 to 40 knots are expected from this
morning through the day today. Winds will decrease to around
20 to 30 knots as they back to the north tonight into Friday.
Winds will then stay below 25 knots until Mon night and Tue with
east to northeast winds of 20-30 knots are forecast.

Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001-

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for

  Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ162-

  Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for LSZ244>248-264-265.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ248-250.

  Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221.



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