Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 280727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS






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