Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 310822
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF



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