Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 261102
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AM WITH AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/MN ARROWHEAD
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LOSE STEAM AS IT DRIFTS TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR PER LATEST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
WILL BRING TO AN END ANY PRECIPITATION THAT PERSISTS. WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH INCREASE MIXING ON THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO
DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE...AREA TO SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY EXCEPT FOR FAR EAST WHERE CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGEST.
STILL LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THE WEST WILL MIX OUT QUITE WELL THUS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP AND
MOVE INLAND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 16 C OVER THE WI
BORDER REGION AND WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF HOLDING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT LOWER/MID 80S ALONG AREAS FAVORED BY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH SOME MODERATION ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. COMBINATION OF SFC FRONT AND DECENT 850-500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING WITH MU
CAPES ON THE WANE BY THE TIME THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. STILL
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AFTER THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING OFF BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH DRYING ALOFT LATER ON THIS AM CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIFR CIGS.
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. TIMING TO BE
DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION...AS ANY UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELAY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. AT THIS TIME...KCMX TO BE THE SLOWEST OUT OF
THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AS UPSLOPE NW WINDS TO HELP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
HOLD ON TIL AROUND 14Z. AFTER THEN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNDER INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ONT THE BACKSIDE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE BUT REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS. AFTER THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND
WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT





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