Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 241927
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
327 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb over New England and
another over Southern Saskatchewan and one over Central Ca this
morning. There is also a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes this
morning and this moves through the area this afternoon. Another
shortwave moves into the central plains 12z wed and this moves into
the upper Great Lakes by late Wed afternoon. Nam shows some 850-500
mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture moving through the cwa
this afternoon before exiting by this evening, then both return by
late Wed afternoon across the west. GFS and ECMWF show about the
same thing as well. Overall, going forecast had things well in hand
and have the pops diminishing tonight and bring them back into the
west late Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Challenging forecast in the long term as almost every period will
see chances for convection sparked by multiple shortwaves ejecting
out of the upper trough over the western CONUS. As is expected in
this scenario, models disagree and have worse than normal
continuity. Leaned heavily on consensus blends given limited
confidence in any one model. No chances for severe weather can be
pinpointed at this time.

Wed morning starts the long term in a quiet way as ridging is
overhead. Convection may move in along all or a portion of the WI
border in the afternoon or evening depending on shortwave
timing/track and resulting convective trends.

After Wed just stuck with the blends given aforementioned limited
confidence.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

As a weak front moves through the sites this afternoon, some sct
showers are expected that tend to diminish at CMX/IWD late in the
afternoon. Although VFR conditions will prevail ahead of the cold
fnt, the arrival of a shallow moist airmass in its wake will cause
some low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs following its passage at least for
a time. By tonight, lifr conditions will develop at all taf sites as
low level moisture remains trapped at the sfc. This will burn off
during Wed morning at all sites and CMX and IWD will go vfr while
SAW goes to mvfr.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

A period of NE winds of 20 to 25 knots over the western lake is
possible Wednesday as low pressure develops over the plains and
moves to the Upper MS valley. Otherwise, expect winds at or below 20
knots through the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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