Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 250824
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
424 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A 1000MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY AND IS
STRETCHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST-
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONT...AS IT HAS TEAMED UP
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SAW SOME STRONGER
STORMS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...BUT MOST HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND ONLY
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO RAPID
RIVER. AS OF 4AM...THE FRONT IS JUST MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND DEPART THE CWA BY 12Z.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA WITH A FAIRLY NICE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO OCCUR OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS TO OFFSET THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS (SWATH OF 0.5-1.5IN RAIN STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF
KENTON TO JUST NORTH OF WITCH LAKE...TO ROCK..AND SOUTHEAST TO
GARDEN CORNERS). HAVE ALREADY SEEN CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AND THAT LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THROUGH
DAYBREAK. SAW A BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITY AT KIWD IN THE LAST HOUR
AND UPSTREAM OBS ARE ALSO INDICATING FOG...SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH AROUND
9AM. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA OTHER
THAN A POCKET OF DIURNAL CU OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TODAY. WON/T
BE MUCH RELIEF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS)...AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL (UPPER 80S) DUE TO THE WARMING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE...DON/T EXPECT TOO MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. BUT MODELS
SHOW A POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA TONIGHT (LARGELY FOCUSED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR). WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...THAN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND STEEP 900-700MB LAPSE RATES (TO 9 C/KM)...FELT HAVING
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS REASONABLE
AND KEPT IT NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL PERSIST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FCST PD (SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY. A FEW OF
THE MODELS GENERATE UP TO 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE WEST HALF BUT FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT SHRA SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY FCST. WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
UPPER MI WITH 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
COULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN 8H TEMPS CLIMB TO 20-22C. HOW WARM THE HIGH
TEMPS GET WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. IF WE GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE...IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI COULD REACH THE LOW 90S ON TUESDAY. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE OF MODELS KICKING OFF WAA SHRA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS DEPICT DRIER CONDITIONS
UNDER RIDGING INTO TUESDAY SUGGESTING GFS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA NEXT WEEK WILL BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PROPELS A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI. LAYER PWATS
NEARLY TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES OF 800-1500
J/KG WOULD INDICATE T-STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. FRONT EXITING EAST OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW LINGERING CONVECTION OVER ERN CWA TO END BY WED AFTERNOON.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS DEPICT SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WILL PUSH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY BE MORE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS MODELS SHOW ABSENCE OF GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION. 8H THERMAL RIDGE
OF 18-20C AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY
PROVIDED CLOUDS DON`T MOVE IN TOO EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPES
OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES WILL
WARRANT THUNDER MENTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
HAS ENDED AT KIWD AND KCMX. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS REST OF
THE NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AT ALL THE TAF SITES BUT DRY AIR
SWEEPING IN THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
RETURN CONDITIONS TO VFR. ONLY OTHER ISSUE FOR REST OF THE DAY WILL
BE GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLY OVER 20 KTS AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST FOR TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY
BELOW 20KTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO DIMINISH
TODAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW 15KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO HUDSON BAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW 20KTS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...AS A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND A
HIGH BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS UP TO 25KTS FOR
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.