Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 251744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS LOOKING
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU ND INTO MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS
MOVING INTO SE MANITOBA WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING THRU FAR ERN MN.
AS EXPECTED...SCT TSTMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT IN MN LATE
YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING. STORMS THEN ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AND PUSHED
E INTO WI/UPPER MI. AS OF 09Z...SHRA/TSTMS EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE HURON MTNS AND CRYSTAL FALLS. CONVECTION HAS HELD
TOGETHER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND IT HAS ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR
OR TWO THAT A NOTABLE DIMINISHING TREND HAS BEGUN. NSSL WRF RUN FROM
00Z/24 AUG DID A GREAT JOB AND BETTER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL IN
CAPTURING WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...
INCLUDING THE DIMINISHING TREND NOW UNDERWAY.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
CONVECTION PER SPC MESOANALYSIS OF 3HR ML/MUCAPE CHANGE...OVERALL
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IS NOTABLY LESS THAN WHAT WAS SUPPORTING
THE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
SHRA/TSRA TO WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH E THIS MORNING. QUESTION THEN
BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS
THAT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN. NSSL WRF INCLUDING THE NCEP ARW/NMM WHICH
ALSO DID WELL WITH CONVECTION LAST NIGHT SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. WILL BASICALLY FOLLOW THAT
SCENARIO GIVEN A LACK OF MUCH FORCING THIS AFTN. WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...TODAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS AS HIGH AS
THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF. COULD BE WARMER DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. E WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE TROF MOVES INTO THE ERN FCST AREA
THIS EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGER...ISOLD SHRA AND
PERHAPS A TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT...BECOMING COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET AND GENERALLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE...HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH. IN GENERAL...EXPECT THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SUPPRESS
ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE MINOR ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD TRY TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT FEEL THE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INHIBIT
ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WILL JUST SHOW PASSING
MID CLOUDS AS THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE OTHER ITEM IS THE MUCH
COOLER AIR BELOW 850MB THAT WILL BE SURGING INTO THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL SETUP A RETURN TO ANOTHER COOLER
PERIOD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA. WITH THE COLD AIR JUST
STARTING TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...HIGHS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WILL
STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE AREAS OVER THE
WEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S WITH THE
GUSTY WESTERLY WIND OFF THE LAKE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
(AIDED BY THE MORNING MID CLOUDS LIMITING HEATING AND MODEL AVERAGE
850MB TEMPS AROUND 6-7C)...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. ALONG WITH THAT COOLER
AIR ON TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE
DIURNAL HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AND WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE FOCUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH MODELS STILL VARYING ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO BRUSH
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA AND WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES IN THAT
AREA. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS
ALSO VARYING ON THE LOCATION THIS WAVE...SO WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS (SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCES) WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THIS
EVENING...MAINLY CNTRL/E AND ESPECIALLY NE GIVEN THE HUMID AIR MASS
AND PCPN THAT HAS OCCURRED. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL THEN WORK TO CLEAR OUT THE FOG
FROM W TO E. BEHIND FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-25KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND THEN OVER CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT THRU
THU...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. THE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI DESPITE THE HIGH MOVING TO THE E.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON





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