000
FXUS63 KMQT 022003
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
303 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS ON THE WAY TONIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NW ONTARIO PASSING THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING...SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO MN/IA WILL BEGIN
TO RIDGE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WINDS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS CALM BY LATE TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR OVER REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
TO JUST 15-20PCT OF NORMAL WILL AID IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS PER PREVIOUS FCST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON GENERALLY
BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GEM TEMPS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND -30F...BUT OVERALL...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE -10 TO -25F RANGE. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO
FALL TO AROUND -35F. LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C
BY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS FROM THE FRIGID OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHSN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
JUST CASE SOME WEAK LES BANDS FORM IN ISOLATED CRACKS OF MOSTLY
ICE-COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM RELATIVE TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON OR AFTER THURSDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS LIMITED.

FOR REFERENCE...850MB TEMPS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY /SAT/ WERE AROUND
-25C WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C...LEADING TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS...GIVEN THAT MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THAT TIME. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COLDER...BUT GIVEN THAT MON NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO MON. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE MON NIGHT-TUE...SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WED SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE TEENS AS A SFC
HIGH MOVES E OF THE CWA. NOT ALL THAT MUCH CONFIDENCE AFTER WED DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THRU THE AFTN AT KIWD AND KSAW.
HOWEVER...AT KCMX...INCREASED WEST WINDS AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD HAVE RESULTED IN BLSN AND
VIS OCCASIONALLY REDUCDED TO IFR THIS AFTN. AS DISTURBANCE/SFC TROF
PASS THIS EVENING...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MAINLY KCMX
AND PERHAPS EVEN AT KIWD/KSAW. SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED IF IT HAPPENS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
20KT TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A TROF AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-25KT MON AS A TROF
SWINGS THRU NRN ONTARIO. WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA FOR MON
NIGHT THRU WED WILL RESULT IN WINDS UNDER 20KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WED NIGHT/THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE W.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS