Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261830
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
230 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU
THE UPR GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ENTERING CONFLUENT ZN BTWN NW FLOW OVER ONTARIO ARND CLOSED UPR LO
OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND WLY SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS...
THIS DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS HINTED BY WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS
OVER THE CWA. MOST OF THE LINGERING PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA/SN IS OVER
THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE EXITING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE...BUT
LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO LINGER FARTHER W...
ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL GUSTY NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BUT MUCH DRIER LLVL
AIR IS JUST TO THE N ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN ONTARIO.
THE 00Z YPL RAOB IS QUITE DRY IN THE LLVLS...WITH H925/H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS 17C/11C. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF THE CLDS ARE
MOVING STEADILY TO THE S ACRS LK SUP WITH THIS DRY ADVECTION IN THE
LLVL NE FLOW. THIS CLRG LINE IS APRCHG THE KEWEENAW AT FCST ISSUANCE.
LOOKING TO THE W...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV SLIDING
E THRU CENTRAL MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.

TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING...SHORTER
TERM MODELS ALL SHOW STEADY LLVL DRYING TODAY IN CONTINUED STEADY/
SLOWLY WEAKENING NE FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF ONTARIO HI PRES. GIVEN
THE STLT CLD TRENDS/FALLING SFC DEWPTS JUST TO THE N...PREFER THE
MODELS THAT SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE LLVL DRYING. SO EXPECT LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT
12Z...LAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NCNTRL. SOME LO
CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD DISSOLVE N-S BY
LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV IN MN IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND BRING SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINLY TO THE WI BORDER AREAS...INFLUX OF
LLVL DRY AIR WL PREVENT ANY PCPN AND LIMIT IMPACT TO JUST MORE MID/HI
CLDS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER...NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY TO NO HIER THAN ABOUT 40 NEAR THE LK. TEMPS WL TOP OUT ARND
50 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

TNGT...ANY LINGERING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV WL CLR
THE FAR SCENTRAL BY 00Z THIS EVNG...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NGT AS THE SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXTENDS A SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WL BE
A PERSISTENT LIGHT NE FLOW TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER LINGERING OVER
ONTARIO. BUT WITH PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO
END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SHARP TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN POLAR
JET STREAM PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM
SHEARS OUT WED INTO THU AS IT PUSHES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ON WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND AS THAT SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. APPEARS COOLER
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST CPC FORECAST THEN SHOWS
GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP SETS
UP FOR MAY 3RD THROUGH MAY 8TH.

AS IT HAS LOOKED LIKE FOR A WHILE...MAIN SFC FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL
BE HIGH PRESSURE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS TODAY LIFTS TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU...SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH HALF OF CWA. WEAKENING FORCING ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH BLO 700MB INDICATES MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ON THU. WEAKENING SYSTEM DEPARTS THU NIGHT THEN
COULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS AGAIN FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE MOVING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. GRADUALLY WARMING H85 TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS INLAND TO
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE 50S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S BY FRI OR SAT.
GRADIENT NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE
MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH THE HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS IN VCNTY CONTINUE
TO PREFER NIGHTTIME TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING INLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO LOW TD/RH IN THE AFTN. WINDS
FOR MOST PART LOOK LIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE INCREASING...THEY SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.

CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS ECMWF
WAS SHOWING SYSTEM BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT
BUT 00Z RUN DELAYS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM UNTIL LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT/MON. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING. OVERALL
NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

ENE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HI
PRES RIDGE BUILDS S THRU ONTARIO AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. E TO
NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU SAT TO THE S
OF PERSISTENT HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC



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