Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 211028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
528 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast, a
trough on the Gulf Coast, a trough dropping into the upper Great
Lakes this morning. This trough digs into the lower Great Lakes
tonight. Moisture quickly moves through the area today along with
some lake effect pcpn. Basically, going forecast has things well in
hand and did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Some lingering light LES Wed, but nothing of significance as it
will be weakening and shifting offshore.

Attention turns toward a late week system that models currently show
moving across southern Canada. Main threat from this system will be
gusty winds (possibly approaching advisory criteria in some spots)
both ahead of and behind the low, but details with that will be
dependent on track and strength which are both still in question.
Thermal profiles will support rain until after the cold front/SFC
trough moves through late Fri, but synoptic QPF looks like it will
be out of the area by that time.

Light to moderate LES looks likely for the weekend in NW wind
snowbelts as 850mb temps fall to around -15C.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 527 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Strong w to nw winds, -shsn and MVFR conditions will continue
through most of this forecast period. At KCMX, winds are likely to
gust in excess of 40kt into the morning hrs. Winds will gust upwards
of 35kt at KIWD and 30kt at KSAW. The gusty winds will also lead to
some blsn at KIWD/KCMX. While MVFR conditions should prevail, will
probably see some brief periods of IFR at KIWD and especially at
KCMX where winds will be strongest, kicking up more blsn. Winds will
diminish during the late aftn and evening. Conditions will improve
to VFR at KSAW in the evening.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 252 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

A strong low pressure system will track eastward just north of Lake
Superior this morning. NW gales of 35 to 45 knots across much of
Lake Superior will continue today. Winds will diminish to under 25
knots while becoming westerly through Wednesday morning, before
backing to SW winds of 20 to 30 knots Wednesday night. Westerly
winds of 20 to 30 knots Thursday will back to the south on Friday.
Another strong low pressure system will then bring the potential for
northwest gales of 35 to 40 knots Friday night into Saturday.

Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ001-003.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EST
     this evening for MIZ006.

  Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ002.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ248>251-267.

  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ243>245-264>266.

  Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ246-247.

  Gale Warning until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon for LSZ162-

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for LMZ248-250.



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