Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 260911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
511 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 444 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

A couple (more) shortwaves will bring convection to the area this
afternoon/evening and then moving in late tonight.

Early morning rain will continue to exit the area over the next few
hours and fog will dissipate this morning over land.

Big question for today is the extent/coverage/intensity of
afternoon/evening convection as the shortwave (currently over NE)
moves through. Most models show some convection over the area today,
but models that show the least intense convection do not adequately
show the line of convection over IA and SE MN, so leaned more on
models that are better representing that. Good timing of the
shortwave to intercept peak heating. Have max temps up to 80 F over
the interior north central and west, and up to the mid 80s near the
WI border. Reasonable expectation for MLCAPEs today are around 1,500
J/kg, although the NAM has over 2,500 J/kg (appears to be too moist,
which is a known bias) and the GFS has just over 1,000 J/kg. The
1,500 J/kg was based on adjusted NAM soundings, the SREF mean and
UCAR ensemble. Low level winds will be on the light side, but with
40-45 kt westerlies, 0-6 km effective shear will be 40-50 kts.
Hodographs are favorably oriented for storm organization in a hockey
stick shape. With lake breezes developing today, most concern is
over the central (mainly north central) where E moving storms may
become pinned to the lake breeze boundary and become right deviant
as they follow the boundary to the SE. If this occurs, any right
movers will see enhanced inflow and shear, and could produce a
tornado or two. Confidence in the tornado threat is very limited and
the circumstances are quite conditional, but it can`t be ruled out.
Isolated large hail and damaging wind threat is a greater potential.
Will include wind/hail threat in the HWO/EHWO, lower confidence of
tornado threat will exclude that from being mentioned.

Additional, non-severe convection will approach or move into areas
near the WI border late tonight as another shortwave approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Southwest mid/upper level flow from the plains into the western
Great Lakes will prevail through Saturday night between a mid/upper
level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the east.
Shortwave troughs emerging from the plains will bring rounds of
shra/tsra into the cwa. However, confidence in the the timing,
intensity and position of each of the shrtwvs is low. By early next
week, a more zonal and quiter pattern is expected. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the period.

Friday, Models suggest that a weak shortwave trough lifting through
the upper MS valley into the western Great Lakes will bring an
increase in shra/tsra into Upper Michigan by afternoon. Although
cloud cover will thicken, if temps climb into the mid 70s, MLCAPE
values in the 500-1000 J/Kg range with sfc-6km shear of 30
knots may still be enough for some isold strong storms.

Saturday into Sunday, the stronger shortwave trough lingering over
the central plains is expected to also lift into the area supporting
another round of shra/tsra. The shortwave may linger close enough
to the area to keep shra/tsra going on Sunday that should taper off
late as drier air moves in on low level westerly flow.

Monday through Wednesday, Models were in reasonable agreement that a
more zonal pattern with drier air over the region will bring a
couple of of dry days as weak mid level and sfc ridging prevail.
However, a stronger shortwave or mid level low approaching from the
northern plains will bring shra/tsra back by Tuesday night into

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Area of rain showers over the area will continue to move northeast
the rest of tonight. Thunderstorms have been isolated at best so
left those out of the TAFs. Conditions will eventually lowering to
lifr/vlifr at all sites. Expect conditions to gradually improve Thu
morning reaching VFR by Thu afternoon at all sites.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 444 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Expect winds at or below 20 knots through the forecast period. Fog
will continue to be a problem at times and will be dependent on the
rain that falls.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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