Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 071750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

00Z RAOBS AND MODEL H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT
OVER ONTARIO. H85 THERMAL TROUGH PRESENT WITH H85 TEMPS OF +2C AT
CYPL AND +3C AT KINL. ALL THE WHILE...TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE MID
TEENS C AT KGRB AND KAPX. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH ALL
OF CWA AND RAIN HAS ALL BUT ENDED IN THE EAST. SECONDARY AREA OF LGT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFFECTED WESTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT RADAR AND
OBS INDICATE THAT HAS DIMINISHED. 00Z CYPL SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE
H85-H75 AND BASED ON OBS FM UPSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR...MOISTURE IS
LOWERING WITH CIGS BLO 3KFT NOTED. INCREASED SKY COVER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THERMAL TROUGH SETTLING OVERHEAD AND GIVEN THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM. RAP/GEM-REGIONAL SEEMED TO HANDLE MOISTURE
TRENDS THE BEST EARLY TODAY. THOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE SKY
COVER OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ATTM...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PERSIST OR DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF CWA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MODERATING TEMPS H925-H85 BY
EARLY AFTN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS COMPLETELY AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE AND MIXING...HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF MID MAY THAN EARLY JULY. READINGS WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH STIFF
NRLY-NWRLY WIND OFF THE WATER. HIGH TEMPS INLAND TOWARD THE WI
BORDER WILL REACH THE UPR 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

COOL DAY LEADS TO A VERY CHILLY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND
PWATS WELL BLO 0.5 INCH SHOULD LEAD TO PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WITH DWPNTS THIS AFTN DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S...SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...WITH ISOLD LOWER 30S NOT OUT
OF QUESTION OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR NOW...WENT AS LOW AS MID 30S AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FROST IN AREA FM KENTON TO WATERSMEET TO IRON
RIVER.

LOOKING AT AVAILABLE RECORDS FOR 8 JULY...SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS
COULD BE CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE. WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO
OFFICIAL RECORD FOR NWS MQT WHICH IS 40 DEGREES SET IN 2009. JUST FOR
COMPARISON...RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AT OUR OFFICE IS 34
DEGREES ON TWO DIFFERENT DAYS. AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RECORDS...MIN
TEMPS IN THE 30S IN JULY FOR THIS LOCATION ARE NOT THAT UNUSUAL AS
MORE THAN HALF OF THE DAYS IN JULY HAVE RECORD LOWS IN THE 30S.
IRONWOOD/IRON MOUNTAIN AND NEWBERRY /ALL HAVE LONGER PERIOD OF RECORD
THAN NWS OFFICE/ HAVE EVEN MORE DAYS WITH 30S OR EVEN 20S FOR RECORD
LOWS. AND FINALLY AT THE STATION AT STAMBAUGH IN IRON COUNTY...EVERY
DAY IN JULY HAS A RECORD LOW IN THE 20S OR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DURING THE LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA. TROF ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
CNTRL CANADA (FAIRLY NOTABLE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR JULY)
WILL EXTEND WEAKLY INTO THE NCNTRL CONUS/GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN...IT WILL WEAKEN/LIFT N DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED 500MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS
WHICH WILL THEN RETROGRADE QUICKLY AND EVOLVE INTO A RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NW TERRITORIES BY MON. THIS WILL FORCE
INCREASED TROFFING INTO SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR UPPER MI...THESE LARGE SCALE CHANGES WILL MEAN
BLO NORMAL TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TREND GRADUALLY UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COULD BE QUITE COOL (FOR JULY STANDARDS) FOR A TIME NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON LONGITUDE OF WRN RIDGE AXIS AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE
ACTUALLY BECOMES. AS FOR PCPN...THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY WITH
ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING BY TO THE N OF HERE. AS THE FLOW TURNS
WSW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE HIGH/RIDGE
RETROGRADING FROM THE SE CONUS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN LOOKS
UNLIKELY ATTM.

ON WED/THU...A FAIRLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW
AND ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AND NW MN WED. SCT CONVECTION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WITHIN NARROW BAND OF INSTABIILTY...BUT WITH FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF
HERE WED...PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT E WED NIGHT/THU...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN APPROACHING FRONT WASHING OUT WITH TIME.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PCPN WED NIGHT/THU. IF ANYTHING...ISLE ROYALE MIGHT GET CLIPPED
BY AN ISOLD SHRA.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON FRI...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF DRY
WEATHER. THE GFS AND GEM DO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE
WEAKENING OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THRU THE BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS...NOT EXPECTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT TO
PROVIDE A RISK OF PCPN HERE ON FRI.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE HIGH/RIDGE
RETROGRADING FROM THE SE CONUS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND. PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TSTM CLUSTERS RUNNING ALONG THE EDGE OF MID LEVEL CAP AND
EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE
WAVES AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY INSTABILITY BUILDS TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES...FCST WILL SHOW MOSTLY LOWER RANGE CHC POPS. 00Z ECMWF
TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MORE
SUPPRESSED...RESULTING IN WHAT WOULD PROBABLY BE A DRY WEEKEND HERE.
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN THIS IDEA AND IF OTHER
MODELS TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BEFORE DOWNPLAYING WEEKEND PCPN
CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTEROON AT SAW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTN AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

N-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTN EXCEPT WSW WINDS MAY KICK UP TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS. THE HIGH
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY BLO 15 KTS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF CROSSING NRN
ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...JLA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.