Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 301714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
114 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 432 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

A low pressure system moving across southern Hudson Bay is dragging
a SFC trough and cold front across the area. In the mean trough
there is a weak trough over the central CWA out ahead of the main
trough/front, which is just entering western Lake Superior early
this morning. Showers along the first trough (and associated with
the right entrance region of an upper jet) have continued to
diminish, leaving most of the area dry. No precipitation is being
observed along the trough/front to the west, but some are possible
over the southeastern CWA this morning and early afternoon as there
remains weak elevated instability. No severe weather is expected.
Otherwise, clearing skies and a calm, clear night tonight with lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Upper trough heads into Quebec Wed into Wed night with nw flow
persisting across the Great Lakes. Shortwave dropping through the
flow could combine with expanding cu/sc to produce a few light
showers or sprinkles. Thermal trough with h85 temps down to 6c
settles across area by Wed night. Northeast winds providing upslope
along with sufficient moisture and over-water instability could lead
to isold lake effect showers or sprinkles over ncntrl Upr Michigan.
Dry advection will end any lake effect potential by midday on Thu
and skies should clear out as h85 rh drops blo 30 pct in the aftn.

Ridge moving across on Thu night should lead to chilly conditions
inland. Continue to go toward lower end of guidance which gives
upper 30s for typical cold spots. Dry weather with warming trend
expected Fri into Sat as the high slides east and return flow
develops ahead of cold front moving across the Northern Plains and
eventually the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Theta-e ridge and
axis of ml and mu capes up to 1000j/kg along with any shortwaves
working through ahead of deepening longwave trough will support
increasing chances of shra/tsra Sun into Mon. Consensus of models
led to high chance to likely pops. Temps will be above average
beginning on Sat and conditions will be fairly humid.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

MVFR cigs will continue at SAW theough mid afternoon in the wake of
the frontal passage...otherwise expect VFR conditions at the taf
sites through the period.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 432 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Expect winds mostly under 20kt through early this week as pressure
gradient remains generally weak. Stronger NW to N winds with gusts
to 25 kts may occur on Wed as a high pressure ridge builds toward
the area in the wake of cold front passage early on Tue morning.
Eastern Lake Superior would be favored for the stronger winds. Winds
diminish to less than 20 kts rest of the week as high pressure moves
across. S to SW winds increase to around 20 kts on Sat as pressure
gradient tightens btwn the exiting high and sharpening sfc trough
over the Northern Plains.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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