000
FXUS63 KMQT 240409
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1209 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR GREATER BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 17Z SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER OVER UPPER MI IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.  THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARED TO BE DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN H850 AND THE LAKE SURFACE
RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10 C. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
WERE INDICATING AT LEAST A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR -SHSN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED
KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR ALLOWED THEM TO SLOWLY RISE...THEREFORE
DELAYED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
SUN FINALLY PEEKS THROUGH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND 17Z ARE SHOWING WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO
25 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED...AS LOW PRESSURE
IS SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL ALLOW
INCREASED WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE AREA
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS...COUPLED WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT OF NORMAL...INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
U.P...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S AND WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LOOK FROM MODELS FOR LARGER SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. TROUGH BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
UPPER LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SLOWLY MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND BY MEMORIAL DAY WHILE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM
HUDSON BAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. PROBABLY WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DAYTIME HIGHS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 60S
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S INTO THE
50S NEAR THE LAKES. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD...LAKE
BREEZES MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. PRETTY LOCALIZED STRONGER
WINDS THOUGH. STILL APPEARS TO BE SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES
IN THE FAR WEST CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ON
22 MAY...NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING QPF INTO WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. EVEN THIS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THOUGH. EXPECT DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET STREAK NORTHERN ONTARIO TO
CAROLINAS TO INCREASE MID CLOUDS OVER WEST...BUT WILL KEEP RUNNING
WITH DRY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOK VERY LOW...BUT
CANNOT COUNT OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...WEATHER SHOULD STAY
DRY BUT COOL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY...
APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME
WHICH COULD OFFSET POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

PATTERN CHANGE STARTS UP TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES FARTHER
EAST. RESULT IS TRANSITION TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN HOW QUICK/EAST TO BRING QPF ON TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FLATTENS OUT BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 THETA-E
RIDGE/H85 DWPNT PUSHING PAST +12C AHEAD OF DEVELOPING H85 TROUGH AND
H85 JET AIMED INTO UPR LAKES SUPPORTS EXPANDING POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS POPS ARE IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE NOW WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SFC DWPNT RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SHRA/TSRA AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT GET TOO HOT...BUT WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS COULD REACH THE
80 DEGREE MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC