Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 181953
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ANOTHER QUIET AND DRY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE ENTRANCE OF A WARM FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO TOMORROW WITH
GREATER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON IS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN
BAY...AND THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A FINE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING. AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LIGHT FLOW WILL BRING LITTLE LIFT FROM
CONVERGENCE AND EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY WITH THE
ENTIRE REGION REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (UNDER CLEAR SKIES) TO LOW TO
MID 50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO (INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT).

ON TUESDAY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD...REACHING FAR WNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT WHICH IN ADDITION TO
DAY TIME INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER INTO THE UPPER
GENESEE VALLEY. WITH MOISTURE STILL LIMITED AT THIS TIME...AND THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL MODEST AT BEST WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES
POPS AS COVERAGE AREA WILL BE SPOTTY.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AT
THE START OF THE DAY WILL SLIDE OUT INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE
NEXT NOTEWORTHY MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE LOW
PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST FOR THE BULK OF OUR AREA TO ENJOY
ONE MORE DRY DAY...A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
FINGER LAKES. COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THIS MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THESE SLIDE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY
FADE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY TREND DOWNHILL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE GRADUALLY PUSHING THEIR ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT INTO NEW YORK STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. BURGEONING
MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENCROACHING
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER TIME...WITH THESE BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...BEFORE
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...BOTH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUPPORT APPEAR TO BE PLENTY
SUFFICIENT FOR BUMPING POPS UP TO LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CONVECTION PROBABLY THEN TRENDING A LITTLE
MORE SCATTERED IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AS
THE BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OUT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...AND PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT THESE WOULD BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH THEIR GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE FADING SOME WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT
RIGHT AROUND MID-AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT WARMING OF OUR AIRMASS.
MORE SPECIFICALLY...HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70 TO LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS AVERAGE OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY CLIMBING BACK TO AT
LEAST THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY LATER WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERING IN
THIS GENERAL VICINITY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERING OVER OUR
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS STRENGTHENING RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
CANADA...THEN MERGES WITH A LARGER AND MORE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY NOSING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.

WHILE THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO HOW
EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY ALL OF THIS TAKES PLACE...IN GENERAL THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GETS SHOVED OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. FOLLOWING A ROUGH BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS A GUIDE FOR THIS PERIOD...WE CAN EXPECT
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN LIKELY
RETURNING BY NEXT SUNDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH LITTLE NOTEWORTHY WARMING OR COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS EXPECTED...THESE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS RIGHT
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE.
LATE TONIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL EXPAND AND COME CLOSE TO THE KJHW
TERMINAL...THOUGH A 15+ KNOT LLJ WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY PREVENT THE FOG FROM ENCASING THE AIRFIELD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEED
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING BKN STRATO-CU ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BKN CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. HOWEVER THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN LIKELY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
WAVES ON THE LAKES 1 FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE TOMORROW...AND LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND WAVES HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS






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