Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 160016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
816 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Winds will remain gusty behind a cold front which has shifted east
of the area this evening. This front will usher in much cooler
temperatures overnight into Monday with a few lake effect rain
showers. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather
Tuesday through the end of the week with temperatures warming to
above normal again.


A strong cold front is pushing across eastern New York this evening
with some lingering scattered showers showing up on radar across the
western Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region. Winds will
steadily diminish overnight as the parent low pressure system over
southern Quebec departs and the pressure gradient relaxes. Wind
gusts of 30-45 mph will be possible through the evening but Advisory
level winds have ended therefore the Wind Advisory has been

Increasing wrap around moisture and over-lake instability
will bring lake effect clouds and scattered showers overnight as
flow becomes westerly and then northwesterly. There will also be
some contribution from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as well.
Temperatures will drop into the 40s by Monday morning.

Narrow bands of lake effect rain showers will continue southeast of
the lakes on Monday. The peak of the shower activity will be Monday
morning. The activity will then wind down Monday afternoon as high
pressure, subsidence and drier air build into the region. Cold air
advection will keep highs only in the lower 50s at lower elevations,
with mid to upper 40s across higher terrain.


High pressure across the Ohio valley will begin to build northeast
across the CWA Monday Night. This will bring dry weather through the

Temperature-wise, Monday night will be coolest with temperatures in
the low to mid 30s across the interior sections. Climatologically
the growing season has ended across Wyoming, Cattaraugus, Allegany,
Jefferson and Lewis counties where the most widespread frost is
expected. Elsewhere, away from the lakes patchy frost is included in
the forecast but will have to monitor the need for any Frost
headlines if it looks widespread enough.  Warm air advection quickly
begins again on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and
into the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday. Overnight lows show a
similar warming trend with temps Tuesday night mainly in the 40s and
milder Wednesday night into the mid 40s to mid 50s.


A weak trough passes across southern Ontario early Thursday but its
the high pressure centered across the Tennessee Valley and mid-
Atlantic states will dominate throughout this period and keep the
region dry.

The warming trend that begins midweek continues into the weekend
with temperatures well above normal. Highs temperatures in the
upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday will warm to the low to mid 70s
by Saturday...values some 10 to 15 degrees above norm.


Winds will remain gusty overnight behind a cold front as a pressure
gradient lingers over the region. Incoming cold air aloft will also
bring in areas of MVFR CIGS and scattered lake effect rain showers
south and east of the lakes through the overnight. Lake effect will
taper off into Monday afternoon as high pressure ridges over western
and central NY also bringing a return to VFR.


Monday night through Friday...VFR except for local IFR in river
valley fog each late night and early morning.


Gale force winds remain across the lakes behind a cold front which
crossed the region earlier this evening. These gales will generate
significant wave height of up to 11 feet on Lake Erie and 13 feet on
Lake Ontario. Gales should taper off on Lake Erie before midnight
and Ontario through daybreak Monday. The gusty winds will then
require Small Craft Advisories on Lake Ontario as waves remain
elevated through Monday.

Another period of stronger southwest winds will develop Tuesday,
though not as strong as today. This will likely bring a round of
Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lakes Erie and Ontario.



West gales behind a strong cold front will bring significant
wave action to the entire New York shorelines of Lake Erie and
Ontario. Winds will then become northwest and quickly diminish
Monday morning.

The Lake Ontario level is several feet lower than late spring,
and is about a foot above normal for the month of October. The
lower lake level reduces the risk of flooding along the
lakeshore even on windy days. However, the lakeshore is still
very fragile and unstable in many areas following the heavy
erosion from earlier this year. A Lakeshore Flood Warning
remains in effect for the entire Lake Ontario shoreline, with
the potential for more significant shoreline erosion and
associated damage.

Significant water rises to at least 6 feet have occurred on the
northeast end of Lake Erie this evening but is expected to top
out near 8 feet. This combined with significant wave action will
result in water washing over route 5 near Hamburg. With this in
mind, a Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect.


NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Monday for NYZ004>007.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ001>003.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045-063>065.
         Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042-062.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for SLZ022-



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