Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200030
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
830 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SLOWLY FALLS APART.

AS OF 00Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADARS SHOW
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH LEWIS
COUNTY THE ONLY PART OF THE CWA REMAINING TOTALLY DRY AS OF THIS
WRITING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL
RULE THROUGH 04Z-06Z...BEFORE A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS SETS IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND THE NOSE OF
ITS ATTENDANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST DRYING AND DAYTIME HEATING THEN LEADING TO A GENERAL
REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES AND THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS STATED...SOME LOWER-END
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES...WHERE A ZONE OF SUBTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. FURTHER
NORTH...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO THE PASSAGE OF ONE MORE SPOKE
OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE A VERY WARM PERIOD...AND FOR THE MOST
PART...A RAINFREE ONE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES F
ABOVE NORMAL MID JULY VALUES...AND GIVEN THAT THIS COMES DURING THE
`THERMAL SOLSTICE`...THAT WILL EQUATE INTO A SPELL OF UNCOMFORTABLE
WEATHER.

STARTING WITH A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS TIME PERIOD...
A BURGEONING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY WITH
TIME...WHILE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT OUT TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL ENCOURAGE SOME VERY WARM AIR OVER THE PLAINS TO
ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE CORE OF THE
WARMEST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES. H85 TEMPS THAT HAVE
BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10C FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MERCURY READINGS OF 85 TO 90 IN MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY.

NOW FOR SOME DETAILS...
ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL APART EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS.

ON MONDAY...RISING HGTS WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BULK OF THE
REGION WITH A RETURN FLOW PUMPING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE MID WEST. H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TEENS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON READINGS OF 80 TO 85 FOR MOST AREAS.
GIVEN THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THE DAY
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. WILL THUS LOWER CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY FOR
THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER TO SLGT CHC.

IT WILL START TO BE UNCOMFORTABLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM HUMID AIR WILL HOLD LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70 WITH LIGHT WINDS OFFERING LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT RELIEF...IE
PREPARE YOUR AIR CONDITIONERS.

TUESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH H85 TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 20C WILL TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 85 TO
90 AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A
LAKE BREEZE OFF OF `ERIE`...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AN UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WORK AGAINST ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

A WAVY COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER OUR REGION WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE SULTRY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A WAVY COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...COOLER MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIR WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE
STILL A LITTLE AT ODDS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WITHOUT GETTING INTO THE FINER DETAILS...THE ECMWF IS NOW SOME 12
HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE PASSAGE. WILL THUS USE A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND HPC (WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OLD
ECMWF) FOR THE TIMING OF THIS WHOLE EVENT.

THAT BEING SAID...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO ONE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT IT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVERAGE AND THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THAT OF TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND VALLEYS WITH DEW POINTS CLOSE
TO 70 MAKING IT FEEL A BIT ON THE STEAMY SIDE. THE PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH
LIKELY POPS BEING USED IN THE FAR WEST AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. THERE
SHOULD ONLY BE A MINIMAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SBCAPES
ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHILE FORECAST WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. MINIMAL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE VCNTY OF 15-25 KNOTS...SO
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FORECAST CONDITIONS ARE
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE MORE TOLERABLE LOW-MID
60S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WILL THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES (FRI) BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THREE
BEAUTIFUL DAYS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SUN FILLED SKIES AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPS/HUMIDITY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 70S BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SLOWLY FALLS APART. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
04Z-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS STATED...SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT AND LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF KBUF DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH PATCHY IFR FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR BECOMING
LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN SOME
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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