Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 180933
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
533 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LOW DIVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE INITIAL BATCH OF DPVA-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS
UP INTO A TROUGH AND TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ALSO
DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY READINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S BY THIS EVENING.

AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD
SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSITION OVER TO A MORE LAKE-EFFECT REGIME AS
FLOW VEERS WESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
WHILE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SUSTAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN TRANSITION OVER TO
DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST AREAS. REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE-MODIFIED
AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL AND PERHAPS THE
HIGHEST HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT READINGS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WITH UPPER 30S-LOW 40S IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SUB-FREEZING
AREAS WHERE A FEW SNOWFLAKES OR PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE
FOUND LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP EASTERN U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. DURING THE MORNING HOURS EXPECT JUST ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD.
BUFKIT TEMPERATURE PROFILES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOW ENOUGH COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON
GRASS. ACROSS WESTERN NY...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MUCH TOO SHALLOW
AND WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH THUS HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING BENEATH OVERCAST SKIES.

BY THE AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EVENTUALLY ENDING ALL PRECIPITATION. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
WILL HANG TOUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT AND BREAKS
OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -5C AND -7C ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A
COLD DAY. EVEN WITH SOME WARMING OF 850S AND BREAKS OF SUN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY...STILL EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS TO ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST OF EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE REGIONS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE AN END TO THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM. A SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL APPROACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH A
RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW/WEAK
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE DOMINATED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AS THE MAIN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL THEN LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...ATTENDANT BROAD
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST AND/OR
REDEVELOP A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS A
DEEP EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH NIGHT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
AND HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. FOR THE SAKE OF COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS SITUATION COULD EASILY CHANGE IF THE LOW TURNS
OUT TO BE EITHER A BIT FASTER OR SLOWER TO DEPART THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...WHICH SOMETHING THAT SUCH CLOSED UPPER SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK. WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING
GUSTS TO 25KT AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE
SURFACE...BUT QUICKLY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WITH 2-3KFT OF THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY EAST OF THE
LAKES.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST TODAY AND MAINTAIN THEIR
VIGOUR AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTING 5 TO 7 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SIMILAR HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOCUSES WAVE ACTION ON THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF
THE LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THESE
CONDITIONS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS SOMEWHAT OF A RESPITE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BEFORE WAVES BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS
ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
         EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







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