Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 160722
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
322 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies and
troughing over the Pacific NW and a trough in New England. There is
also a shortwave moving through the upper Great Lakes this
afternoon. This shortwave will dig into the lower Great Lakes
tonight and Sun. 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves out this
evening. A weak cold front will move through the area this
afternoon and early evening and kick off some low chance to slight
chance pops. After this moves through, there could be some north
wind upslope pcpn around midnight across north central upper
Michigan with northerly flow off Lake Superior and have some slight
chance pops for this in Marquette County. Otherwise, pretty quiet
and did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

Throughout the bulk of the extended periods, the 500mb heights are
progged to be in a quasi-zonal pattern. This will allow for systems
to easily traverse the Northern Rockies east through the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley. The mid-lvl ridge axis is progged to become
positioned over the Southern Plains, which will likely keep a
frontal boundary displaced along the northern periphery. The
wildcard will be any weak shortwaves that ride along the boundary
and possibly push this feature further south.

Mon/Tue: Southerly flow will advect warmer temps across the U.P.
with some downsloping effects further enhancing temps closer to Lake
Superior Mon. Operational guidance indicates a weak boundary will be
sliding southeast and could bring a chance for showers/thunderstorms
later Mon into Tue. Low-level moisture will increase late Mon, and
coupled with any thunderstorm activity could allow for some
efficient downpours from any stronger storms that develop late Mon.
Temps will likely return to the upper 70s to low 80s, but will hinge
on cloud cover and precip coverage/timing.

Wed-Sat: The boundary will likely meander through the region Wed,
but expected to push south with a weak surface ridge sliding east
from the Northern Plains to the U.P. This will bring a brief break
in precip chances later in the week; however, confidence remains
reduced given the overall longwave pattern still in a quasi-zonal
orientation. Temps throughout the remainder of the extended periods
will be seasonal with highs in the mid/upr 70s to around 80 and
overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

Passage of cold front and development of cool upslope flow will
result in IFR/LIFR cigs overnight tonight through this morning at
KSAW. Elsewhere expect scattered or broken MVFR to VFR clouds.
Skies should be clear at all the terminals by mid morning. Only
concern for the aftn will be gusty northerly winds to around 20
kts at KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 240 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

Winds will stay at or below 20 knots through the period. A cold
front will move through this afternoon and push south of the area,
winds will become north-northeasterly this evening into Sunday
around 15 to 20 knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Beachler
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...07



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