Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 052045
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
245 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

A DEFORMATION ZONE AND VERY WEAK OLD FRONT FORMED BY FLOW AROUND
TWO HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION CENTERS...ONE OVER NORTHERN UT AND
THE OTHER OVER SW CO AND NW NM...IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CO AND UT. AND OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGE CONTROLS
THE FLOW THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHORT-
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FORMING OVER ALL THE RIDGES...
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FOR THE STRONGER ONES...ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET ELEVATION. PWAT REMAINS A TOUCH MOIST
RANGING FROM 0.5 INCH OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE... INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 IN.
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...SOUTHWEST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. AS
THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH...THE LOWER PWATS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO STORM MOTION WILL
BE SLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN US BUT AS THE
WORK-WEEK PROGRESSES...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
ENCOMPASS MOST OF CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTERCLOCKWISE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT LEAST AN INCH
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED
OVER THE VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. THE BEST AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER RIDGES FROM THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS
SOUTH AND OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND SAN JUAN MTS. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WITH OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH.
DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH TAF SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 HAVING ABOUT A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THOSE AIRPORTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...CC


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