Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 142135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
335 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

While the bulk of the strong Pacific storm system and associated
precipitation remains well to our northwest, mid- and high-level
clouds will continue to invade the forecast area tonight as the
warm, favorable southwesterly flow persists. Expect mild overnight
lows resulting from cloud cover and breezy conditions as the tight
wind gradient holds.

Similar conditions will be experienced Saturday. Once again,
unseasonably warm temperatures will continue with highs being some
5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Am not anticipating issuing any highlights for the area, wind or
fire weather, for this afternoon or Saturday. The wind gradient
will lax some tomorrow and relative humidities will gradually

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Going into the latter half of the weekend and into early next week,
yet another upper level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest.
The bulk of moisture ahead of this feature will brush our northern
counties beginning Sunday night. An associated cold front will push
through the forecast area on Monday and bring a decent chance for
precipitation to our northern and central mountains.

A secondary shortwave will impact the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
700mb temperatures are around -4 to -6 degrees C, dropping snow
levels to at or around 9000 feet for the northern mountains. The
GFS shows greater impact, bringing the disturbance right through
the forecast area while the ECMWF has a more conservative track
with less moisture. Am favoring the latter model and restricting
higher POPs to over the northwest Colorado mountains for the
moment. Behind this feature, drier northwesterly flow sets up over
the region on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds west of
the forecast area.

Temperatures will drop back to near seasonal levels on Monday night
into Tuesday behind the cold front. However, daytime highs will
quickly rebound back to normal by the end of the work week as the
ridge of high pressure keeps conditions high and dry. Overnight lows
will remain on the cool side under clear skies.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Cigs will remain aoa 120kft agl as mid to high level cloudiness
streaks across the Great Basin and Central Rockies. No
precipitation will fall from these clouds leaving high probability
of VFR conditions over the 24 hours at all TAF sites. The main
concern will be strong ridgetop winds creating turbulent
conditions and the mixing of these winds to the surface this
afternoon...leading to gusts over 25 mph at times. KRIL...KEGE
have the highest probability of seeing these winds with confidence
slightly lower at KASE and KTEX.




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