Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 281741
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TODAY AS PWATS DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
LENDING CONVECTION A HAND THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW POP UPS LOOK TO BE
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACNW SATURDAY MORNING AND
WILL FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT TO THE NE. AS THIS OCCURS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE
SUBTROPICS THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH NEAR AS HIGH AS SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOR SATURDAY THEN...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER
DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER
THE SAN JUANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR REBOUND INCHING UPWARDS EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EJECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE TO NEAR AN INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH CLOSE TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.
INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME WARMING IN CONCERT WITH
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A MARKED UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY. IN
FACT DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATED TO BRING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DRYING BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS EASTERN UTAH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP
ACTIVITY GOING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IN WESTERN COLORADO.

FLOW CONTINUES UNABATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INDICATED TO DECLINE
AS THE MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA. REGARDLESS...AS IS SO COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
COLORADO.

PERSISTENT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY OF THE COMING WEEK.
HOWEVER...LOCAL VARIANCES CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN FORECAST MODEL/S
INABILITY TO ACCURATELY PREDICT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF MOIST
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAN
JUANS BUT NO TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE
SHOWERS. OUTFLOW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY
AT KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX FROM CONVECTION NEARBY. STORMS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
DOWNSLOPE/UPSLOPE WINDS WILL STEER THE FLOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JAM


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