Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 241716
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1116 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AND 500MB VORT MAX NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH HAS BROUGHT A SOLID MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN HORIZONS OF GRAND
JUNCTION...EAGLE...AND VAIL. DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON SKY
GRIDS AND POP GRIDS TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE DELTA/SOUTHERN GRAND MESA AREA NORTHEAST INTO THE
I-70 CORRIDOR ALONG EAGLE AND VAIL. TELLURIDE AND SILVERTON DID
REPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING
HEAVIER THAN THAT FOR NOW. THE RETURNS ON RADAR ARE HIGH-BASED SO
ONLY THE HEAVIER REFLECTIVITIES ARE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS
POINT IN THE MORNING. THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
STRONG INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONLY THE CASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO. MODELS WERE DRAWING MOISTURE FROM OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL CAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 0.9 OF AN INCH OVER THE SAN JUANS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL LIKELY SPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO EARLY IN THE DAY LIMITING STORM STRENGTH. MEANWHILE...
MODELS INDICATED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CLEARLY DEPICTED IN WV IMAGERY
TODAY ALONG WITH WARM...BUT SEASONAL...TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL RELAX A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
SO EXPECTING LESS WIND.

EXPECT A DIURNAL DOWNTURN IN MOIST CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT FLOW A TAD MORE TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING DRYING TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH OR
LOWER WHICH WILL RESULT IN REDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP A MINOR SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...
AFFECTING MOSTLY WESTERN CO AND LEAVING EASTERN UT RELATIVELY DRY.
BY SUN NIGHT A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACNW AND DIG
SE. THIS WILL PUSH THE HIGH CENTER EAST TO ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.
THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BE CUT OFF SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND
FORCED EAST OVER EASTERN CO AND THE MIDWEST. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE NW U.S. MOVES ACROSS ID AND MONTANA MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER NE UT AND NW CO. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE NORTHERN U.S. CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE WEST AND BECOME SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...PRODUCING A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS PUMPING MOISTURE AS
FAR NORTH AS KGJT...KRIL...AND KEGE TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BLANKET LOCATIONS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND SOUTH TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
KTEX...KDRO...KMTJ...KASE AND POTENTIALLY KEGE THOUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KEGE FOR THE MOST PART. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OTHER
THAN THE OCCASIONAL ILS BREAKPOINT REACHED AT KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JAM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.