Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 282146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
346 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COVERED SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND STORMS WILL
ADVECT NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO AND AZ...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE. BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING/S STORMS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS PW STILL IN PLACE IN MANY
AREAS AND SATURATION SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH TO PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
05Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THE RESIDUAL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO MONSOON-TYPE NIGHTTIME RAINERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE INTERESTING. THE MOISTURE
AXIS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TEXAS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE NORTH AND A BIT EAST. HIGH PW AND CAPE AREA PROJECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO AND NE UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCLUDING UT PUBLIC ZONES 22
AND 29 AND CO ZONE 21.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEFLATED ON WEDNESDAY BY PASSAGE OF THE SHEARING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL NEAR 1 INCH ON WED AND RESULTANT
300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW CO TO SE CO SHOULD SERVE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ELSEWHERE...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SE UT.

RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
MONSOONAL PLUME DISRUPTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL GET
RECYCLED THROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME HINT OF A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS FLOAT RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE EAST SUN-MON...WHICH WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS BACK UP BY MONDAY AS RESULT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALREADY OVER THE AREA WILL FUEL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO WIDESPREAD
RAINSHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...
SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH
OR MORE. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF
SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER.

TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS NE
UTAH...AND NW AND CENTRAL COLORADO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SE
UTAH...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW
CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ006-009-011-
     012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ023>025-027-028.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC
HYDROLOGY...CC



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