Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 240948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF BY
MID MORNING. STRONG 80KT JET STREAK OVERHEAD NORTHCENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO WYOMING THIS MORNING
AND TEMPORARY STABILITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STABLE AIR MASS LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT DOES NOT HAVE THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS SEEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT DOES HAVE THE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR
SITUATED ALOFT...AS WELL AS BETTER MOISTURE GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL SHADOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MANY LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND ALONG AN AREA OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. H7 TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL OVER NE UTAH/NE COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. MOST ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST EXPANDS INLAND AND ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THU AND FRI...AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFYING AS FAR NORTH AS
WESTERN CANADA. THE 305K/310K ISENTROPIC STREAMLINES SUGGEST ONE MORE
EMBEDDED WAVE WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CO FOR THU IN
THE NNW FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
AROUND 0.33 INCH HOWEVER. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS
FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT TO VAIL AND THE ELK MTNS BUT WILL KEEP THE
POPS HERE PRETTY LOW THU.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PACIFIC
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO REACH THE WEST COAST. ONE TROUGH SPLITS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS A CLOSED LOW
BY SUNDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER GFS PLACES THE CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA BY
MONDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN MOVING INTO THE PACNW BY
MONDAY EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT
THOUGH THE GFS DOES CONTINUE A RECENT TREND OF LOWS SETTLING OVER
NRN BAJA. WILL STAY WITH THE BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHELTERED AREAS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 COULD CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z. EXPECT INCREASED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
OVER RIDGE ALSO. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT...EXTENDING DOWN TO THE
SAN JUAN MTNS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAD



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