Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 242146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
346 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AN ELOGATED VORT MAX ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS IS STREAMING MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM THE MONTICELLO AREA
NORTHEAST INTO THE VAIL PASS REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 IN AREAS AND EAST OF AVON THIS EVENING AND
WILL DWINDLE IN COVERAGE AFTER 7PM. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PAC
NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE MOVES ENOUGH TO BRING MORE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST AND BRING
IN A DRYER AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY PW
VALUES DROP BELOW HALF AN INCH MOST PLACES EXCEPT ALONG THE NM
BORDER. SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST
AND THE MOISTURE STARTS TO SURGE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN ON SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS ALOFT ARE MORE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN CO. THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CO MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER ROCKIES ON MONDAY A DRYER
AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN ENTERS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY MID WEEK THE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND THE RIDGE
IS REORGANIZING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN. DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND DAY TIME HEATING
COULD HELP WITH ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ARC ACROSS SW COLORADO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THROUGH 03Z...SCT SHRA AND MAY AFFECT KDRO KMTJ KEGE
WITH LIKELY -SHRA/SHRA EXPECTED AT KTEX KASE WHERE ILS BREAK
POINTS BRIEFLY REACHED. THEN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED -SHRA 03Z-09Z. AFT 18Z SATURDAY SCT -TSRA WILL FORM OVER
THE SAN JUAN MTNS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF -SHRA AT KTEX KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE


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