Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 141309
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
609 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
UTAH AND THE GRAND VALLEY IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. SKIES HAD
LARGELY CLEARED OVER THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS WHILE THE HRRR
AND RAP13 INDICATED ONLY LIGHT LOCALIZED SNOWFALL OVER THE
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIMITED ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRAND
VALLEY AND SNOW HAD STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

THE PACIFIC STORM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST LOW CIRCULATION THAT SPUN UP AT THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND IS TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM MST...OUR
FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME LINGERING ENERGY IS AFFECTING OUR
SOUTHEAST CORNER IN THE VICINITY OF PAGOSA SPRINGS. THE RADAR LOOP
SHOWS THAT A CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER ROUGHLY WEST-CENTRAL
CO EARLY THIS MORNING AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPED BEHIND THE
SOUTHERN LOW...WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN LOW. THE VAD WIND
PROFILE AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
MOST PROMINENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SO EXPECT THAT WITHIN A FEW
HOURS THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. WHEN THIS HAPPENS...NORTHWEST CO AND THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF THE BEST
SNOWFALL. OTHERWISE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TODAY FOR A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS COOLER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN FOR AWHILE.

OF NOTE...DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN CO AND
EASTERN UT. EXPECT THIS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR ACROSS THE
NORTH. THIS AND THE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN CO MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS NEAR ASPEN AND
NORTHWARD. THANKS TO BOU FOR THE COORDINATION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING SKIES...AND THUS MUCH COOLER
NIGHTTIME LOWS.

LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE DAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EJECTED FROM THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND JET DIVERGENCE WORKING ON PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE INTENSITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY UNIMPRESSIVE AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...THOUGH MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE GFS IS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN
SPLITTING THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN EITHER CASE...QPF
OUTPUT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THIS SYSTEM. NEXT SHORT WAVE COULD REACH THE AREA SATURDAY
ACCORDING TO GFS...THOUGH SLOWER ECMWF HOLDS MOISTURE OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN MVFR...AND OCCASIONALLY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY IN
BOTH SNOW AND FOG AT TAF AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED BY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH PEAKS IN SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH WILL BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE STORM CENTER SHIFTS TO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS OF SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHANCES
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AT KGJT...KCNY...KVEL AND KDRO ARE LIMITED
BEYOND MIDDAY.

LATER TONIGHT...FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KEGE...KRIL...AND KGJT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ005.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ001>003-007>009-012-014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ011-020.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-010-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ023.

UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.