Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 261704
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER ALL BUT FAR NE UT THIS MORNING
AS IT CONTINUES TO WRAP CLOCKWISE AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN PLAINS. SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO NE CO BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NW CO
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING THERE NOW IN ITS
WAKE.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM NW AZ INTO SRN UT SENDING SOME
CLOUDS INTO SE UT/SW CO AT MID-MORNING. WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
THIS SRN UT UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY
EVENING...WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH...HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED THREATS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS
FLOWS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUSTAINING LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE FLAT TOPS AND PORTIONS OF THE ROAN PLATEAU. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE SO ADDED SOME ISOLATED POPS TO
THOSE AREAS.

00Z/KGJT SOUNDING CONTAINED 0.9 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH
IS DOWN BY ABOUT A TENTH FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE.
DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. GIVEN MOISTURE LEVELS
...SAFE TO SAY THAT STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS DIURNAL
CIRCULATIONS BREAK DOWN SOME STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OVER THE VALLEYS. LESS CAPE AVAILABLE FOR TODAY/S
STORMS ACCORDING TO BUFR SOUNDINGS THOUGH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
DEBRIS/MUD FLOWS.

AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...AFTERNOON HIGHS LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR OR JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RE-DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ARE SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS.
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF HIGHER POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE WRAPPING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
IMPINGING ON AN AIRMASS CONTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH. STANDS TO REASON THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS INDICATED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FAVORS THE USUAL
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING IN FROM SRN UT
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND KVEL AND EXTREME NW CO.

STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP...AND STORMS MOVING
OVER TAF SITES COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA BY 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...JAD



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