Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 152101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
301 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Should continue unseasonably warm and remain dry across most of
our CWA through Sunday night. The only exception is the far
northwest corner of our CWA, including the eastern Uinta Mountains
where minimal threat of precipitation will be possible. Then a
little better chance of showers Sunday night across the northern
border region of our CWA as an embedded disturbance swings on
through. Breezy southwest winds are expected again by Sunday
afternoon across our CWA, similar to this afternoon and yesterday
afternoon. And again expect localized fire weather concerns where
fuels are considered vulnerable.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Little change is seen in the pattern and sensible weather for our
CWA until late Tuesday and Wednesday when a more significant
shortwave trough is likely to roll across our CWA. Continues to be
some significant differences between GFS and EC models on
intensity and speed of movement of trough over our area. EC has
been consistently showing a very progressive system with moisture
mainly remaining north of I-70, then moving well east of our area
by late Wednesday afternoon. The GFS is now leaning more towards
the EC solution, having shown in yesterday`s runs a deepening
trough over our CWA which kept the troughiness and moisture over
our CWA into Thursday morning. Due to consistency considerations,
have more confidence in the EC solution than the GFS.

Both models then develop upper high/ridge into the western states
for the remainder of the week, with the EC building a higher
amplitude ridge than the GFS, with the EC supporting higher
temperatures across our CWA than the GFS.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

VFR conditions and CIGS above ILS breakpoints will prevail through
the next 24 hours as a dry stable atmosphere remains in place.
Meanwhile, atmospheric mixing deepens in response to rising
temperatures which will wipe out LLWS at mountain TAF sites prior
to 18Z. However, deep mixing will bring breezy southwest winds to
all TAF sites through 01Z/Sunday. Decreased winds after 01Z will
shift to normal drainage flows by 06Z which will persist into
Sunday morning. LLWS will become an issue once again for most TAF
sites later tonight.




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