Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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975
FXUS65 KGJT 160426
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1026 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Hard to pick up even a wisp of a cloud in the sky this afternoon
as the forecast area remains under a cool and stable airmass.
Today will be the last day of widespread below seasonal
temperatures before the warming trend kicks into high gear
tomorrow as high pressure amplifies over the Intermountain West.
Daytime highs Monday will be right around normal, about 5 to 10
degrees warmer than today`s, under sunny skies. Overnight lows
should generally remain above freezing for those lower elevation
zones south of I-70, though a few pockets of at or below 32
degrees are not out of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High pressure will remain overhead for Tuesday for yet another
benign weather day. A weak wave will quickly trek through the
region on Wednesday which looks to virtually have almost no impact
on our forecast area, minus some passing high level clouds. By
daybreak Thursday our next Pacific storm will be dropping down
from the Gulf of Alaska to become a broad upper level trough
situated just off the coast of the northwestern CONUS.
Southwesterly flow will increase over eastern Utah and western
Colorado late Thursday and continuing into Friday as the trough
moves further inland and approaches the Great Basin. A cold front
associated with this system will be on our doorstep Friday night
with scattered showers developing out ahead and along the frontal
boundary with precipitation potentially being enhanced during the
overnight hours as a weak jet moves overhead. Snow levels will
remain high at the onset of this storm with 700mb temperatures
ranging from 3 to 6 degrees C before cooling to -1 to -5 degrees C
in the wake of the front.

Extended models continue to disagree with the progression of this
storm out of our forecast area Saturday evening and beyond with a
potential cutoff low still coming into play in some of the
solutions. Therefore, confidence remains low for the end of next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Any cigs over the next 24 hours will be AOA 20kft agl and these
will mainly be thin high cirrus clouds. Winds remain on the light
side and should follow the typical terrain cycles. VFR dominates
the forecast with almost zero probability of seeing lower flight
categories.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...TGJT



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