Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE


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