Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 231741
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP ACROSS THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS CLOCKING IN NEAR 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
MIN TEMPS UP WITH MANY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS STILL SITTING IN THE
60S AS OF 3 AM. SOME LET UP IN THE GUST ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SUNRISE...BEFORE WE START MIXING THINGS UP AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL ON THE WINDY SIDE AND WITH MINIMAL EFFORTS IN THE
GRIDS...WAS ABLE TO GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUST FIELDS IN THE
45 TO 50 MPH RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST UTAH UP INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO.
AS A RESULT...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR THAT
SWATH THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO ADVISORY MAY BE A LITTLE
LONG...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL ADJUST THAT TIMING.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND FIELDS...CONVECTION WILL BE FIRING BY
MIDDAY INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED ALTHOUGH A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MID EVENING WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS SHRTWV RIDGING BUILDS IN ON
SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH THE WARM
START AND SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO WINDS PROVIDING SOME DOWNSLOPE
HEATING IN FAVORED VALLEY. SUNDAY TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 3 TO 6
DEGREES COOLER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

AN UNSETTLED WEEK IS IN STORE AS WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
YET ANOTHER LOW AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. LATEST TRACK DRIVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
TO THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD LOWER WITH H7
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -5C BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDING
ACROSS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE UP AND DOWN ALL WEEK...LOCKING IN AROUND NORMAL WHEN
EVERYTHING IS AVERAGED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL
EXIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z.
DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH UNTIL WINDS
SWITCH TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT KEGE
LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTN. THUNDER EXPECTED
TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION AT TAF SITES...BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH
FOR ESSENTIALLY HIGH-BASED LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE COULD CAUSE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARM
TEMPS AND LOW RH VALUES AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS STORM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 15% EXCEPT FOR IN SOUTHEASTERN UT AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CO. WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY PERIODICALLY BE MET IN UT FIRE ZONE 491 AND CO FIRE ZONE 207
...DISCUSSIONS WITH LAND MANAGERS REVEALED GREEN-UP CONTINUES IN
THOSE AREAS SO NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. EVEN
SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002-006-007-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...BEN
FIRE WEATHER...MMS/JDC



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