Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 251820
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1220 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS REFLECTION ON THE SURFACE...OR A
SECONDARY FRONT...HAS MOVED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. AT NOON TODAY IT HAS MADE IT OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND BLANDING. IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE STRONG GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED...WITH A
FEW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH REPORTED AT AREA ASOS/AWOS. SHOWERS HAVE
ALSO ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND THE
EASTERN VALLEYS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PICKED UP A QUICK FEW INCHES OR MORE AS IT
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE WEAKER
OVER THE SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH ACCUMULATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS. IT APPEARS THE BEST ACTION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

BY MID MORNING THE NORTH HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO CLEAR...HOWEVER AN
AREA OF INSTABILITY IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH HAS MOVED
OVER NORTHWEST CO. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP THERE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND CRAIG TO MEEKER EASTWARD. BUT THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND NOT AS HEAVY AS WHAT OCCURRED
EARLIER TODAY. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS. FEEL THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL MAINLY STAY ALONG THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS TO THE WY BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND WILL HAVE WORKED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNRISE. GUSTY
NW WINDS IN COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THERE
WILL BE IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE AND BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY IMPACT THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW WAS INITIALLY
LIMITED TO ABOVE 7000FT BUT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE NW CO MTNS THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE TODAY WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS AND SNOW WILL END QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNSET.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST VALLEYS
TONIGHT INCLUDING MUCH OF SE UTAH AND SW TO FAR WEST CO WHERE
FRUIT TREES HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO NW CO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THAT MAY ASSIST WITH DRAINAGE
WINDS FOR AREAS IN THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS SUCH AS PALISADE AND
PAONIA. BUT VALLEY BOTTOMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIP BELOW FREEZING.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FLEXES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. NW GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE BUT WILL BE
LIGHT. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH MOST AREAS BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SW U.S.. REMNANT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND END FRI
MORNING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BRINGING BACK WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT FLATTENING THE RIDGE A BIT AND DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE. A SMALL AMOUNT OF COOLING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD RESULT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRY TROUGH MOVING TROUGH AZ TOWARD
MEXICO WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
SHOWS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SPLIT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THEN GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP RESULTING.
HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT...TENDING MORE TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

BRISK GRADIENT WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVED
ACROSS THE ARE THIS MORNING. THESE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MAINLY THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND
22Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS MAY
BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...HOWEVER TAF
SITES KASE...KTEX MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.

BY 02Z ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH


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