Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 220923
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
323 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

The large low pressure system over the NW U.S. responsible for
the windy conditions of the last few days moved from Oregon to NW
Montana with its center cross into Canada as of about 3 am. The
system`s surface cold front was moving across the CO and UT
border over NW CO and stretching back to the SW. The frontal band
clouds were over NE UT and NW CO showed decreasing enhancement as
the best dynamics move north. Throughout today this band of clouds
with isolated to low-end scattered precipitation will move slowly
east. Aside from wave clouds over ridges the southern half of the
forecast area will remain nearly cloudless.

Tonight and Monday will see little change with southwest flow
continuing and low areal coverage precipitation over northern
areas. Temperatures should remain near to a few degrees below
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Additional low pressure energy over the Pacific Northwest will
keep a mean long wave trough over the western CONUS through the
period. The flow will remain from the southwest through midweek,
with typical springtime afternoon breezes. One embedded shortwave
passing on Tue will increase winds somewhat, and may bring a
slight chance of showers/afternoon thunderstorms mainly to the
northern portion.

Then a better defined low pressure system will break off from the
mean trough during the second half of the week. While forecast
details are still uncertain, this will result in a better chance
of showers and late day thunderstorms on Thu and Fri. Models
indicate conditions may remain unsettled into the weekend.

Look for a warming trend early in the work week, however temps are
still expected to stay below normal. Then temps should cool
midweek through Fri, with a possible rebound on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Vfr conditions will prevail the next 24 hours, but winds will be
a bit of an issue. Low level wind shear will dissipated after
about 15z as winds aloft start to mix with low level winds. A
cold front will slowly drag through the area through today and
tonight, but clouds will help prevent surface winds from
increasing as much as Saturday. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms should accompany the front.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



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