Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 261804
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1204 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

HOT AND DRY CONTINUES AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS ERODED AS THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE BULGES INTO THIS REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ENDING QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING SUN. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIND GUSTS THAN RAIN. CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UTAH AMPLIFIES TODAY. WITH WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN MOISTURE STARVED TODAY. FORECAST MODELS INITIALIZED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE HIGH END AT 00Z YESTERDAY EVENING SO
THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEFINITELY BE QUITE DRY WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN JUANS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK H5 VORT
MAX ACROSS EASTERN UTAH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALSO CAPE REACHES
2000J/KG+ ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS SO THE UPTICK IN
CONVECTION SEEMS REALISTIC. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP REALLY
THOUGH...JUST HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS SW COLORADO ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MOISTURE GRADUALLY FILLS
INTO THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE DRIVES IN MORE WETTING RAINS BY MIDWEEK
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER THE STRONG RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BETWEEN 20Z TO 02Z
THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS AND LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC/JOE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.