Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 121726
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1026 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Not much to talk about in the short term period. A portion of the
subtropical jet will move overhead today and will cause some mid
to high clouds to form. Skies will vary from partly to mostly
cloudy today. No precipitation is expected as no surface features
will move through and even if they did, the atmosphere is so dry
that nothing would fall. Southwesterly flow will keep temperatures
warm.

Similar conditions expected again tomorrow though there should be
less clouds to contend with. Temperatures should rise a few
degrees staying warm for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Dry conditions will persist Monday night in response to a
flattening ridge of high pressure overhead. Upper level winds will
shift to a tighter southwesterly flow as a weak shortwave
disturbance treks through the northern Great Basin. Breezy
conditions can be expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of this wave
and under the influence of a 100kt jet. As the previous forecaster
mentioned, this shortwave is fairly dry and will just barely clip
our northern CWA late Tuesday and should only bring some light
flurries to the northern mountains of eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

Benign weather will return for Wednesday under a more zonal flow
before a more substantial and wetter upper level trough moves into
the forecast area late Thursday and into Friday. The GFS is
currently the more progressive and colder solution compared to the
Euro but regardless both solutions show a cold and unsettled end to
the work week with the Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe
looking to be the most active period. A blend of model solutions
would drop snow levels from between 8000 to 9500 feet Thursday
afternoon down to the high elevation valleys further north and to
between 7000 and 8000 feet down south by daybreak Friday. This
system will definitely be the main weather maker to watch over the
coming forecast shifts because, once this system is ushered out of
our region on Friday afternoon, dry northwesterly flow will re-
establish itself overhead through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1026 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

High level cloudiness with be thickening through the day. This
will have no impacts to TAF sites other than leaving winds on the
light side and favoring the typical diurnal patterns. VFR
conditions dominate the forecast over the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...TGJT



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