Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 171007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
407 AM MDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Model soundings pretty much tell the story this morning with
decent moisture in place and inverted v signatures in the
valleys. Precipitable water values nearing an inch across the
area, so plenty of juice to fuel convection later this morning and
through this afternoon. convection will be developing by midday
with focus along the mountains and high valleys. gusty outflow
winds the primary threat although dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning, small hail and brief moderate to heavy rain cannot be
ruled out. Convection lingers through the night with weak wave
working through. Temperatures will be running near to slightly
above normal with mild overnight temps with cloud cover and
improved sfc moisture in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2016

The Great Basin trough shears splits and shears on Thursday and
Friday in response to a stronger trough diving into the northern
Rockies. The upper flow veers to west then northwest bringing a
drying trend into the weekend. Thursday`s storms will have more
shear to work with, so stronger storms are possible mainly over
the central forecast area in the best mix of moisture and shear.

Low amplitude westerlies will continue over the northern Rockies
into early next week, producing a dry west flow. Subtropical
moisture will be suppressed to our south. So this weak monsoon
season is not producing up to average for this the wettest time of
year for the southern and central zones.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Scattered storms will develop over the mountains by 18z with a
few storms drifting off and impacting the lower valleys after 20z.
Erratic gusty outflow winds will be the primary impacts with some
storms capable of brief moderate to heavy rain, where lowered
cigs/vsby to brief MVFR are possible.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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