Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 111028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

Still seeing a few light showers early this morning, mainly along
north facing slopes as we continue to squeeze out all available
moisture. Few decent snowfall amounts have come in with a foot
plus reported on top of the Grand Mesa and in Silverton down in
the San Juans. The lingering showers and stratus decks will be
eroding this morning with bulk of snowfall expected to be done by
9 am. Dry and stable conditions expected this afternoon as we
await the next system that will be later tonight and Friday.
Rather energetic NW flow will be in play through this period with
moderate moisture available. Classic set-up for our northern zones
near Steamboat down to Vail to pick-up at least light to
potentially moderate snowfall amounts from midnight through late
Friday afternoon. Confidence in winter highlights is close, but
not quite there with recent model performance of over-forecasting
snowfall amounts. As a result, will hold off an any potential
highlights, which at the moment would be confined to the higher
Park Range Peaks. Elsewhere, after some sun today, cloud cover
will be rolling back in overnight. Could see a few showers sneak
down as far south as the northwest San Juans by Friday morning,
but nothing significant in the accumulation department is

Little movement with temperatures are expected the next few days
with readings generally running from 5 to 10 degrees above

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

Lingering snow showers in northwest flow will slowly diminish Friday
night across the northern and central mountains of western Colorado.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the western US on Saturday
and slowly move east over the Great Basin by early next week. Mostly
cloudy skies, especially across the north, will continue through
this period as weak storm systems brush by to our east. Otherwise,
dry and seasonably warm temperatures are expected. The ridge will
flatten by midweek as the next storm system impacts the Pacific
Northwest. A more active pattern is forecasted to impact our area by
the latter part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 328 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

Low stratus and patchy fog will remain present in some valleys
through mid-morning before dissipating for the day. In addition, a
few light snow showers will also be found along north facing
slopes of the western Colorado mountains. Expect morning mountain
obscuration before cloud cover dissipates. KTEX is expected to be
impacted by the light snow showers through 15Z before showers end
for the day. Areas of IFR/LIFR CIGS should be expected along the
north facing slopes with gradual improvement expected after 15Z.
VFR conditions are expected elsewhere through 00Z/Fri.

After 00Z, cloud cover will increase once again with showers
developing across the northern and central mountains in western
Colorado. Showers will become more numerous after 06Z with
mountain obscuration likely along with widespread IFR conds in and
near snow showers. Terminal sites east of a line from KVEl to
KMTJ will see the biggest impacts overnight.




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