Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

WRAPAROUND FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IS
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR AN IR SATELLITE LOOP. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW SLOWLY
CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
CONTINUE ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE UINTA MOUNTAINS SO THE ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON WED. HOWEVER PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH ITS CENTER OVER
LAS VEGAS BY LATE WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW BECOME
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH.
ALSO THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME WARMING ALOFT...SO
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

LOOK FOR AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER ALL
MOUNTAINS AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10K FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES E-NE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO
ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT. MODELS MORE-OR-LESS SHOW THIS
WESTERN LOW AND THE PREVIOUS LOW WILL REMAIN LINKED...WITH OUR
FORECAST AREA POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS MARRIAGE MAY LAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER OUR REGION.
SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL AT TIMES ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. BUT SNOW
MAY AT TIMES DROP INTO THE HIGHER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND IN THE LATE NIGHT PERIODS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT
NIGHT. IN SPITE OF THESE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS...NIGHTTIME
FREEZES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN...DUE TO THE BLANKETING MOIST AIR MASS. THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOISTURE AND SOME DRIER AIR ARE MIXING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PLAINS STORM. THIS IS KEEPING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING. BESIDES THE SHOWERS WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...KTEX AND KASE MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PLAGUED WITH LOWER FLIGHT CRITERIA CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO SNOW
OR FOG THROUGH 09Z-12Z. KMTJ HAS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF THESE
CONDITIONS AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE FORECAST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z ON WEDNESDAY BUT
PROBABILITIES STILL QUITE LOW THESE WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT FORECAST
TERMINALS SO OPTIMISTIC TAFS WILL BE FORECAST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT


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