Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 291658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CAUSING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE MTNS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SOME AFTN CUMULUS. MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMTN WEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PHASE IN WITH MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...WORKING WITH THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED A BIT QUICKER
TO INTRODUCE DRYING BEHIND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. EXPECT
THIS WILL REDUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER EASTERN UTAH THOUGH
BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO/S HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JET PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP THE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE
REGION WILL REVERT TO A REGIME OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FAVORING THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 19Z TO 02Z ISOLD TSTMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTS FROM KTEX EAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL CO ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND KCCU...KASE AND NORTHEAST OF KGUC. BRIEF
SHOWERS AND OUTFLOW WIND GUST TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC


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