Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 021013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FINALLY COMES TO AN END TODAY THOUGH SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING THE
SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE HRRR/RAP13 ARE REALLY DOWN PLAYING THIS
ACTIVITY AND A BIT MORE INCLINED TO FOLLOW THEIR OUTPUT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOWER THAN NORMAL BUT FINALLY...TOMORROW...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH SOME CU
WILL FORM OVER THE SAN JUANS WITH A PASSING SHOWER POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND AND REACH NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE ENTIRE U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN TO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA AND ANOTHER LOW COMES ASHORE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS SINCE THERE IS NOWHERE FOR IT TO GO. TEMPS
WILL JUMP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WED AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
START STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS
TO TIGHTEN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD TO SCTD.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BUT GFS
HIGHLIGHTING MOST PRECIP TO FALL OVER CENTRAL/SRN WYOMING WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS STORM.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM
ABOUT I-70 NORTHWARD. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE SO CONFIDENCE NOT THAT
HIGH THAT WHAT HAS BEEN DESCRIBED HERE WILL COME TO PASS. AT THIS
POINT IT`S SAFE TO SAY THAT ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SAN JUANS BEING FAVORED THOUGH
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70 MAY SEEM FORMATION. LOW TO MID LEVEL
CIGS N OF I-70 THIS MORNING WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY BUT S OF
I-70 THEY WILL LIKELY HANG ON. ONCE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
FORM...BRIEF MVFR TO VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS/VIS. AFTER
03Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR



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