Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 260933
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL START THE DAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PACNW VERY SLOWLY STARTS TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THAT HAVE BEEN FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO INDICATING A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WHICH...WITH ALL
THE ABOVE...WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE. CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN AROUND NOONTIME WHEN THE FIRST VORT MAX MOVES OVERHEAD FROM
WEST TO EAST THOUGH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LOOK TO
REACH A MAXIMUM FROM 3PM ONWARDS AS THAT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS. MODELS KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SO FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
DROP...AS IT ALWAYS DOES...AFTER SUNSET. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY HAVE MADE IT AS FAR AS NRN
ID SO EXPECT ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THOUGH
MODELS HINTING AT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE ONLY
REALLY BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE GETTING
CLOSE TO NORMAL THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE BEGINNING OF JUNE MAY ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE JUNE...BUT THAT IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT A "SNAILS PACE" PREVAILS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH NEEDS ABOUT 2-3 DAYS TO
REACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEFORE REACHING WYOMING...PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH SENDS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO COLORADO. THIS HELPS FUEL DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN WYOMING.

THE DRYING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
DRIER DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN DRY AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS
EACH AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO COLORADO BY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH EACH PASSING DAY. BY NEXT MONDAY...ANY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE RELEGATED TO THE COLORADO SPINE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR SUMMER ASCENT WITH DESERT VALLEYS
REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

-SHRA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BUT ACTIVITY STILL PERSISTS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIL...KASE...AND KEGE. CIGS FROM -SHRA WILL BE BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z.
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z...ALTHOUGH LOCAL BR MAY FORM
ALONG RIVER/VALLEY BOTTOMS AROUND DAYBREAK IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING
OCCURS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 19Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE WEST YIELDS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WITH LOCALIZED TSRAGS. CIGS
FROM STORMS WILL BE BELOW ILS BREAKPOINT FOR MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY
TAF SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF


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